I can be Huge too

[antioch6]

I think today there was short covering and some momentum buying - people buying because the market is at support or going sideways. I'm selling EL and down -0.46%, but that is acceptable; EL was up +1.21% while the market was up a minimum of +1.00% on the lower end, and a minimum of +1.60% on the higher end. I think this is expected in a sideways market as the weaker stocks gain on oversold lines of thinking and the stronger stocks go sideways; there was one stock that's started to go higher but it is a truck parts company so it's cyclical and doesn't have much to stand out - PCAR. From what I've seen and heard the top stocks are falling a few at a time and the overall trend is still negative for most companies. The S&p 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still in buying range as they hold their gains from August lows; any move lower could end this buying range and create a selling range. If you believe in buying strength and selling weakness, now is the time to buy. If you believe in fundamental strategies, and missing out on some gains while increasing your percentages, now is the time to wait. Finally, if you believe stocks track the overall economy, you're trades will depend if you think there will be a recession in 6 months or if growth will continue. i have to give the chances to fears of recession coming back, because they were there last year, and now they are gone. The only risk here is if traders temporarily send prices higher on emotion and momentum. My strategy is selling now with a 1-3% stop loss, and re-entering again after gains are made and momentum is lost.

[antioch6]

So I just woke up and I found EL is up +1.7%. I said the market might be down -1% but I expected EL to be down -3%. The opposite is happeneing, probably because of short covering. I'll give it +2.5% more to prove me wrong, but I already feel wrong on this one.

[antioch6]

I looked at the intra-day chart of EL and I noticed there is very light trading; someone is buying at market and sending the price higher . I think someone is even trying to squeeze me; the volume is very light and I expect the price to reverse lower. I feel comfortable about holding this sell and only a wild short squeeze will push me out.

[antioch6]

EL was upgraded from sell to neutral by an analyst, so I'm feeling kind of depressed because everything is down except EL. I'm watching it stay +2.5% to +3% higher and now I know I'm in for a longer wait; sort of what Jiesen felt when he saw PLPC going lower after raising his hopes. But like Jiesen I know the market will go on, continue on, and I still think EL is going lower so I'm starting over and monitoring the momentum.

[antioch6]

Today the market is not as bad as it looks; if yesterday was not a good gain day, today was not a good loss day. The S&p and Nasdaq look worse because they have high p/e ratios, but overall between yesterday and today there is nothing gained or lost. The selling is not enough to trigger momentum as you can tell from EL which is still up +1.53% for today. The momentum that started in June is over, and now we are heading back to May levels. As selling gains momentum, only the news and value will guide us.

[antioch6]

I'm thinking about when to exit EL, and I couldn't think of anything else happening in one day. The market is near support, and you can't get more than a -2.5% down day without some extra news. I would of expected EL to be down much more already, so now would of been the time to get out while the price is dropping.

[antioch6]

I haven't posted in a while because I thought the market would drop. It dropped in Sept and Oct, but the Federal bank seems determined to save the stock market. So all the losses came back and we are at resistance again with momentum turning negative.

Everything seems the same as last year as we are waiting for a recession and the market momentum is sideways. The only thing I've heard that can save us from a recession is more quantitative easing, and stimulus from the government. P/e ratios are high and earnings are coming in badly. I wrote about the same thing last August but it all depends on if the recession comes or not. People buying now can see a stimulus on the horizon and they can't wait.

Rates are probably going to go lower but it is based on the wrong reasons. I've understood it as rates will go lower because there is no growth or return from growth. This reflects a weak economy and doesn't include the possibility that there could be another cycle of defaults on debt from what I have heard are tight credit standards from banks.

So rates will go lower but that won't stimulate the expansion of credit because banks won't create the loans. This just means we are at the same place we were in the stock market as October 2022; only now we are 40%-70% higher in prices. So as far as stocks go, I think 50%-100% is as far as you can go without things changing. We should also include the possibility we could always go back to the lows in 2022.

There aren't many good ideas in the market right now; short selling looks more rewarding but I personally think we need to hedge our sells with buys incase the market goes up another 10%-30% percent. I'll be reviving my Top Buys and Sells thread to continue the spread; which has shown gains on all timeframes since I started posting the best picks for consistent returns.

[antioch6]

I haven't made a dump in a while. So I decided to try a new dump from Marketsmith. First I'll lay out the criteria for the screen.

I first populate a screen with stocks that have a p/e ratio, that have earnings and sales data, and that have price data.

Next I divide the stocks into three groups. Seemingly these are bad, normal, and good. I take the bad stocks out according to the highest p/e ratio, the lowest earnings and sales growth, and the weakest price data. I also remove the group with lowest volume.

Next I use my noodle and organize the companies by their industry group. I think what areas would be good over time and which companies do I like. I'll include all the good ones I like here.

Here is this week's dump:

COKE KOF LDOS EA FI FLT

[antioch6]

I'm getting the feeling thing are getting closer to a recession because of the price movements today. Bonds are up, and stocks are gaining some momentum down. Even bitcoin is getting some selling today after increasing 50% and back to old highs. The Floorplan looks like people buying safe finances and selling the hottest products. I still think we are gunna get a recession so maybe this is the first signal; although I was thinking similar things in January, now they look more obvious.

[jiesen]

I'm getting the feeling thing are getting closer to a recession because of the price movements today. Bonds are up, and stocks are gaining some momentum down. Even bitcoin is getting some selling today after increasing 50% and back to old highs. The Floorplan looks like people buying safe finances and selling the hottest products. I still think we are gunna get a recession so maybe this is the first signal; although I was thinking similar things in January, now they look more obvious.

You may be right. I do see plenty of signs that finances are beginning to crumble in all sorts of places now. Lots of debt out there with no way to pay it back, and too many places going belly up.

[antioch6]

I took a long drive and was determined to find out what people are spending their money on. It's been a year since I heard about this, but now I think it's really about to take off. Temu.com is an online shopping website that people are starting to use. I first bought a laundry hamper off them because it was the only place I could find a pink laundry hamper.

The earnings are going higher in this stock, the p/e is reasonable, and the price is going higher. I was unsure about buying this at $80 last year, but now I am confident buying this just below $160 this year. The important points to maintain here are PDD is going to gain more shoppers in the years to come. That's the main important note. Also the stock is clean with no debt, a p/e of 20, earnings up exponential in the last two years, and large growth in the last two quarters. The price is up 100% over the last year, like I said, so there is nothing stopping this that can be seen. The only variable is the continued growth in shoppers that is coming as their item selection expands, and they include more quality items.

The stick symbol is PDD and I just bought for the next two years.

[antioch6]

My money is tied up in PDD and I've been getting desperate to trade. Last week I sold my car and now I am trading futures with the cash. I plan to trade S&P and Gold futures long only.

[antioch6]

I traded wheat today and lost $1,000. I am using a short term momentum strategy. The hard part about daytrading is it seams like someone is out to hit your stops when you set them, whether you buy or sell. I'm trading the s&p 500, gold, oil, the u.s. dollar, and wheat. I have $24,806.21 left; I'm comfortable as long as the account stays above $20,000; I don't have a set profit goal.

[antioch6]

I was interrupted and harassed by some social workers while I was trading. They made me feel highly disturbed. I tried to hold my trading strategy together but I got emotional and bet everything on gold for the sake of being stupid. I bought at the highs and finally profit cut my losses at an account value of $8,166.21. I thought about it all afternoon and now I'm happy this happened. I can set my profit target at $100,000 now and I discovered a systematic loss cut number that I was approximately using already. My goal is to take this account up in two years without adding any additional money.

[antioch6]

I started trading the s&p futures but after making $100, there seemd to be a wall blocking my profits I kept trading but everytime I go in, the market moves against me, almost to the decimal place. I buy at the highs, and the market goes down. Finally I sold one contract and gave up, which was followed by a 60 point plunge, equal to 3,000 per contract. I knew I had to wait for everything to start over if I wanted to make any money. I cant just sit around and wait for nothing, for anything; I decided to try one last time or I would not be a trader anymore. I bet everything that the s&p would fall since there was no buying, and it was not strong. I used everything I had learned in the past 16 years and I knew the market should fall or go sideways from that point if technical analysis had any worth. I set my stop to a level that should be reached if I'm wrong, and I thought: If this market goes against me this time, there is no way possible to make money trading. My failure was because of the order size in the market que. Once you buy, everyone can see that you are the last person to try to trade. Immediately the price moves against you, and whatever strategy you had is a failure because they will force you to your stop over until you go all in. Even the larger traders and institutions are in on it because as soon after I set my stop, I see the orders move the opposite direction from where I want; The price stops when a psychological level is hit, but orders in the 7.5 millions move in lock step with orders of 150,000 to move the price while there is no clear way the market is going. My account went from $8,166.21 down to $1,476.53.

I didn't make my goal to reach $100.000 with my account, but now I gained something better, the knowledge that trading is impossible unless you want to sit idle and waste time. So I walked to the bank and deposited some money so I would purchase a stock screener. I have a new desire. My mom gives me $300 every week and I want to continue trading. With the new software I found 15 stocks that meet the buy criteria. This means the market is strong and there are plenty of opportunities to invest in. Here's to surviving in the market for a lifetime!