LAZY DOG Picks

[Deaddog]

Lazy Dog, I like your analysis! Congrats on the nice gain.

HERE IS SOME MORE WISDOM FROM MY FAVORITE GURU (not Gura, as in skiracer), Marty Chenard. Pay attention to what the big boys are doing...

RB:
Thanks for the link.

What has always troubled me about that theory is whom the institutions are selling to or buying from? There’s way more volume than the individual investor can handle. So it has to be smart money vs. dumb money, but how do I tell who’s who?

It makes sense that when there is more supply than demand the price will fall, But attempting to determine why the supply is out there is any ones guess. You can only trade what you see.

One thing I look at is volume. If price is up on above average volume you have to assume that institutions are buying. If you have no price movement on above average volume it suggests that someone is distributing. Even then unless you personally know the participants on both side of the trade it’s only a wild guess.

The trick seems to be to make more on your winners than you lose with your bad guesses.

[riverbabe]

RB:
Thanks for the link.

What has always troubled me about that theory is whom the institutions are selling to or buying from? There’s way more volume than the individual investor can handle. So it has to be smart money vs. dumb money, but how do I tell who’s who?

It makes sense that when there is more supply than demand the price will fall, But attempting to determine why the supply is out there is any ones guess. You can only trade what you see.

One thing I look at is volume. If price is up on above average volume you have to assume that institutions are buying. If you have no price movement on above average volume it suggests that someone is distributing. Even then unless you personally know the participants on both side of the trade it’s only a wild guess.

The trick seems to be to make more on your winners than you lose with your bad guesses.

I agree. But with all the hedge funds hedging, the computer algorithims working their devious magic, the dumb money selling at the bottom and buying at the top, there are always shares to trade by the institutions. For example, when I was a "trusting" broker customer, they always seemed to have shares for me to buy or sell off market from their own account. Go figure. Only the fearless and the most agile (that's us on both counts) should be trading in the market these days with the decks stacked against us. Personally, I am short NFLX and made bucks shorting GMCR last week. L&K

[riverbabe]

feeling good

Personally, I am short NFLX and made bucks shorting GMCR last week. L&K

Coming back slowly slowly from my August losses. This AM bot NFLX @ 74.88 to cover 107.00. Now that's better! Also bot Teradata (TDC) @ 56.01. Barron's sees 80-90 on a takeover. Reports Nov. 3. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB...d=yahoobarrons http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Terada....html?x=0&.v=1

[Deaddog]

RBabe:
Glad to hear you're doing OK; It looks good on you.

Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to show me it's serious about going up. I'm basically a long side trader.

I want to see a definite trend, althought I'm getting a little bored sitting on my hands.

Looking at THI; Us Canucks thrive on coffee and donuts.

[riverbabe]

!

RBabe:
Glad to hear you're doing OK; It looks good on you.

Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to show me it's serious about going up. I'm basically a long side trader.

I want to see a definite trend, althought I'm getting a little bored sitting on my hands.

Looking at THI; Us Canucks thrive on coffee and donuts.

Hey, was up there three times this summer (twice for funerals). THI also has pretty good soup and sandwiches! Loaded up on Coffee Crisp again. These Yanquis just don't know what they're missing!

[Deaddog]

Hey, was up there three times this summer (twice for funerals).

The Great White North isn’t a bad place to summer. Not really fond of the winters, I’d just as soon spend them where I can find my golf ball. Sorry to hear you had to plan your trips around funerals. My part of the country (way out west) is really quite beautiful. Even bigger fish than you are fondling.

In most parts of the county THI aka Timmy’s is a landmark. You rarely find one that isn’t busy. Everyone in town knows where it is. Coffee is passable and the evil pastries counteract most attempts at a diet.

Profit margin 24%; ROE 53%; Reasonable debt/equity; .42
Earning announcement Nov 10. Who knows?

Anyway I was going to play the breakout @ 50 but now I’m waiting for the retracement. A little gun shy when the market is confused.

[riverbabe]

BC??? Alberta??? Sounds like heaven. I'm from Waterloo, Ont. (aka RIMM country). P.S. "Timmy" was my nickname growing up, as my maiden name was Timm. Actually I once took music theory classes with one other student whose name was Tim Horton. I've always wondered...?

[riverbabe]

Anyway I was going to play the breakout @ 50 but now I’m waiting for the retracement. A little gun shy when the market is confused.

The market is going to respond one way or the other in the next few days when the EU decides on a TARP-like bailout or not. Watch for it!

[Deaddog]

BC??? Alberta??? Sounds like heaven. I'm from Waterloo, Ont. (aka RIMM country). P.S. "Timmy" was my nickname growing up, as my maiden name was Timm. Actually I once took music theory classes with one other student whose name was Tim Horton. I've always wondered...?

BC.
Tim Horton was a hockey player; played for the Maple leafs in their hayday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Horton

You are much too young.

[riverbabe]

BC.
Tim Horton was a hockey player; played for the Maple leafs in their hayday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Horton

You are much too young.

Thanks for the link. And yes, I am too young.

[skiracer]

Thanks for the link. And yes, I am too young.

but very experienced!

[riverbabe]

but very experienced!

Any experience I've had has been learning from the best of the best!

[Deaddog]

Going to get my feet wet again.
Started a position in IFSIA on friday $13.30

Strictly a technical trade. On thursday there was a spike down on volume that recovered by the end of the day. I bought when it traded above thurs high.

Short term trade with a tight stop.( A gamble)

[Deaddog]

Going to get my feet wet again.
Started a position in IFSIA on friday $13.30

Stopped out @ 12.46
Loss 6.32%

[Deaddog]

Picked up some PRGO near the close today @ 89.68
Obviously a good stock but I'll cut and run if it drops.