LAZY DOG Picks

[Deaddog]

I have added a new rule:

Don’t let yourself get talked into a fishing trip and ignore the market for 10 days.
Although the company was excellent, the single malt ancient and the Cubans exquisite, it turned out to be a more expensive than I had planned.

A costly error as BMY tanked: no stop in place. The original gap down did the most damage. I’m guessing that a stop might have been triggered around 33 giving me a 5% Loss. The ensuing drop to today’s low cost another 5%.

The question now is would I buy the stock today? Well I might if it were to show some sign of a turn around. So I have placed a hard stop under today’s low and will wait and see if I can recover just a bit of the losses. I don’t see the stock recovering to the 36 area but there might be a test of the gap. Tight leash for now.

[Deaddog]

Sure rub it in.

This kind of thing happens to me a lot, but that one time I don’t take the stop I could get killed. I miss a lot of opportunities but I always have capital for the next opportunity that comes along. Just part of my trading strategy.

A quick scan of the market showed at least 48 stocks that were up 15% in the last few days. I didn’t own a single one of them.

One of them was NUS that I got out of with a breakeven trade back in April. Now there’s an example of a stop that worked.

[jiesen]

DDD Sold @ 33
Closed position at break even:
Lets see what the conference call brings.

Here's a perfect example of why I choose not to use stops... DDD was up 9.9% yesterday and is now >15% over my entry. This is going to be a great one.

[Deaddog]

CLGX:

Buy @ 22.96 Stop under yesterdays low 22.63 Target = 24.30
Capital at risk = 0.2%

[Deaddog]

DDD Sold @ 33
Closed position at break even:
Lets see what the conference call brings.

[Deaddog]

DLR: Buy @ 74.27
Stop = 73.30 Target = 80.50
Capital at risk = 0.25%
Pull back play

[Deaddog]

AN: Buy @ 39.46 Stop = 38.95 T arget = 43.70
Capital at risk = 0.25%

Pull back play.

[Deaddog]

FSLR: Moving stop to a close below13.80

Since I bought the stock it has traded sideways not really making new highs or new lows. A close below the lowest swing low of the last 10 days will trigger a sell.

[Deaddog]

Looks like it could be one of those days with the market selling off.
VRSN stopped out @ 41.75
Loss of 2.48%: Loss of capital= 0.3%

[Deaddog]

SEIC:
Buy @ 21.18
Stop @ 19.65 Target = 25.90
Momentum play along with cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart.
Capital at risk = 0.5%

[Deaddog]

Picked up more TC @ 2.62

Now have full position. Sell order for 20% of position in at 3.28

[jiesen]

I'd sell the stock if I found a company in the same sector with a clearly superior product selling more units then DDD's, or if I found a reason to think that 3D printing will not be as huge as I currently believe it will be.

Also, I'd sell it if it hit $300 next year, or if I thought the growth slowed down enough in the revenues to think something was amiss.

I'm not usually a short-term trader, so I think I'll have enough time while I hold onto it to evaluate this company some more, and either buy more of it, or sell and move it into better opportunities as they arise.

I consider my downside risk to be 100%, since anything can and will happen to this company in the long term, but the upside is nearly unlimited on this one. Hopefully, if there's another public company doing the same thing, only better, I'll find it and invest in that one, too. Right now I'm looking at PRLB, as they may be one other possibility... smaller, but growing even faster!

[Deaddog]

I think DDD is better played without a stop, or with an eye for reentry if you do get stopped out on it. This one will could make it to 300 soon, imo. Just bought some a little while ago, gonna keep it for the long haul.

What would cause you to sell the stock?

I imagine DDD must have reasonable fundamentals; otherwise it wouldn’t be on my watch list. This portfolio was set up to trade only stocks with Mr Market type fundies. (Revenue and sales growth, profit margins and momentun). The entry’s and exits are strictly technical.

I‘m a short-term trader and would never consider placing a trade without some kind of exit strategy both on the downside and on the upside.

I try not to get too attached to a stock. Nortel was my teacher on that point. If a stock performs to my satisfaction I can hold it for a long time. But there isn’t a stock in any of my portfolio’s that doesn’t have an exit plan.

[jiesen]

DDD; A rebound play.
Bought above the prior days high @ 32.97
Stop = 31.25 with an initial target of 37.5
Capital at risk = 0.5%

VRSN: Another reversal play (part position)
Bought @ 42.81
Stop = 41.80 Initial target = 45.40
Capital at Risk = 0.25%

I think DDD is better played without a stop, or with an eye for reentry if you do get stopped out on it. This one will could make it to 300 soon, imo. Just bought some a little while ago, gonna keep it for the long haul.

[Deaddog]

DDD; A rebound play.
Bought above the prior days high @ 32.97
Stop = 31.25 with an initial target of 37.5
Capital at risk = 0.5%

VRSN: Another reversal play (part position)
Bought @ 42.81
Stop = 41.80 Initial target = 45.40
Capital at Risk = 0.25%