I can be Huge too

[antioch6]

Well, I decided to keep this thread going. There was really no reason to close it.

I think we are in a stock picker's market, meaning good stocks will go up, and bad stocks will go down. I get these feelings from watching bad stocks in my other thread go up last week, then fall back down this week. The ideal strategy here is selling one company and buying another.

At the moment we are in two different markets, with weak companies losing in August and strong companies moving sideways. These weak companies are at support, so they could crash here but they could also hold and have large gains from short-covering or just risky buyers. On the stronger side, good companies might see large gains as risky buyers enter. So with weak companies at support and strong companies going flat, the momentum is down. The contrary point is these risky buyers usually start buying when prices are down, like we saw last week. The regional banks were starting to fall on low volume, then buyers came in and squeezed the stocks higher for a week. They did the same in housing stocks. So as they move around every couple weeks, they have a chance to hit an actual strong, risky company. These are the companies I want to buy now, as they're flat.

On the other side, I want to trade the weak companies as they fall below support. I want the companies I know are bad and will go much lower to eventual bankruptcy months and years into the future.

Instead of screens for the week, i'm moving to active screens for the day. Here is the screen for the day:

It looks like I only got one stock for today and it was a uranium stock. I looked more into it and I found Uranium and Nuclear ETFs are developing momentum. These might be the risky buyers looking for something hot. The charts look just like the Japanese hedged etf. I looked into the top holdings, and I feel it is a good representation of Japan as a whole. I included the 3 etfs in the screen. URA NLR DXJ

Here is the sell screen for the day:

BIG AAP BYND FL DG TREE

So most of these sells are at support and so far they're holding. My emotions are telling me the buyers will save these weak stocks for the short term, and they will buy these uranium and japan areas with momentum. I feel greedy wanting to buy the screen, and I also feel scared enough to not do anything. With these ideas in mind, I think I'll play the momentum and if support breaks and momentum ends, I'll switch to sell. I did this back in January and the momentum died back then. Somehow, nuclear energy and japan value stocks sound more exciting than u.s. homebuilders. I guess you need real excitement and something new to create momentum.

[jiesen]

URA is a good one, and I've been holding this for a while now, for exposure to Uranium if and when it explodes like a bomb!

[antioch6]

i'm looking for the perfect short. I think I know what's happening.

i tried selling BYND but the charge to borrow was 25%+. I kept down the list and I'm selling TREE at 17.38. My thinking is people might not be able to pay off their loans, and this would force TREE to take huge losses. They are already losing money and have 40% of their value in debt. Their price is breaking below 17.60 lows from December and May. I'm waiting for risk buyers to enter and start buying s&p, nasdaq, and stuff like BYND or TREE. Besides that, I expect prices to continue steadily falling.

[antioch6]

I'm looking for a solid buy to balance out my risk. Everything I've found is not incredibly strong, but instead more short term = oriented and risky. I'll keep looking; hopefully I'll find one before the end of the day.

[antioch6]

I closed my TREE sell and opened buy PATH. This stock caught my attention on the front page of news today, and I've heard Cathie Wood talking about it. It seems like a cool stock that can make money and be higher higher in a year from now. I know louetta liked the momentum in the market last week and the stability after Federal Reserve day. I would take it one step further, and say the market has been strong from October to January, and we've been sideways since. Now the Fed is almost done with rate increases, and it looks like we might have a recession. Well, to me the long term is clear - we are going higher. My friend with the $3 million dollars is scared of a recession, but he says it's hard to time it. I have to say it is almost impossible to convince him to buy stock. Stocks are already down big from August, and most stocks are still near their October - November prices. I don't think the market is high (too high); just because a.i.and technology are higher doesn't mean the market will crash on something that isn't here yet. And by now everyone knows the government is going to send more money when the recession starts, so why sell before a recession, unless you are only trying to take advantage of other people?

My plan is to trade half of PATH and keep the other half as a long term investment. If we start breaking below lows and panic selling begins, I'll sell half.

[Louetta]

...... big snip ......

My plan is to trade half of PATH and keep the other half as a long term investment. If we start breaking below lows and panic selling begins, I'll sell half.

I have some LEAPS (calls, Jan. 2025) in PATH. Might roll them further out when the new series come out on (I think it's) the 12th. 11th, actually, a Monday of course.

[antioch6]

I just sold PATH because the valuation was too high. I watched their earnings webcast and even with 20% growth rate, they're only expected to make $135 million dollars this year. That gives them a p/e of 61. The story is good, the growth is good, but the p/e is too high.

This makes me sad because i wanted to hold something. The market is really tough; there are no names on my screen. There are some sell names, and my favorite is MNRO. TREE is also falling. When this momentum from the market fades, I'll plan to sell these.

[antioch6]

I was thinking the sells were very low and near support, and the buys are all high and near resistance. The likely scenario for me is down across all sells and buys, because there are not many buyers. Expensive stocks with momentum should drop back down as the price returns to where it4 was before the momentum buying started. With this in mind, I looked for the highest stocks with the most one to three day momentum, thinking it will reverse in the next 1-3 days. I just exited PATH, so if it's worth selling it must be worth selling for a profit. I was scared of the high p/e together with the weak momentum after a 10% up day. PATH should of been up 5% today. Instead it was flat, and later I saw small investors buy the price up 1% for the same reasons I bought it yesterday. They are following the momentum in earnings and price, but they don't know about the value yet. So if something is high priced, less people will buy it, and the momentum will end. I think this is happening in PATH now, and i'm selling while expecting the 10% gain yesterday to reverse as no new buyers arrive.

If PATH is dangerous to buy, and there is a small chance of large gains, then it must be safe to sell, with a average possibility of large losses.

[Louetta]

...snip...

If PATH is dangerous to buy, and there is a small chance of large gains, then it must be safe to sell, with a average possibility of large losses.

I chose for similar reasons to go with the long-term calls. My loss is limited to what I invested in buying the call. If the stock falls in the near-term the option does not fair too badly (tho it does go down) because there is so much time left. If the stock does well before 1/2025 there is the possibility of a decent gain in the option and I won't miss out because I will always be in the stock via the option. Monday I can roll it out to 1/2026 if the premium is not too much (and it might very well be).

[antioch6]

I've been watching PATH all day, and now I decided to sell more as the momentum is over. This was up almost 5% today, but now it's back to 3.65% where I'll take my chances and add a stop 1-3% above the highs.

[antioch6]

I was watching PATH all day again, and today I noticed it held up better than I expected. It was down 6% in the morning and I was placing my order for closing, but I was too slow and it's been -2% to -3% for the day. I'm looking for one final sell before the end of the day, and I'm placing my limit buy order now.

[antioch6]

I started my selling at 18.27, I continued at 19.17, and I finished buying at 18.68. So I lost +2.25% on the first half and gained -2.55% on the second half. It feels good taking a small win on a trade I was wrong on mostly. If i would of taken that large gain on the trade in the morning, I would of had to speed up, and traded more on emotion and luck; now it makes more sense that the company hasn't changed much in value, and I am getting out around even.

I think the momentum is sideways and I still think Path is high, but risky buyers are buying slowly, and the market is not falling. They could send the market higher, but on the other side, investors who have companies bought from 2008-2015 and before, might sell to these risky buyers as we enter the first recession in 15 years. I'll be trading one day at a time, enjoying the strongest and weakest companies, and having fun.

[antioch6]

I'm watching NFLX as a possible sell; it's gone up 200% off the lows and is losing momentum. The p/e is 45, and the earnings are flat. It might take a while before it goes down; my mom told me we're already in a recession, and she can see it start to get bad definitely by next March. What does a bad recession look like? Maybe people out of money, less spending around overall, less purchases of expensive items like houses and cars, companies spending less on expanding.

The next topic that comes to my mind is what companies will suffer the most from this spending. I'm sure I'll find one, but it might not be time to sell yet. If the recession will get bad in March or sooner, that gives us 3-4 months to prepare and sell our stocks or sell short. In the meantime, we can monitor the market momentum day by day, figure out who will be the last to buy, and pick which areas will suffer most.

[antioch6]

As I look into possible stocks to sell, I see more and more stocks precisely at their lows, just like BlueWolf said, on the precipice. The only downsides here are the possibility risky buyers will enter at support, and the outlook that in a year or a year and a half, everything might be fine again as governments stimulate the economy again and start the cycle over. Before this happens, we need to see buying, and we need to see a stimulus. In the meantime, the current momentum is favoring the up side, but there might not be any reason to go significantly higher - the government won't stimulate until the people are suffering. The interesting point to watch might be what the risky buyers might react when they hear news of a bad recession but see prices going higher. Will they get greedy enough to buy as we see our first recession and support prices in the S&p 500 and Nasdaq 100 that are already high, trading around 20 times earnings.

It's easy to buy into the story long term; the S&p will always go up, the government will always bail out companies and support higher stock prices. That's been true, and we are currently favored to higher prices in the S&p, Nasdaq, and Dow. My profit greed is telling me there is large potential on the downside. Most stocks are going lower; any index that isn't concentrated, more representative of the whole U.S. market is going lower currently. This tells me people are buying the major indexes, supporting brand names that represent the U.S. market most in Name. I mean companies that most people think of when they think of the U.S. market all around the world.

The next step is to consider these global traders are buying the U.S. market because it has brand appeal, and they don't care too much about the price. The only thing left that can happen are risky traders, or hot money, can enter and send prices even higher than they are now. The question is - will these traders be able to hold when the recession arrives and prices are decreasing? Someone is sure to sell, and others are sure to start buying at the first signs that the government will stimulate.

The problem is finding someone to buy from and finding someone to sell to. Everyone agrees prices are high, so probably they will fall back down to where they are not high, or to where they are low. in theory, the market should trade at a fair price, where it's not too high and not too low. The explanation for it's current high price, is there are many traders willing to wait years for returns, and willing to accept smaller returns, just to be in; just to participate. There is a large supply of buyers, and so far there is a small supply of sellers; the momentum is currently higher according to my market timing services, but to me I see a sideways market that could go decisively 1% strongly in either direction before I could comfortably gauge if there is something worth getting excited about, or if there is something trash enough to sell for money.

Apart from anything of the like, we should reach for a constant, steady income. Government has concluded that an income of $72,000 a year is enough to sustain a family of 3 happy. My personal studies result in an $81,000 a year number. So this should be our effort for everything money-related including the stock market. I would use interest rates as the guide for our percentage return-line of thinking. Currently, I would expect 5% from a safe bond, or maybe even 4% if it's 10,20,30 years expiration. The amount of work you have to do is tied to the amount of money you have now. If you have $2.025 million, you can buy a U.S. bond and live happily with a family of 3 for thirty years. You might want to work so you have money incase interest rates decrease. If you only have $100,000 you'll have to work more because you can only make $4,000 a year from investing. The worst case scenario is living alone and in the poverty line at under $14,580 per year. This should place you under support from the government, and in need of $12,480 per year to live happily. This is $238.85 a week. If you work you'll need to make about $57.32 a day. For me this is hard work, but I can try to manage $238.85 a week with my resources. It's useful to have your dollar needs written down so you know what level of risk to take. I hope everyone makes it happily to 2025!

[antioch6]

I sold EL because there were no good stocks to buy, and it looked like the most consistent, weakest company to sell. U.S. stocks are higher today, around +1%, but it's more a general 1% higher, after several weeks of going lower. It's not enough for momentum, so overall I think the next move will be -1% lower.