I want to short something

[peanuts]

Tell me about a potential profitable short sell. I hate this market and want to cheer a stock price going down.

[Agredior]

Tell me about a potential profitable short sell. I hate this market and want to cheer a stock price going down.

Market being in an up trend makes shorting a bit risky. I've shorted BIDU a few times in the last few months. It is looking like a short again, if the market doesn't fight it.

[em26jamie]

Market being in an up trend makes shorting a bit risky. I've shorted BIDU a few times in the last few months. It is looking like a short again, if the market doesn't fight it.

But BIDU is due for earnings next Monday and they have a history of big upswings on earnings. I wouldn't short them now.

[Agredior]

But BIDU is due for earnings next Monday and they have a history of big upswings on earnings. I wouldn't short them now.

I agree. Earnings and the market trend work against a short; however, if it registers an earnings miss, then it bears watching.

[skiracer]

If I were looking for a stock to short right now one of my first choices would be ROST. Take a look at the weekly chart and if this stock isnt due for a correction right now or within the immediate short term then I don't know a thing about charts or the technical aspects of trading. This stock could easilly go to 44 in the next couple of weeks. Trade on the long side at your own risk.

[Deaddog]

Wow!! What do you see in the charts that lead you to believe in an imminent sell off?
Maybe you can post a chart.

[skiracer]

Wow!! What do you see in the charts that lead you to believe in an imminent sell off?
Maybe you can post a chart.

deaddog,
I'm talking about a correction. I will post a chart with my thoughts as to why when I get a chance this afternoon or tonight. but in the meantime I would offer these points. my elliot wave count has it at or nearing the end of the 5th wave and then the abc corrective waves. I think the corrective wave could take it down to around 42-44 levels. look at the weekly back in april/may of 2011 and the abc corrective waves took it down from high of around 41-42 to 32-34 levels and if you look at the RSI scale at that time it was way above the 70 line into the overbought area. at the present on the RSI scale it is again tracking over the 70 line into the over bought area and my count has it at the end of its 5th wave again. and the volume has been slacking off since the beginning of 2012 and it has been moving progressively higher over the 70 line since nov/dec of 2011. Also those last 3 candles indicate selling with the longer bottom wicks and no top wicks. of course only my interpretation of events. one other thing. ernie always finds them at the top or peak of their move up on very strong fundamentals. I have known him for years and have tracked his picks on numerous occasions and it is always the same. he finds great stocks and not to say this one wont work out for him in the end but its just the timing that is skewed. he doesnt pay attention to the technical aspects of the timing on the chart. fundamentally the stock is strong and fundamental timing indicates a strong stock but it doesnt work that way. this stock is ripe for traders to start taking some profits. the wave count indicates that, the RSI is indicating that, and the diminishing volume indicates that. all are only my interpretation and opinion. I would be patient and wait and watch for what i feel is the inevitable correction on profit taking and then buy it much cheaper after the correction. its a good stock but the timing is not a good time to buy right now. patience will pay off over the immediate short term right now for a great shorting opportunity. and if you take a look at the monthly it is even a better indicator of everything I have mentioned above.

[Deaddog]

deaddog,
I will post a chart with my thoughts as to why when I get a chance this afternoon or tonight.

Looking forward to your analysis.

What I see is that for the last few years if you bought in Jan and sold in Apr you’d be in the money.

Shorting Ernie’s picks for a quick drop has crossed my mind.

[billyjoe]

Deaddog,
I can guarantee that if you short all of Ernies picks you will lose. There were a few that really tanked at the onset but in the longrun the majority hit his target. Picking and choosing the losers along with timing the drop correctly would be next to impossible.

---------------billy

[wooish]

I agree with Ski, it's due for a pull back. Since it's Mr. Market's pick I wouldn't short it. I will wait for a pull back possibly around $40-$44 range.

[Deaddog]

Deaddog,
I can guarantee that if you short all of Ernies picks you will lose. There were a few that really tanked at the onset but in the longrun the majority hit his target. Picking and choosing the losers along with timing the drop correctly would be next to impossible.

---------------billy

I'd never short a momentun stock without a tight stop. Although many of Ernie's picks hit the target a lot of the time they will retrace a couple bucks from his entry before they do.

[skiracer]

Deaddog,
I can guarantee that if you short all of Ernies picks you will lose. There were a few that really tanked at the onset but in the longrun the majority hit his target. Picking and choosing the losers along with timing the drop correctly would be next to impossible.

---------------billy

I am not knocking ernie. what i am speaking about now and have done so numerous times in the past and been right more times than not is the timing of his entries which i kind of explained in my previous post. there is the "best time" and there are "bad times" for entering any trade regardless of the stocks fundamental or technical strength at any given period of time. I'g going to post the weekly and monthly charts for ROST and illustrate exactly what I described in my previous post. If I were of the inclination to do so I would go back to every one of his previous trades and look at the entry points and I would bet without even doing so that the much higher percentage of them dropped a decent amount before them went up. It has nothing to do with the fundamental strength of the stock and everything to do with the technical aspects of the chart and the timing at that moment of entry. some of my biggest shorts have been on ernies trades at the moment of his entry and then the same stocks have recovered and made it to his expected and set exit point. but the issue is not that the stock wont reach his goals as much it is of the timing of the entry and where the stock is at that moment according to technical analysis of its chart. everyone does what they want with their money. im just saying that with a large percentage of these trades patience would have paid off by waiting and getting in cheaper or perhaps taking advantage of shorting the stock initially, if the chart indicates that, and taking the gains on the short or correction trade and then making a well timed entry on the long side at a much cheaper price level. thus giving yourself the advantage of making the points getting back to ernies entry point plus the 16% target he sets initially. It takes patience, control, and initiating your plan and sticking to it. plus walking away at your preset stop if it doesnt go the way you expect it which is always a reality. but i would bet that if you asked anyone that has been here awhile and has blindly followed ernies picks and trades they would confirm what I am talking about having been thru some pretty disasterous initial drops only to recover and reach his goals.

[wooish]

Well said Ski and totally agree. I can name a few examples like AGP, TQNT etc..

[skiracer]

so here are the two charts. the first is the weekly and the second is the monthly. both are supported by my annotations. just my opinion but supported none the less by factual and substantive evidence whether you agree or not. I love the opportunity getting ready to present itself for a decent short and will make the trade once I see the move down beginning which I would expect to happen the in the near term or at the first drop in the market itself. there is an abundance of room for profit taking in this stock and trade. I would also welcome anyone to present the case for making the trade to the long side right now and for the continuation of the stock moving higher from this point.


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here is the monthly:

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[billyjoe]

Ski,
I agree many of Ernie's picks take a drop along the way. But in my opinion it would be more difficult to pick a short from his buys, and make a profit in the short term than it would be to hold for the longer term and take a gain. Maybe it's just a matter of short vs. long term holds and of course timing.

------------billy