HCI ==> The Waterbury Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    HCI ==> The Waterbury Winner

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

    So you drive to fast and you smash your car. No problem, your insurance company fixes it. Then you text when you drive and you smash into the guy in front of you. No problem, your insurance company fixes it. Then you get your new insurance bill and your premiums have gone up. Errrrr. Then your insurance agent calls you and says you no longer can renew your policy with them. Then you have to get insurance with Progressive and you pay a bazillion dollars for insurance and you start driving an old car so you can afford the insurance payment.

    What’s the point here? The point is that the insurance companies always win. They raise your premiums to cover your losses. Now think about this. What if the insurance company jacks up your premiums and they don’t have to pay out any losses? They not only make money. They make a TON of money.
    Now let’s go down to Florida. Here is a list of the most recent major hurricanes to hit Florida:

    Charley 4 August 13 2004 130 Cayo Costa
    Punta Gorda
    Frances 2 September 5 2004 105 Sewall's Point, Florida
    Ivan 3 September 16 2004 105 Gulf Shores, Alabama
    Jeanne 3 September 26 2004 105 Hutchinson Island
    Dennis 3 July 10 2005 105 Santa Rosa Island
    Katrina 3 August 23 2005 105 Hallandale/Miramar FL
    Wilma 3 October 24 2005 105 Cape Romano
    What do you notice about this list? There were 7 major hurricanes from 2004/2005. After that, insurance companies in Florida raised their premiums like nobody’s business if you wanted to own a home there. The people gladly paid because they were all faceful and nervous that their houses would get all destroyed without insurance. Now guess what…there hasn’t been a hurricane there in 8 years. Now I don’t want to jinx anyone, but the Florida insurance companies have paid out squat in claims and they are raking in the premiums..CAN’T LOSE! CAN’T LOSE!!!

    Today I bought stock in HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) at 41.73. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 48.18. Here’s why I like HCI:



    Yes that is right. This stock is up 77% over the last 52 weeks. What’s even better is that it’s PE is only 9. What’s even better is that it pays a 2.9% dividend. You’re making money all kinds of ways when you own this stock. I love this stock.

    Today, HCI Group announced that its board has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend in the amount of 27.5c per common share for Q4, which represents a 22.2% increase over the previous quarterly rate of 22.5c per share. The dividend will be paid Dec. 20 to shareholders of record on the close of business Nov. 15. I love this board!

    HCI Group, Inc. provides property and casualty insurance products in Florida. It operates through Insurance Operations and Other Operations segments. The company offers property and casualty insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants. It also leases office or retail space; and owns and operates one full-service restaurant and two marinas. In addition, the company offers Exzeo, a Web-based application that enables integration between organizations, co-workers, and business partners. Its Exzeo enables users to manage projects through communication and collaboration with other participants in a real-time work environment.

    Now I don’t get the thing about the full service restaurant and the two marinas, but I think that’s because the guy that runs this company likes to park his boats there and have a drink or three at his restaurant.

    What’s important here is that it’s already October and there are zero hurricanes in 2013. That means that there will be no property damage to worry about until at least next June. Meanwhile, they will be cashing their insurance premiums checks like a slot machine. Ka Ching Ka Ching Ka Ching!!!

    HCI Group has recorded strong revenue and EPS growth, during the last year, the last three years and the last five years. Why? No hurricanes in 8 years.


    On August 01, HCI Group reported its second-quarter financial results, which beat EPS expectations by $0.18. The company reported income available to common stockholders in the second quarter of 2013 totaled $16.2 million or $1.40 diluted earnings per common share, an improvement from $7.2 million or $0.74 diluted earnings per common share in the second quarter of 2012. Gross premiums earned in the second quarter of 2013 increased 52.4% to $82.0 million from $53.8 million in the same period in 2012.

    HCI has recorded very strong revenue and EPS growth. The company is rich in cash ($26 a share) and has a low debt . That’s why they can boost their dividend payment. It’s easy. The suckers in Florida pay high insurance premiums, and we get their cash. It’s a shakedown. They are renewing their policies at a 90% rate. They love HCI. They love to give me money.

    If you’re worried about the storm finally coming, I’m not. First of all, they won’t get one til June 2014 at the earliest, and I’ll be out of this stock by then for sure. Second, they can buy reinsurance for a lot cheaper than people are paying them premiums, so they are kind of hedged just in case. Homeowners Choice’s reinsurance program transfers catastrophic risk to 27 highly-rated or fully collateralized reinsurance partners. These guys were underreinsured for the last couple of years, so they gambled and won. Now they are playing with house monies and they are hedged.

    It’s like having a 16 and drawing a 5, even if the dealer has a 10 showing. You have drinking machine…can’t lose. CAN’T LOSE!! They have 23 consecutive quarters of profitability and 12 consecutive quarters of shareholder dividends.

    HCI’s highly-selective underwriting process determines the best properties to insure. They have proprietary algorithms analyze 48 data points to determine if a
    particular policy meets their rigorous standards.

    Between 2002-2010, four large national insurance companies (representing 75% of the market) exited the state of Florida. These cowards left the door wide open for HCI. HCI is now the #4 ranked insurer in the state of Florida, with a 3% market share. Their goal is to have 5%. That’s where the growth is going to come from.

    These guys are also leveraging their knowledge base into the real estate business. Greenleaf Capital, an HCI division, holds and manages our real estate investment portfolio currently comprised of…
    · Two Class A office buildings with more than
    · 130,000 square feet of space
    · 19 acres of waterfront property in Tierra
    · Verde & Treasure Island on Florida’s Gulf coast

    Plans to grow Greenleaf’s holdings to more than $100M. Investment philosophy seeks capital appreciation through opportunistic transactions.
    They are reinvesting these premiums wisely and should benefit from the rising interest rate environment.

    I know I will benefit from the tepid weather environment. The only Hurricanes in Florida play for the University of Miami!

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$

    www.mrmarketishuge.com

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by mrmarket; 11-03-2013, 11:24 AM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • mimo_100
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 1784

    #2
    The winners are coming so fast, it is hard to figure out where to re-invest. You are HUGE. I like this one too.
    Tim - Retired Problem Solver

    Comment

    • jiesen
      Senior Member
      • Sep 2003
      • 5319

      #3
      Great pick, $$MM!! I'm in on this one at 44.5. Blinked, and missed out yesterday, doh!

      Comment

      • tiedyed1
        Senior Member
        • Jun 2009
        • 599

        #4
        With great numbers from Travelers, insurers, including HCI, on a tear today.
        I wish I bought more last week but very happy I am in, thanks to Mr. Market's HUGENESS.
        Keep On Keepin' HUGE!

        Comment

        • mrmarket
          Administrator
          • Sep 2003
          • 5971

          #5
          Originally posted by tiedyed1 View Post
          With great numbers from Travelers, insurers, including HCI, on a tear today.
          I wish I bought more last week but very happy I am in, thanks to Mr. Market's HUGENESS.
          Keep On Keepin' HUGE!
          It's easy. There ain't no hurricanes.
          =============================

          I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

          - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

          Comment

          • Skrumpa
            Member
            • Apr 2011
            • 78

            #6
            It's green on a red day and that's huge as well

            Comment

            • Duniyo
              Senior Member
              • Oct 2010
              • 199

              #7
              Seems you forgot to add HCI to your list of stock holdings.

              Comment

              • mrmarket
                Administrator
                • Sep 2003
                • 5971

                #8
                Too busy watching the Red Sox..thx
                =============================

                I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                Comment


                • #9
                  It's looking good

                  Comment

                  • mrmarket
                    Administrator
                    • Sep 2003
                    • 5971

                    #10
                    YOU SEEEES??!!!


                    "Now, I will turn the call over to Paresh Patel, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Paresh?

                    Paresh Patel
                    Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon everyone. As Richard will expand on shortly, we are excited to report our outstanding results for the three and nine months ended September30, 2013. Besides our financial results among the highlights of the quarter were another quiet hurricane season with the first hurricane not actually forming until September 10. Obviously, acquired a quarter than the corresponding quarter last year.
                    Secondly, the approval we received in August, 2013 to assume additional policies from Citizens. As of today, we continue this assumption of over 34,000 of those policies. Three, we continue to re-brand the company to HCI Group which helps avoid confusion our parent company, our insurance subsidiary and our other enterprises. And finally, we were named 13th on the Fortune’s List of 100 fastest growing public companies based on average revenue growth, profit growth and relative stock performance over the past three years.
                    Now I would like to turn the call over to our CFO Richard Allen to walk through our financial performance for the quarter, for the third quarter. Richard?"
                    =============================

                    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                    Comment

                    • Mi6op
                      Member
                      • Oct 2003
                      • 87

                      #11
                      Why the huge sell off after the good results and big initial pop from their results?

                      Comment

                      • jiesen
                        Senior Member
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5319

                        #12
                        Originally posted by jiesen View Post
                        Great pick, $$MM!! I'm in on this one at 44.5. Blinked, and missed out yesterday, doh!
                        Well, I checked the weather report, and still no hurricanes in sight (in our half of the world at least). And with good earnings news out, then if HCI was good at 44.5, it's even better at 42... so I picked up some more today.

                        Comment

                        • tiedyed1
                          Senior Member
                          • Jun 2009
                          • 599

                          #13
                          drum roll please......

                          4 weeks later and HCI is up >15%.
                          (plus get your .275 dividend for shares w/ record date of 11/15, payable 12/20... the stock pick that keeps on giving )

                          Meats, cheeses, fine wine and high fives to Mr. Market.

                          HUGE, HUGE, HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!

                          Comment

                          • jiesen
                            Senior Member
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 5319

                            #14
                            HCI hits 48 again!

                            Originally posted by jiesen View Post
                            Well, I checked the weather report, and still no hurricanes in sight (in our half of the world at least). And with good earnings news out, then if HCI was good at 44.5, it's even better at 42... so I picked up some more today.
                            Sold half my HCI today at $48 for a 15% gain on those shares, and will hold onto the rest until $50 or so because I'm being greedy. Should get there soon, methinks...

                            Thanks again for this awesome pick, $$MM!! You are HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGEEEE!!!!

                            Comment

                            • billyjoe
                              Senior Member
                              • Nov 2003
                              • 9014

                              #15
                              jiesen, Agreed, HCI will get to 55 or more in my opinion, unless the market tanks.

                              ----------------------billy

                              Comment

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