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Some people like Manhattan for its magnificent skyline:
Others love the Manhattan culture:
$$$MR. MARKET$$$ says you can have it. I hated the Manhattan commute. And in the summer the place always smelled like pee.
There is one good thing about Manhattan. That’s where the stock market is and that’s where $$$MR. MARKET$$$ makes all of his money.
Today I bought stock in Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH) at 37.18 I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 42.85. Here’s why I like MANH
My God..look at the chart. The chart says it all. It’s a thing of beauty. It’s a work of art that should be hung in the Guggenheim. Its trend is such a straight line that it can’t deviate. A momentum stock lover’s DREAM!
This stock is up 110% over the last 52 weeks. That’s really great. It’s PE, however, is kind of high – 44. That’s not so great. But I love the chart. I freakin LOVE THE CHART.
Manhattan Associates, Inc. develops, sells, deploys, services, and maintains supply chain commerce software solutions for retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, governments, and other organizations to enhance their supply chain operations from planning through execution. The company operates in three segments: the Americas; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Its platform-based supply chain software solution portfolio includes Manhattan SCOPE and Manhattan SCALE. The company’s Manhattan SCOPE provides supply chain solution suites that include inventory optimization, transportation lifecycle management, and distribution management; and commerce chain solution suites comprising order lifecycle management, store inventory and fulfillment, and planning, as well as supply chain process platforms. Its Manhattan SCALE provides a portfolio of logistics execution solutions that offer trading partner management, yard management, optimization, warehouse management, and transportation execution services. The company also offers professional services, including solutions planning and implementation, and related consulting services; customer training and support services; and software enhancements. In addition, it sells computer hardware, radio frequency terminal networks, radio frequency identification chip readers, bar code printers and scanners, and other peripherals. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
If you just crawled out from under a rock and don’t know what supply chain is, well wake up. Supply Chain is an integral part of almost every company these days. Supply chain management is essentially coordinating the flow of products from suppliers to customers. In fact, universities are offering it as major. They used to exist for the purposes of making stuff as fast as you could. Companies had employees called “expediters” who would yell at other employees and suppliers and then go home and drink a 6 pack of Miller High Life. Now customers and their smart phones want to know everything about what they just ordered. So your supply chain had to get a lot more sophisticated and transparent. Manhattan Associates figured out that their supply chains should deliver the kind of personalized experiences that lock in loyalty and grow revenue— simply put, transforming your supply chain from just a money-saver to also be a money-maker.
Manhattan Associates' supply chain solutions for the food and beverage industry enable food and beverage manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers and retailers to respond quickly to changing demands, comply with burgeoning regulations and improve service levels. At the same time, you can enhance profits by reducing transportation costs and speeding deliveries.
Manhattan’s CEO recently said, “In today's retail supply chains, you need to be commerce-ready. So over the past few quarters, we've been focused on the development of an offering we call flexible fulfillment. Consumers now expect unlimited choices. Choices of selection, of location and of convenience, hence the market need for flexible fulfillment. It's about helping retailers enable every point of inventory -- a distribution center, a store, a supplier, a fulfillment hub -- become a point of direct customer order fulfillment working to maximize supply chain and inventory investments to deliver both for the consumer and the retailer.”
Manhattan SCOPE, Supply Chain Optimization, Planning Through Execution, is the only portfolio of supply chain commerce solutions built on a common technology platform available on the market today. Manhattan SCALE Supply Chain Architected for Logistics Execution, provides a bundled set of supply chain solutions—all integrated onto a single platform—making it easy to deploy, manage and upgrade. Isn’t it clever how they came up with these acronyms – SCOPE and SCALE?
I don’t know if it’s the neat acronyms or not but Manhattan's supply chain management software has caught on with a growing number of companies, particularly retailers, that need to make sure their products are in the right place to keep up with customer demand. They offer a soup to nuts package, so that all of the companies supply chain needs are addressed, and they don’t have to parse it up into different software packages from different companies. They do a great job getting into the corner office of companies with very complex supply chains. Manhattan's customers include Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) unit Cost Plus World Markets, Adidas Group, Lamps Plus and Columbia Sportswear (COLM), Chanel, Coach (COH), Heineken, Nike (NKE) and PepsiCo (PEP). Besides retail, they also run the transit packaging tracking systems for both UPS and FedEx. These companies do not fool around with their package tracking systems. MANH must be top notch!
The bulk of the revenue comes from professional services which emanates from their software licensing. Once they make the sale, it’s the gift that keeps on giving. Business software is a sticky product hence the existing customers will not easily switch out of Manhattan Associates. MANH has also scrambled to get out in front of ecommerce. Through its Distributed Order Management solution, Manhattan Associates helps the retailers to construct a single view of the customers across all of the sales channels and to leverage on the inventory across their network. They are able to sell more software to companies who are looking to grow their ecommerce....which means every company in the world.
Financially Manhattan Associates is healthy healthy healthy. The balance sheet is very strong with a total cash of $133 million versus $2,900 million market capitalization. The free cash flow has been generated consistently about 15% of revenue, which is an extremely high ratio. This shouldn’t be a surprise given that the profit margin is 16.2%, the operating margin is 24.4%. This has resulted in Return on Assets of 22.6% and a stunning Return on Equity of 39.2%. Now you know why I’m not sweating the high PE?
These guys are KILLING IT worldwide too. Manhattan Associates has won the 'Distribution Center Innovation' award at the Supply Chain Asia Awards 2013. The industry association recognized Manhattan for its market-leading Supply Chain Commerce solutions and how they have helped many of Asia's leading retailers, distributors and manufacturers optimize the performance of their supply chains and get closer to their customers.
In the recent conference call, the CEO said:
“Overall, 2013 was a very successful year for Manhattan Associates. Financial results were solid. Our competitive position improved considerably. Customer satisfaction increased. We continued to innovate at a rapid pace and extend our distribution management in omni-channel market leadership. All positioning us very well for 2014. We set new Q4 and full year revenue and earnings per share records. Q4 total revenue of $107.6 million increased 13% and adjusted earnings per share, on a split-adjusted basis, of $0.24, increased 33% over Q4 2012. For the full year 2013, total revenue of $414.5 million increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per share, again on a split-adjusted basis, of $0.92, increased 30% over 2012. The combination of strong revenue growth and prudent expense discipline led to our most successful year in the company's history.
In the quarter and for all of 2013 in head-to-head sales cycles against our major competitors, we're winning about 75% of the time. For the quarter, about 60% of our license revenue was from net new customers. And for the year, we finished at about 35% of total license revenue in that category.
As we look forward, we're very well positioned for 2014 and beyond. We're not expecting the global economy to improve significantly in 2014. And while we're certainly not immune, we continue to be optimistic but also a little cautious about our future. Our pipeline is solid. Services business demand is strong. Customer satisfaction is good. Implementations of our solutions continue to go very well. And we're very excited about the innovation in the next releases of our software solutions that will be released in 2014.”
The company is forecasting for 2014 revenue to grow total revenue at roughly 1.5x the market growth rate of 5% to 7%. Current annual guidance for 2014 revenue is to deliver $450 million to $455 million of total revenue representing 9% to 10% growth. For 2014 adjusted diluted earnings per share, the guidance range is $1.01 to $1.03 representing 10% to 12% growth over 2013 adjusted EPS of $0.92.
Of course the ANAL-ysts blindly follow the company guidance when they provide their guidance. I mean, why not? You can’t get fired from your 7 figure salary if you just repeat what the CEO tells you. Fortunately, you have $$$MR. MARKET$$$ who knows what the real earnings will be. Since MANH has surprised estimates to the upside by an average of 15%, there’s no reason to believe that their 2014 revenues won’t be $505 million with earnings of $1.15 per share. If they can carry their 44 PE for the next 3 months into earnings, that would project a share price of 44 x $1.15 = $50.60/share, which is well past my sell target.
But enough of this BS. Just look at the chart…look at the chart. It’s a straight line ticking off a 9% gain every month. I’ll make my 15% in no time. Then I’ll go out in Manhattan, drink 1000 beers and pee in the street.
I am HUGE!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
Others love the Manhattan culture:
$$$MR. MARKET$$$ says you can have it. I hated the Manhattan commute. And in the summer the place always smelled like pee.
There is one good thing about Manhattan. That’s where the stock market is and that’s where $$$MR. MARKET$$$ makes all of his money.
Today I bought stock in Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH) at 37.18 I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 42.85. Here’s why I like MANH
My God..look at the chart. The chart says it all. It’s a thing of beauty. It’s a work of art that should be hung in the Guggenheim. Its trend is such a straight line that it can’t deviate. A momentum stock lover’s DREAM!
This stock is up 110% over the last 52 weeks. That’s really great. It’s PE, however, is kind of high – 44. That’s not so great. But I love the chart. I freakin LOVE THE CHART.
Manhattan Associates, Inc. develops, sells, deploys, services, and maintains supply chain commerce software solutions for retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, governments, and other organizations to enhance their supply chain operations from planning through execution. The company operates in three segments: the Americas; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Its platform-based supply chain software solution portfolio includes Manhattan SCOPE and Manhattan SCALE. The company’s Manhattan SCOPE provides supply chain solution suites that include inventory optimization, transportation lifecycle management, and distribution management; and commerce chain solution suites comprising order lifecycle management, store inventory and fulfillment, and planning, as well as supply chain process platforms. Its Manhattan SCALE provides a portfolio of logistics execution solutions that offer trading partner management, yard management, optimization, warehouse management, and transportation execution services. The company also offers professional services, including solutions planning and implementation, and related consulting services; customer training and support services; and software enhancements. In addition, it sells computer hardware, radio frequency terminal networks, radio frequency identification chip readers, bar code printers and scanners, and other peripherals. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
If you just crawled out from under a rock and don’t know what supply chain is, well wake up. Supply Chain is an integral part of almost every company these days. Supply chain management is essentially coordinating the flow of products from suppliers to customers. In fact, universities are offering it as major. They used to exist for the purposes of making stuff as fast as you could. Companies had employees called “expediters” who would yell at other employees and suppliers and then go home and drink a 6 pack of Miller High Life. Now customers and their smart phones want to know everything about what they just ordered. So your supply chain had to get a lot more sophisticated and transparent. Manhattan Associates figured out that their supply chains should deliver the kind of personalized experiences that lock in loyalty and grow revenue— simply put, transforming your supply chain from just a money-saver to also be a money-maker.
Manhattan Associates' supply chain solutions for the food and beverage industry enable food and beverage manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers and retailers to respond quickly to changing demands, comply with burgeoning regulations and improve service levels. At the same time, you can enhance profits by reducing transportation costs and speeding deliveries.
Manhattan’s CEO recently said, “In today's retail supply chains, you need to be commerce-ready. So over the past few quarters, we've been focused on the development of an offering we call flexible fulfillment. Consumers now expect unlimited choices. Choices of selection, of location and of convenience, hence the market need for flexible fulfillment. It's about helping retailers enable every point of inventory -- a distribution center, a store, a supplier, a fulfillment hub -- become a point of direct customer order fulfillment working to maximize supply chain and inventory investments to deliver both for the consumer and the retailer.”
Manhattan SCOPE, Supply Chain Optimization, Planning Through Execution, is the only portfolio of supply chain commerce solutions built on a common technology platform available on the market today. Manhattan SCALE Supply Chain Architected for Logistics Execution, provides a bundled set of supply chain solutions—all integrated onto a single platform—making it easy to deploy, manage and upgrade. Isn’t it clever how they came up with these acronyms – SCOPE and SCALE?
I don’t know if it’s the neat acronyms or not but Manhattan's supply chain management software has caught on with a growing number of companies, particularly retailers, that need to make sure their products are in the right place to keep up with customer demand. They offer a soup to nuts package, so that all of the companies supply chain needs are addressed, and they don’t have to parse it up into different software packages from different companies. They do a great job getting into the corner office of companies with very complex supply chains. Manhattan's customers include Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) unit Cost Plus World Markets, Adidas Group, Lamps Plus and Columbia Sportswear (COLM), Chanel, Coach (COH), Heineken, Nike (NKE) and PepsiCo (PEP). Besides retail, they also run the transit packaging tracking systems for both UPS and FedEx. These companies do not fool around with their package tracking systems. MANH must be top notch!
The bulk of the revenue comes from professional services which emanates from their software licensing. Once they make the sale, it’s the gift that keeps on giving. Business software is a sticky product hence the existing customers will not easily switch out of Manhattan Associates. MANH has also scrambled to get out in front of ecommerce. Through its Distributed Order Management solution, Manhattan Associates helps the retailers to construct a single view of the customers across all of the sales channels and to leverage on the inventory across their network. They are able to sell more software to companies who are looking to grow their ecommerce....which means every company in the world.
Financially Manhattan Associates is healthy healthy healthy. The balance sheet is very strong with a total cash of $133 million versus $2,900 million market capitalization. The free cash flow has been generated consistently about 15% of revenue, which is an extremely high ratio. This shouldn’t be a surprise given that the profit margin is 16.2%, the operating margin is 24.4%. This has resulted in Return on Assets of 22.6% and a stunning Return on Equity of 39.2%. Now you know why I’m not sweating the high PE?
These guys are KILLING IT worldwide too. Manhattan Associates has won the 'Distribution Center Innovation' award at the Supply Chain Asia Awards 2013. The industry association recognized Manhattan for its market-leading Supply Chain Commerce solutions and how they have helped many of Asia's leading retailers, distributors and manufacturers optimize the performance of their supply chains and get closer to their customers.
In the recent conference call, the CEO said:
“Overall, 2013 was a very successful year for Manhattan Associates. Financial results were solid. Our competitive position improved considerably. Customer satisfaction increased. We continued to innovate at a rapid pace and extend our distribution management in omni-channel market leadership. All positioning us very well for 2014. We set new Q4 and full year revenue and earnings per share records. Q4 total revenue of $107.6 million increased 13% and adjusted earnings per share, on a split-adjusted basis, of $0.24, increased 33% over Q4 2012. For the full year 2013, total revenue of $414.5 million increased 10%, and adjusted earnings per share, again on a split-adjusted basis, of $0.92, increased 30% over 2012. The combination of strong revenue growth and prudent expense discipline led to our most successful year in the company's history.
In the quarter and for all of 2013 in head-to-head sales cycles against our major competitors, we're winning about 75% of the time. For the quarter, about 60% of our license revenue was from net new customers. And for the year, we finished at about 35% of total license revenue in that category.
As we look forward, we're very well positioned for 2014 and beyond. We're not expecting the global economy to improve significantly in 2014. And while we're certainly not immune, we continue to be optimistic but also a little cautious about our future. Our pipeline is solid. Services business demand is strong. Customer satisfaction is good. Implementations of our solutions continue to go very well. And we're very excited about the innovation in the next releases of our software solutions that will be released in 2014.”
The company is forecasting for 2014 revenue to grow total revenue at roughly 1.5x the market growth rate of 5% to 7%. Current annual guidance for 2014 revenue is to deliver $450 million to $455 million of total revenue representing 9% to 10% growth. For 2014 adjusted diluted earnings per share, the guidance range is $1.01 to $1.03 representing 10% to 12% growth over 2013 adjusted EPS of $0.92.
Of course the ANAL-ysts blindly follow the company guidance when they provide their guidance. I mean, why not? You can’t get fired from your 7 figure salary if you just repeat what the CEO tells you. Fortunately, you have $$$MR. MARKET$$$ who knows what the real earnings will be. Since MANH has surprised estimates to the upside by an average of 15%, there’s no reason to believe that their 2014 revenues won’t be $505 million with earnings of $1.15 per share. If they can carry their 44 PE for the next 3 months into earnings, that would project a share price of 44 x $1.15 = $50.60/share, which is well past my sell target.
But enough of this BS. Just look at the chart…look at the chart. It’s a straight line ticking off a 9% gain every month. I’ll make my 15% in no time. Then I’ll go out in Manhattan, drink 1000 beers and pee in the street.
I am HUGE!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
I'm already a shareholder and your pick makes me feel even better 
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