AAPL ==> The Painkiller Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    AAPL ==> The Painkiller Winner

    Sorry for the delay in this write up, but I was playing in the Little Tiger golf outing yesterday and then drank about 1000 beers at the 19th hole. Most of the time, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ likes to buy stock in companies that no one has heard about, but he loves these companies because they make money quarter after quarter and $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows this trend will continue. Every once in a while, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ buys a stock that everyone has heard of. Of course the company is Apple.

    I bought AAPL two years ago:



    So I guess it’s time to buy it again. On Thursday, I bought AAPL at 586.04. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 675.79. Here’s why I like AAPL:

    Like all $$$MR. MARKET$$$ stocks, it starts with the chart:


    I’ll skip the technical mumbo jumbo but it sure looks like the stock price is consolidating and ready to resume its run. Why will it resume its run?

    Because the company makes money…lots of it.

    Smartphones have consistently been biting off a greater chunk of the overall market, but they still account for only between 30 percent and 40 percent of all phones sold across the world, however iphones hold only around 9 percent of the global mobile phone market. Talk about opportunity for growth! With a PE of only 14, the stock is not expensive at all. Look at the rest of these stats:

    Profit Margin (ttm): 27.13%
    Operating Margin (ttm): 35.69%
    Return on Assets (ttm): 25.84%
    Return on Equity (ttm): 47.10%
    Forward P/E (fye Sep 24, 2013): 10.76
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.57

    AAPL is fun to watch when you don’t own it. Then every now and then it’s time to own it. Each time the stock rockets up, I tell Titan Omega to get out and take his profits. Of course then it just goes shooting up again and he exclaims he is smoking drinkin freeing his mind. Then everyone thinks that Greece and Spain are going to make iphone sales go away, and the stock sells off and Titan Omega is all faceful. But if you see through all of this haze and volatility around us, Apple is an amazing company, one that will continue to excel and dominate the technology sector.

    Check out Apple’s balance sheet: Apple has ZERO debt and a lot of free cash. This means that if they want to invest in some new technology, company, presidential election, or whatever they want, they can do so. AAPL has 28 billion dollars in cash and zero debt. They could make a lot of their employees really wealthy if they wanted to do so. Most likely, the cash can be used in the future to soften the blows of market downturns or recessions. Apple is not beholden to the short term wooing of Wall Street. They don’t have to worry about solvency. They can be patient and continue to make great business decisions.

    Of course they can always use the cash to reward its shareholders with billions of dollars in dividends – looks like they are headed in that direction. Apple has the ability to easily pay an ongoing dividend with a significant yield (2% to 3% range) along with the ability to grow it over time. Defined quarterly dividends would increase the value of the stock in addition to its incredible capital growth. Once they issue a dividend a whole other class of mutual fund and professional managers who have to buy dividend stocks will pile into the stock, providing further upside. They also instituted a $10 billion share-buyback program.

    Another HUGE reason to invest in Apple is their past quarter earnings, and the projected earnings for the next two quarters. Their 2nd quarter earnings of 2012 were $12.30 per share. That beat their 3rd quarter earnings in 2011 by 33%. That’s HUGE. Next quarter, they are expected to beat their Q3 2011 earnings by 33%. The company is growing at a rapid pace and investors still love it. When you think about the size of this company and how rapidly it is growing it truly is mind boggling.

    The future of Apple depends largely on how well they continue to innovate. I have a good feeling that they already have some awesome products designed and in the pipeline. This will get me my 15% gain in no time.

    Investors who also believe that Apple will continue to invent new successful products would see a wonderful investment opportunity at current prices.

    Many ANAL-ysts believe that the shares of Apple have huge potential in the coming few years and this is just the beginning. For once I agree with them. It’s no secret Apple will continue to dominate the field of consumer electronics for at least couple of years. Some small fry may nibble at the corners but I don’t see any companies making any game changing consumables that are going to push aside the Apple products that we’ve all grown to love. Apple will surely do wonders both for its consumers as well as for its investors.

    Here’s some things you might now know:
    *Apple products Sold in 100 countries
    *Retail Stores Bring In more revenue per square foot than any retailer in history
    *Game changing TV launch
    *China Mobile Deal - 1 billion customer base
    *iTunes revenue growth will countinue to grow rapidly
    *Educational systems make switch from text books to tablet

    Steve Jobs may be gone but the design team at Apple lives on. This team is responsible for designing everything from the early iMacs to the latest iPads. We will have soon iPhone 5 (2012), iPhone 5S/6 (2013), iPad 3 (2012), iPad 4 (2013) and the much talked about Apple TV or iTV or whatever (late 2012 or early 2013). That’s right...iTV. It’s a big screen Ipad in your living room that will let you watch whatever you want, whenever you want..for free. Why pay for cable anymore? Apple has always captured the market share with its awesome and amazing products. Apple has to achieve a lot of market share. That’s where the growth will come from.

    Over the past 10 years, Apple's stock has grown from just $12 per share, to $580 -- giving investors who held the stock an incredible return of 4,500%. If you invested $1,000 in Apple in April 2002, you could potentially cash your shares for $48,333 today. By comparison, if 10 years ago you were to spread a $1,000 investment across the 500 largest companies trading in the U.S. stock market -- which would include companies like Wal-Mart, Exxon, GE, AT&T and others -- you'd end up with just $1,250 today. In 2002, if you had purchased Apple stock instead of putting the same amount of money into a house, you'd have almost $10 million right now. For example, the typical American home cost $228,000 in 2002, according to U.S. census data. With that money, you could have bought 18,704 shares of Apple at their price a decade ago of $12.19 a share. Today, that home is worth $280,000 and that Apple holding is worth $9,969,232. Doh. Oh well. You could have bought $$$MR. MARKET$$$ stocks too.

    It’s not too late to own Apple. So what makes Apple so special? How did it grow to become the world's largest and most valuable company? Behind every winning stock is a company with a strong brand image, a lasting competitive advantage, an ever-growing profit and a knack for keeping its shareholders happy for the long haul. The Apple brand has become a household staple with products that can be imitated, but rarely replaced. (Full disclosure, I still use a crackberry, I hate the iPhone touch screen but everybody else seems to love it).

    Apple has sold more iOS devices—iTouch, iPhone, and iPad—in 2011 than the entire number of Macs it sold in its 28 years. In less than 2 years, Apple has sold 55 million iPads. It took Apple 22 years to sell 55 million Macs. At their current rate, they are selling 87,000 iPads a day. Similarly, it took Apple 5 years to sell 22 million iPods but just 3 years to sell 22 million iPhones.

    Business people are using iPads more than any other device. In other words, the corporate world has finally embraced Apple products as corporate tools. The majority of Apple’s revenue comes from products that didn’t exist a little over 2 years ago. Apple products are nowhere close to market saturation levels.

    With all of these great products, we know why AAPL has revenues - but its profit growth comes from the fact that it is a well run company. Apple manages to keep its manufacturing costs low, and always seems to find ways to generate a higher profit for each new product it introduces no matter what the overall economic environment is. They have one of the most efficient and low cost global supply chains, which is why the company enjoys gross margins over 40% across its product lines. Apple's incredible 27% profit margins -- and $33 billion a year profits -- are some of the largest in any industry, so of course investors love this stock. That’s why I love it too.

    Why buy now? Any pullback represents a great buying opportunity if you missed the latest run. So here I am.

    I am HUGE!!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$

    Last edited by mrmarket; 07-05-2012, 09:06 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • billyjoe
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 9014

    #2
    Mr.Market,
    I might sell my AAPL for 675 but then River would say "the heck with 675, I'm lookin' at 800" so I'll just have to keep holding. River is always right.

    -------------billy

    Comment

    • riverbabe
      Senior Member
      • May 2005
      • 3373

      #3
      Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
      Mr.Market,
      I might sell my AAPL for 675 but then River would say "the heck with 675, I'm lookin' at 800" so I'll just have to keep holding. River is always right.

      -------------billy
      Sell at 675. MrM knows when that will be. Then buy it back at 565 and wait for 800 (or not). Sure wish I was always right

      Comment

      • jiesen
        Senior Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 5319

        #4
        I'm in!

        Nice writeup, $$MM! I'm going in with you on AAPL, even tho at 578, it does look a *tad* lofty in price...

        Comment

        • Duniyo
          Senior Member
          • Oct 2010
          • 199

          #5
          AAPL is indeed good company, too bad I brought last year at 425 and then sold when it tanked to 358 .

          I am all cash now the euro crap and election season scare the hell out of me. Mr. Huge you're not scared of the Europe debt problems?

          Comment

          • jiesen
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2003
            • 5319

            #6
            Originally posted by Duniyo View Post
            AAPL is indeed good company, too bad I brought last year at 425 and then sold when it tanked to 358 .

            I am all cash now the euro crap and election season scare the hell out of me. Mr. Huge you're not scared of the Europe debt problems?
            I'm more afraid of US debt problems... aren't you?

            But you can't let fear get in the way of a good investment strategy. If you base your decisions on fear, you're sure to lose bigtime.

            Comment

            • darkpepper
              Junior Member
              • Jun 2012
              • 1

              #7
              Thanks

              Thanks for the detailed breakdown of AAPL! New around here and love it so far.

              Good points about Euro/US market influences - what do you think about the market influence over AAPL individual performance?

              Comment

              • TraderPlayerPerson

                #8
                Good luck mrmarket! I have a feeling this will give you your 15%, but first it will go down 15%.

                Just for consideration, the last time mrmarket bought AAPL, we had the "flash crash" 3 days later. 2 years later it's been up 200% from that low.

                Comment

                • mrmarket
                  Administrator
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5971

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Duniyo View Post
                  AAPL is indeed good company, too bad I brought last year at 425 and then sold when it tanked to 358 .

                  I am all cash now the euro crap and election season scare the hell out of me. Mr. Huge you're not scared of the Europe debt problems?
                  It's causing a temporary ruckus but once the bad stuff gets squeezed out, things will jump back quickly. If a few Spanish banks fail, it won't stop people from buying iPhones.
                  =============================

                  I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                  - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                  Comment

                  • mrmarket
                    Administrator
                    • Sep 2003
                    • 5971

                    #10
                    Originally posted by jiesen View Post
                    I'm more afraid of US debt problems... aren't you?

                    But you can't let fear get in the way of a good investment strategy. If you base your decisions on fear, you're sure to lose bigtime.
                    We already have way too much debt. What's a few more IOU's?
                    =============================

                    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                    Comment

                    • Duniyo
                      Senior Member
                      • Oct 2010
                      • 199

                      #11
                      Originally posted by jiesen View Post
                      I'm more afraid of US debt problems... aren't you?

                      But you can't let fear get in the way of a good investment strategy. If you base your decisions on fear, you're sure to lose bigtime.

                      Yep US debt is out of control but the market is not making big fuss out of it. At least SO far

                      Comment

                      • mrmarket
                        Administrator
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5971

                        #12
                        Well..if you could borrow money at nearly zero percent interest...and people would be lining up to lend it to you...wouldn't you keep borrowing!!???
                        =============================

                        I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                        - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                        Comment

                        • billyjoe
                          Senior Member
                          • Nov 2003
                          • 9014

                          #13
                          ............and they will start paying a quarterly dividend soon that will be about 10.60/yr.

                          ----------billy

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            #14
                            I might sell some AAPL over 600 to get cash for investing that will have a greater return over the next 12 months. Will work out the numbers for another 1 1/2 months to see if it's feasible. It looks promising. Will post returns around August 20th . Have to get minimum of 33% annually or will hold AAPL.


                            -------------billy

                            Comment

                            • Duniyo
                              Senior Member
                              • Oct 2010
                              • 199

                              #15
                              Just purchased AAPL at $590.50 thanks all the ANALyst for apple rumors

                              Comment

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