GSVC/Twitter/Facebook

[mimo_100]

Good morning all.

I was checking out this GSVC spreadsheet as well as the price action of GSVC up to the Facebook IPO and now wondering if I should sell part of my GSVC position today as a profitable hedge against what may happen tomorrow.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnRtDtgwjPS6dHU4THhvbTIxTFk2cnZMYkVRdkVSWWc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=2

Thoughts?

Hello tiedyed,

I was going over your spreadsheet - I am not sure what MF means - FV is future value correct?

The problem with buying GSVC at this price is that it is selling at a huge premium to net asset value - rule #1 when buying closed end funds is to buy them at a discount.

Once you tell me what MF is, I can give you my opinion.

Tim

[billyjoe]

Waiting on phone call whether or not I get any Twitter, my guess is 100 shares if any.

----------------billy

[tiedyed1]

Hello tiedyed,

I was going over your spreadsheet - I am not sure what MF means - FV is future value correct?

The problem with buying GSVC at this price is that it is selling at a huge premium to net asset value - rule #1 when buying closed end funds is to buy them at a discount.

Once you tell me what MF is, I can give you my opinion.

Tim

Hi Tim. It is not my spreadsheet, but I was translating MF to mean Moving Forward Fair Value, as the $24 figure is highlighted and corresponds to a note referring to an IPO price.
But I am honestly guessing.
???

-Adam

[billyjoe]

Latest reports say 27

------billy

[billyjoe]

GSVC up 2.66% in pre-market. They announce earnings at 5PM today.Twitter IPO results will have big effect on their guidance. Looks as if my call to buy TWTR isn't coming from broker.

---------------------billy

[billyjoe]

TWTR 30X oversubscribed could bode very well for GSVC. Only 20% or 14 million TWTR shares available to retail (non institutional).

--------------------billy

[tiedyed1]

GSVC up 2.66% in pre-market. They announce earnings at 5PM today.Twitter IPO results will have big effect on their guidance. Looks as if my call to buy TWTR isn't coming from broker.

---------------------billy

I am no longer feeling warm and fuzzy on this one:

WOODSIDE, Calif., Nov. 7, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GSV Capital Corp. ("GSV") (GSVC), today announced that it has rescheduled its report of earnings for the third quarter ended September 30, 2013, from Thursday, November 7, 2013 to after the close of the U.S. market on Monday, November 11, 2013.

[riverbabe]

I am no longer feeling warm and fuzzy on this one:

WOODSIDE, Calif., Nov. 7, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GSV Capital Corp. ("GSV") (GSVC), today announced that it has rescheduled its report of earnings for the third quarter ended September 30, 2013, from Thursday, November 7, 2013 to after the close of the U.S. market on Monday, November 11, 2013.

Maybe they just need to reevaluate their TWTR holdings.

[mimo_100]

I think that GSVC is/was overvalued (in post #16 I wrote "The total cost of all securities at that time was $245,295,528. They have 20.3 million shares outstanding, so the NAV is $12.08. So at $15.70 per share, the shares are trading at about
a 30% premium over NAV."

The market is revaluing the shares at a more reasonable price. It just fell thru its 50 day MA and is headed towards its 100 day MA at 12.88 today. Price as I write this is 14.04.

[billyjoe]

Not a good day for the billy financial empire. Looked at my portfolio. Haven't seen that much red since I caught my hand in the chipper/shredder. I prefer River's optimistic outlook. GSVC is just evaluating their incredible profits from the IPO and will announce the results Monday.

------------------billy

[Louetta]

Methinks River's right. Today's twitter action materially affects the GSVC NAV. Can they really put out an earnings report at 4:30 today and account in guidance for what's happened? Also, November $15 calls (on GSVC) are trading at 45 cents. That means some people think the stock will trade above $15.45 in the next nine days.

[tiedyed1]

I agree that the scheduling of the earnings call was ill timed, but why wait until today to reschedule it? That is what bothers me.

Watching the share price fluctuations over the past couple of weeks and current action it has also been an interesting lesson for me too.
I like the idea of having the ability to invest in a VC, but also need to do more backtracking and evaluate the fees these guys are grabbing too, which will affect the EPS of the common stock.

Hanging in there and toasting my cup to you all
-Adam

[Louetta]

Here's what I don't understand. I've read GSVC's shares in twitter cost about $18. After today's trading they are worth about $47, over 2.5 times what they were worth.

I've seen pie charts saying GSVC's twitter stake WAS about 15% of GSVC net asset value, or $15 per $100. Now they are worth over 2.5 times that much or about $38 per 100, an increase of $23 per $100.

Does this not mean the net asset value is up 23% or so? I've seen values for NAV in the 12's. If it was 12.5 then a 20% increase makes it $15. It could trade at a discount but the current price seems low and I would put it down to people expecting bad news which is usually what a postponed earnings report means.

[antioch6]

Word on stocktwits pinned it to buy the run-up sell on the news.

[mimo_100]

The 3rd quarter GSV financials are for the accounting period ending September 30, 2013. This is PRIOR to the TWTR IPO. The only thing they will change is the forward looking statement which will include the IPO IMO.