BlueWolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment (New and Improved with Better Flavor!)

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 23, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 23, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The Dow and S&P are now behaving similarly to the NASDAQ and I have therefore not included a chart for them.

The indices all experienced a little pullback this week, thanks to Thursday’s gap down and Friday’s fade. Still, the indices are all well within their regression channels, and none of the macro level indicators seem to suggest anything but continued bullishness. Looking on a bar-by-bar basis, however, particularly the bars at the end of the week, suggests some near term weakness. I also saw a lot of exhaustion patterns in bullish stocks that seemed to reinforce the short term bearishness. All of this leaves me a little neutral for both the short and long term. I expect this ambiguity to resolve over the coming week, and I am hoping to have a clearer picture by the end of the week.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/agkakolxp9...02020.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: -
Short: ANF, EHTH, LTHM, MGNI, NVCR, VEEV
Possible LT additions: GOOG, KNSL, PLUG, WD
Interesting IPOs: FROG

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 30, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 30, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The Dow and S&P are now behaving similarly to the NASDAQ and I have therefore not included their charts.

The latest action of all three indices is very bearish as far as I am concerned. On a longer term scale, all three indices failed to make higher pivot highs, which is usually an indication of an imminent trend change. On a shorter term scale, the indices are basing at their recent lows, which is normally a pretty bearish sign. Of course, the market has a mind of its own, and anything can happen. The tea leaves are giving off bearish signals, however, and I have go with the indicators here so both my short and long term bias is currently bearish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ov4wi011b1...02020.jpg?dl=0

During my scans this weekend, I saw a number of stocks on my long term watchlists that looked like they might be getting ready for a little bounce. I am hesitant to consider them as possible long term additions because of the market action, however, so I added these to my short term long trade candidates. It’s possible that I could enter these for a short term trade and then roll it into a longer term hold, but for now I am treating them as short term candidates only. I did see a couple of stocks on the watchlist that could be setting up for a more prolonged move up, and I listed these on my Possible LT additions list. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: ARMK, DDOG, ESTC, EXPI, FSLY, OKTA
Short: GSX, UNFI, USX
Possible LT additions: MDLA, WD
Interesting IPOs: MSP

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 6, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 6, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar to the NASDAQ and I have therefore not included its chart.

The NASDAQ is in a bit of an ambiguous state right now, although it has clearly been showing a lot of weakness. There are several ways to interpret the state of the NASDAQ as I have shown in the annotated chart, but I am inclined to favor the downtrend interpretation, even though it has not yet been confirmed. This is because the Dow is unambiguously in a downtrend, and I suspect that the NASDAQ will follow. My near and long term bias therefore remains bearish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rbx7syf40k...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the DOW:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/n0hpirmt2h...02020.jpg?dl=0

I didn’t see any long setups I liked for short term trading, but I did find a few short setups. I definitely won’t be adding any LT positions until the long term indicators become more bullish. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: (none)
Short: AYX, GOGO, GSX, TTD, UNFI
Possible LT additions: (none)
Interesting IPOs: AVIR

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 13, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 13, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar to the NASDAQ and I have therefore not included its chart.

Well, my favored scenario of the NASDAQ transitioning into a downtrend didn’t play out, and, in fact, the market jinked up higher this week. The other two of last weeks possible scenarios are still in play in NASDAQ. Making the process of interpretation difficult, however, is a significant divergence in the Dow, which has clearly transitioned into a downtrend off its September high. With the Dow and S&P possibly up trending and the Dow definitely down trending, what does this mean? Don’t look at me because I don’t know. I’m sort of chalking it up to election-related volatility, but the bottom line is that it has pushed me into a neutral bias for both the short and long term. We’ll just have to see how it all converges.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jxv9i36ikm...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/fhgbsoi1oq...02020.jpg?dl=0

I didn’t come up with a whole lot of setups this week, but here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long Day Trade: FLEX, NNOX, SNAP, U
Short Day Trade: LEVI
Possible Swing/LT Trade: QDEL, SFIX
Interesting IPOs: ARRY

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 20, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 20, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar to the Dow and I have therefore not included its chart.

What a difference a week makes. With the Dow mired in a downtrend and the S&P and NASDAQ in a somewhat ambiguous mode, everything changed with particularly strong moves up by both the Dow and S&P to put all three indices in uptrends of some sort (it’s still a little early for the Dow trend to have much definition). I saw a lot of bottoming patterns in Dow stocks in my scans this weekend which reinforced the popular notion that companies with some sort of brick and mortar component were moving higher on the Pfizer vaccine news. On the flip side of this, the NASDAQ took a little bit of a hit as internet-sales based companies sold off, presumably on the idea that their sales would be hurt once the economy opened up again. I’m not so sure I agree with this perception, but it doesn’t pay to bet against the market. In any event, the NASDAQ sell off was not severe enough to break its uptrend and so all three indices look like they are headed higher for the longer term. As for the shorter term, volatility and “gappiness” have me hesitate to bet on a market direction and so I am neutral.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/wn5ydomt8r...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rtspub0tgi...02020.jpg?dl=0

I didn’t feel strongly enough about short term market direction to pick many candidates, so the short term pickings are slim. I am more inclined to look for some swing or longer term long candidates. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long Day Trade: -
Short Day Trade: QDEL
Swing/LT Trade: ANET, LYV, SDGR, SPCE
Interesting IPOs: U

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 27, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Nov 27, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are somewhat similar, although they are in much sloppier consolidation patterns near the top of their sloppy regression channels. In other words, everything is pretty sloppy here.

The long term bullishness in the market remains intact after a week+ of consolidation. The consolidation is pretty clean in the NASDAQ and a lot sloppier in the Dow and S&P, although it is there. For these reasons, my longer term bias is still bullish. Given the wide boundaries of the regression channels I was able to fit along with the sloppiness, I am not very confident in trying to make a short term call. My short term bias is therefore neutral going into the new week. I’ll just have to see what the tea leaves tell me after another week of data.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/q35w7x39ik...02020.jpg?dl=0

I’m still a little bullishly inclined for the longer term, i.e. for long term/swing longs, but my short term candidates were a little thinner and mostly shorts. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long Day Trade: BRX, NET, PING
Short Day Trade: DXCM, LU, MA, NAVI
Swing/LT Trade: FTCH,KNSL, RDFN, SDGR, SPCE, TTD, ZUO
Interesting IPOs: -

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

I know it’s been a tough year, and the holidays won’t quite be the same, but I hope everyone can make the best of it and still have a great Thanksgiving!🍗

[mimo_100]

Some recent Buffett buys: November 23, 2020

-- AbbVie (ABBV)

-- Merck & Co. (MRK)

-- Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)

-- Snowflake (SNOW)

-- T-Mobile US (TMUS)

-- Pfizer (PFE)

-- Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

-- General Motors Co. (GM)

[Louetta]

Some recent Buffett buys: November 23, 2020

-- AbbVie (ABBV)

-- Merck & Co. (MRK)

-- Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)

-- Snowflake (SNOW)

-- T-Mobile US (TMUS)

-- Pfizer (PFE)

-- Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

-- General Motors Co. (GM)

SNOW is an interesting choice for the Buffett organization.

[BlueWolf]

SNOW is an interesting choice for the Buffett organization.

It is indeed. I thought he avoided tech companies.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Dec 04, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Dec 04, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and the Dow. The S&P and Dow are somewhat similar although the S&P was just off from making a new all time high.

The NASDAQ broke out of it consolidation and moved higher this week, ultimately making a new all-time high. The Dow continued its consolidation after breaking out from its downtrend, although the index was able to creep up enough to also make a new all-time high. The macro view for all three indices still looks pretty bullish and my longer term bias therefore remains bullish. For the shorter term, I’m still feeling cautious because of recent volatility, but the bullish consolidation of the Dow and S&P along with the breakout from consolidation to the upside by the NASDAQ has me feeling a little bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/o22ian5iv4ysemx/NASDAQ%20Nov%2028%2C%202020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5hczi3lgws...02020.jpg?dl=0

I didn’t find many short term traders this week, and most of the stocks I did find were long setups. Because of my longer term bullishness, I have a number of stocks I am watching for swing or buy-and-hold trading. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long Day Trade: FII, TLRY
Short Day Trade: -
Swing/LT Trade: ANET, CRWD, FRPT, INSP, MTCH, NOW, NVCR, PINS, SFIX, SNOW, SPCE
Interesting IPOs: QS

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Dec 11, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Dec 11, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow have now come into better alignment with the NASDAQ and so I have not included their charts.

I’m going to keep it short this week. I replotted a regression channel for the NASDAQ that should better predict where the inflection points are likely to occur. This new, tighter channel also mirrors the current trends in the Dow and S&P. All the indices are now showing bullishness as the push to new highs with greatly reduced volatility. For this reason, my long term bias remains bullish. All three indices closed strong on Friday, near the daily highs, and for this reason, my short term bias also remains bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/w7f5ot2ic1...02020.jpg?dl=0

During my scans, I saw a lot of bullish movement in energy stocks. I included a couple in my day trade list. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long Day Trade: MAC, MOS, MRO, RAMP, VERI
Short Day Trade: BIG, LI
Swing/LT Trade: FVRR, IPOC, SPLK
Interesting IPOs: LAZR, QS, SEER

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[Louetta]

LAZR is an interesting choice from your list. Today I heard that Waymo, owned by Google, will IPO sometime in 2021, which covers a lot of ground. From what I understand LAZR makes an important component for self driving vehicles while Waymo makes a vehicle. Some say this makes Waymo better but of course LAZR could sell their components to anybody, including large auto manufacturers who get into the self driving business.

[BlueWolf]

LAZR is an interesting choice from your list. Today I heard that Waymo, owned by Google, will IPO sometime in 2021, which covers a lot of ground. From what I understand LAZR makes an important component for self driving vehicles while Waymo makes a vehicle. Some say this makes Waymo better but of course LAZR could sell their components to anybody, including large auto manufacturers who get into the self driving business.

I thought it was interesting. It hasn’t made any of my watchlists yet, but I have taken an interest in it and I do like the fact that they can sell to anybody, i.e. they aren’t linked to any single car manufacturer so they are more of an infrastructure stock.

[BlueWolf]

Maybe I should have jumped on LAZR like I did for NNOX. LAZR has been a two bagger in just four days. BTW, speaking of NNOX, I guess their demos at the radiology conference must have went well. The stock jumped back up into the $60’s, although it is currently pulling back. In any event, it’s back on my radar. If it’s real, they have an amazing technology that could propel a lot of growth, so I might take a shot again at some point.