BFR ==> The Protein Shake Winner

[mrmarket]

I'm not sure it is that simple.

I agree that the bank may be being hit for events that it has no responsiblity.

But.... If Argentina tanks, then the bank will experience bad domestic loans and associated losses. Even if it has not exposure to the Ukraine. Further, the US Treasury department could lift their license to transact in the US, effectively barring them from international transactions which will also negatively affect income.

so, the PVGO goes waaaaay down if there is a seriously negative event for Argentina. That being said, I think the market is being too sensitive to the possibility of that happening. I think the Fed will step in and shake some trees to make sure it does not happen. Look at Long Term Capital. But the regulatory environment is different now vs what the Fed did with LTC. How hard headed are the people running the hedge fund that didn't settle the debt? They are winning in court so far. They could make things very ugly for Argentina.

Gino....did you check and see who else this activist hedge fund has been disrupting?

[mrmarket]

PE now below 5!

[Lucavia123]

PE now below 5!

I think a bottom of upon us. BFR is in a perfect buy position.

[mrmarket]

I think a bottom of upon us. BFR is in a perfect buy position.

I hope your right. On the one hand, I don't see anything changing this bank's performance. On the other hand, everyone can't be stupid and it sucks having to catch a falling knife. Long and strong.

[Gribbs]

I took a small position here and now doing some deeper DD.

How do you guys think about a normalized P/E in light of the blue market exchange rate (and in light of anticipated currency devaluation)?

In the trailing twelve months through 6/30, looks like Earnings per ADS were 17.8 pesos (or 17.13 pesos if you look at 'recurring earnings' excluding some bond gains). Based on the quoted currency conversion of 8.39 ARS/USD, that implies a P/E of a little less than 5x, but I'm seeing a Blue Dollar rate of 13.55 pesos/dollar which implies an 8x P/E. Still a cheap valuation but maybe not as low as some think.

See here on the current Blue Rate:

http://en.mercopress.com/2014/08/21/the-blue-dollar-ended-trading-on-wednesday-at-13.55-argentine-pesos

[mrmarket]

I took a small position here and now doing some deeper DD.

How do you guys think about a normalized P/E in light of the blue market exchange rate (and in light of anticipated currency devaluation)?

In the trailing twelve months through 6/30, looks like Earnings per ADS were 17.8 pesos (or 17.13 pesos if you look at 'recurring earnings' excluding some bond gains). Based on the quoted currency conversion of 8.39 ARS/USD, that implies a P/E of a little less than 5x, but I'm seeing a Blue Dollar rate of 13.55 pesos/dollar which implies an 8x P/E. Still a cheap valuation but maybe not as low as some think.

See here on the current Blue Rate:
http://en.mercopress.com/2014/08/21/...rgentine-pesos

Yes...you most definitely have to consider the exchange rate. There is no question we'll see some real inflationary activity in Argentina which will devalue their currency, but it's more or less a race against the earnings trajectory of this institution. If BFR keeps spitting out the earnings in the same ballpark as what they've been doing - and maybe even better with the recent growth trajectory and resource investment that's going on there - the earnings will force the stock price to go up. All you need is a couple of quarters of really good earnings, and people will start to forget about the macro stuff (or fears of stuff) which hasn't negatively impacted the business.

[mrmarket]

Up 8% today...here we go?

[seabric1]

I'll keep the mojo going... obligatory Lionel Messi gif:

https://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/thumb/857041662.gif?1402875194

When 14.25 rolls around, I'll be yelling "GOOOOAAAALLLLLL!"

[mrmarket]

The trend is your friend.

[mrmarket]

Argentina Stocks Rally: Bring In the French?


By Dimitra DeFotis

Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesArgentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Argentina’s senate on Wednesday mulled a bill to sidestep the U.S. court ruling that resulted in Argentina’s July debt default, and a handful of local stocks including banks rallied.
Among the issues Argentina’s senate was debating: including an amendment to add France as a jurisdiction for making Argentine bond payments, Reuters reports. If the measure passes, it would move to the lower house of Congress for approval.
Shares of Argentine regional banks rose: BBVA Banco Frances (FRAN.Argentina) jumped nearly 7% and Banco Macro (BMA) rose 6.8%. Integrated oil and gas companies also were on the rise: YPF (YPF) was up nearly 6% and Petrobras Argentina (PZE) was up 4%. Telecom Argentina (TEO) gained 3.7%. Telecommunications company Nortel Inversora (NTL) was among the decliners, along with the Buenos Aires-based McDonald’s franchiser in Latin America, Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO); each fell 0.4%.
Reuters reports:

“President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner wants to resume servicing sovereign bonds that were restructured after Argentina’s previous default in 2001. The bill is her attempt at putting the country’s debt out of reach of U.S. courts that have jurisdiction over some of Argentina’s original bond contracts … A Manhattan court has banned Argentina from making interest payments on restructured debt held under U.S. law until it settles with a group of hedge funds who rejected restructurings in 2005 and 2010 and are suing for full payment. Those who agreed to the restructurings got less than 30 cents on the dollar while the ‘holdout’ hedge funds sued for full repayment.”

[billyjoe]

Cristina Kirchner is 61 ! I would have voted for her 10 years ago had I been a citizen of Argentina, but she's getting a little long in the tooth. I'll stick with Mrs. billy. https://www.google.com/search?q=cris...w=1680&bih=891- Come to think of it she looks like the babe that sets up millionnaires on dates.

-------------------billy

[mrmarket]

Viva la france!

[mrmarket]

up 8% today....you seeeeees?

[riverbabe]

Viva la france!

Hey huge one, too much Spanish in your life... It's actually "Vive la France" and "Viva la Espana". But who cares? "Vive la difference!"

[mrmarket]

Up 7% today....up over my purchase price....can I hear everyone say...."YOU SEEEES?"