BlueWolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment (New and Improved with Better Flavor!)

[BlueWolf]

Good analysis. I bought some stuff too, late this week. Solid citizen stuff: V, MA, MSFT, AAPL, ADBE. (Still can't understand why BUD is down 20%. Do they think people will drink less?)

I was lead to believe that the three best bets in a recession were alcohol, fast food, and fashion, so I was puzzled too, but it looks like they got a major downgrade. I’m worried about what Monday will bring too. I’ve been watching the futures, and things were looking good until a few hours ago when they started rolling over. If we don’t find some support here, things could get very nasty and I might be in and out faster than a Bernie Sanders tax dollar.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending March 13, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending March 13, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for either the Dow or the S&P. Other than the level of their retrace, the patterns in these indices are very similar to the NASDAQ.

In short, I would say the market is teetering at the rim of a precipice. All three indices are hovering at key Fibonacci retracement levels, although the DOW is at a very bearish level, the NASDAQ is at bullish level, and the S&P is in between. Both this Friday’s and last Friday’s bar showed that there is still a lot of bullish buying interest out there, but the tsunami of Coronavirus bad news has so far overwhelmed any attempts to create a sustainable rally. I don’t see any reason for that to change, i.e., as goes the Coronavirus so goes the market. For that reason I have a neutral bias for both the short and long term. I don’t have a good feel for what is going to happen here, but as oversold as the market is, I’m not ruling out another big leg down. We’ll just have to see.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6wfs1zi95o...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

During my scans, I saw what pretty much looked like a wasteland of broken down stocks. I saw lots and lots of bearish charts, but I didn’t see much that looked imminently shortable. Everything looks primed for a bounce, but another round of bad news will keep that from happening. So the stocks on my watchlist this week for short term day or swing trades are paltry and tentative at best. For what it’s worth, here they are:
Longs: MRNA
Shorts: EC, NAV, SGRY

Good luck with your trading and investing, and, if you have a mind to, join me in praying for those affected by the Coronavirus.

[Louetta]

Right now US equity futures are down 4%, oil prices 21% based on the oil producers price war which I certainly didn't forsee (of course that could change before morning and probably will).

What did have me worried is the NBA warning teams they may have to play before empty houses, government officials appearing on talk shows and warning folks of possible changes to their lives, people wondering if they'll be a final four tournament. Some of this stuff sounds trivial, like the basketball, but it does seem like there will be lots of stuff going down, some or much of which will hurt economic activity. I hear people on CNBC saying stuff is very oversold but just as you say it isn't if there's still a lot of stuff ahead of us.

[mimo_100]

Barron's Magazine

MARKETS
Stock Futures Were Halted Sunday Night. Here’s When S&P 500 Circuit Breakers Kick In on Monday.
By Lisa Beilfuss
Updated March 8, 2020 10:30 pm ET / Original March 8, 2020 9:35 pm ET

Futures on the S&P 500 were halted Sunday night after they declined 5%. So-called circuit-breaker levels are the thresholds at which exchanges halt or close marketwide trading due to extreme declines. These levels are calculated daily, based on the previous day’s close in the S&P 500.

As the wild swings on Wall Street continue, here are the levels to watch for further trading curbs when U.S. markets open Monday.

READ MORE
Stock Market Panics as Oil Prices Tumble
Coronavirus Update: 3,600 New Cases Outside China Reported Sunday
Northern Italy Locked Down
Level One Breach

A 7% decline in the S&P 500 from the prior day’s close would trigger a level one breach, where trading is halted for 15 minutes.

That level for regular trading on Monday is 2764.30, a 208 point drop from Friday’s close of 2972.37.

[Fateup]

Barron's Magazine

Recent News:

Oil Prices Are Tumbling, But Global Electric Vehicles Will Be Just Fine, Says UBS

Chart of Wall Street’s ‘fear’ index in 2020 illustrates how unhinged stock markets have been over coronavirus compared to the 2008 crisis

The Dow Is Falling Again. Stock in Dramamine’s Maker Soared on Tuesday.

Bank of England Gives Fed and ECB a Lesson in Central Banking in The Age of Coronavirus

Dow futures down over 700 points as hopes fade for quick fiscal stimulus response to coronavirus

Oil falls 3% as Saudi Arabia moves to boost production capacity in price war

Gold pops higher, poised to post fourth gain in 5 sessions

Treasury yields slide as policy response to coronavirus comes into focus

Fintech’s business lenders face a corona-crunch

Prudential Is Floating a Stake in U.S. Insurer Jackson National. Now May Be A Good Time to Buy.

Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison Bought More of the Retailer’s Beaten-Down Stock

The Bank of England Cut Interest Rates in a Surprise Move

Adidas and Puma Fall on Coronavirus Fears. With Sports Events Under Threat, The Worst Is Yet To Come.

The Dow Snaps Back for a Gain of 4.9%

Low-Volatility Stocks Are a Winner Now. Thank Falling Interest Rates.

After the Market Rout, Preferred Stocks Are Yielding an Appealing 5%

[BlueWolf]

Check out the monthly VIX chart I have provided a link for. We haven’t seen this level of volatility since 2008. What’s more, the chart is suggesting there is more to come. It’s going to take a long time to recover from this mess.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zlf183f67ltvj4e/Photo%20Mar%2013%2C%2010%2012%2053%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending March 20, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending March 20, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily and monthly chart for the Dow, an annotated daily chart to the Nasdaq, and an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ up-down volume difference. I have not included chart for the S&P, which is similar to the NASDAQ.

Once again, the market took a beating, but this time, some significant thresholds were crossed. All three indices retraced into bearish Fibonacci territory. The DOW, in particular, has become worrisome because it has now retraced 100% of the trend it started in early 2019, i.e. it has wiped out all the gains of 2019. The NASDAQ was not quite so dire, although it did break the 61.8% bearish retrace threshold. The S&P, as has been the case lately, was somewhere in between, but still bearish. I also took a look at the monthly DOW chart, and plotted a Fibonacci against the ten year bull market that started in 2009. What I found is that if the market were to hold here, it would represent a 38.2% bullish retrace.

So what does this all mean? Well, in my experience, when a stock or index retraces more than 61.8%, it is likely to transition into a bear market of some kind. The fact that we have only retraced 38.2% of the 10 year bull market also tells me that we have more room to fall. Furthermore, given the severity of the retrace on the daily chart for the current 15 month up trend, we could be looking at months or even years before the market turns bullish and transitions into an uptrend capable of making new highs. Because the current correction happened so suddenly, I do expect we are going to see a significant bounce or two, but I am not expecting any such bounce to form the basis of an up trend. There is still too much that has to be assimilated before the market can regain its bullish health. Even after the Coronavirus is contained and the threat starts to recede, there will still be the economic aftermath to deal with. The closure of so many events and the shutdown of so many businesses will create consequences come earnings season. For these reasons my long term sentiment is bearish. Since Friday’s had a wide ranging green bar on strong volume in all three indices, my short term bias is bullish since I am expecting (hoping for?) more to the current bounce.

I should add that all this analysis that is based on technical indicators is a little tentative. Basically, the market right now is being totally driven by Coronavirus news, not charting patterns. The patterns can help us gauge the magnitude of reactions and trade accordingly, but if the news continues to as bad as it has been, there will be more legs down and oversold indicators won’t mean a thing. What worries me is that before the declaration of emergency by the federal government on Friday, I hadn’t seen anything that indicated to me that this crisis was being dealt with effectively. Let’s hope the measures they announced will start to turn things around. I think the drive through sampling is a good start, but they still haven’t determined who will actually perform the tests. Right now, only the CDC is performing the actual tests. Part of the emergency plan is to allow state level agencies and private labs to perform the tests. I read, however, that several of the big medical laboratories that can do the testing are refusing to handle Coronavirus samples en masse because of the threat it poses to their employees. There still a lot to be worked out here, and if there is one thing the markets don’t like, it uncertainty.

So, fasten your seat belts, and be prepared for a rough ride. I hope I’m wrong about the bearishness to come, but everything seems to point to this.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5i6egow6nx...%20AM.jpg?dl=0
Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/wxexg1nm5c...%20AM.jpg?dl=0
Annotated Monthly Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/e9niebuhwb...%20AM.jpg?dl=0
Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ Up-Down Volume Difference:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/yr9uohdepn...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Needless to say, my scans turned up a lot of stocks in potential bottoming patterns. I had to prune this list down considerably, and I used fundamentals and long term trends to do this. I ended up with a handful of stocks with bottoming patterns that I might trade long. I didn’t turn up nearly as many stocks in my short scans, with most of the ones I did turn up not surprisingly being momentum plays. Unfortunately, many of these satcoms were on the Hard To Borrow list at my brokers, so I wouldn’t be able to short them. I therefore ended with very few short candidates, and I’m not that crazy about the ones I did find. Here are the stocks I will be watching for possible day and swing trading opportunities at the start of the week:
Longs: APPF, AVGO, CDLX, EPAM, HQY, NEE, NTNX, PANW, PAYC, RH, SFIX, SQ
Shorts: AMEH, ENPH, NAV,

Good luck with your trading and investing, and, as always, if you have a mind to, join me in praying for those affected by the Coronavirus. A lot of people are suffering because of this deadly disease.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending March 27, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending March 27, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for the Dow or S&P, which are similar to the NASDAQ.

Once again, I provide technical analysis that is tentative while the market continues to digest all the CoronaVirus related news. The good news is that the market took a bit of a pause last week from the extreme bloodletting of the previous few weeks. This pause is not necessarily a bottoming pattern, however, as bottoms are notoriously difficult to predict. Where we head from here is anyone’s guess and will totally depend on the breadth and depth of news over the weekend. For that reason, my short term bias is neutral. I’m of the opinion that we won’t see a bottom to the market until we show signs of turning the corner with the virus, and I personally believe we are still weeks away from that happening. For that reason, my long term bias remains bearish. I hope I’m wrong about that, but until it does happen, if you’re not already out, stay out of the market and sit on your cash. This market will eventually reverse, and when it does, there are going to be some extraordinary buying opportunities. If you’re stuck in the market, stay strong, and play the long game. Your stocks will eventually recover. Most importantly, hunker down and stay healthy.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/768hsj7q3l...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

My scans turned up hundreds of short and long setups. The short setups were all momentum plays while the long setups were all dead cat bounces, most of which I didn’t like all that much. All in all, I am skeptical right now about finding good trades. I cherry picked a few that I felt more strongly about for possible day and swing trading opportunities at the start of the week:
Longs: BFAM
Shorts: BAC, BBY, CAKE, CHTR, EFX, ENPH

Good luck with your trading and investing, and, as always, if you have a mind to, join me in praying for those affected by the Coronavirus.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending April 3, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending April 3, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for the Dow or S&P, which are similar to the NASDAQ.

We got a little bit of a bounce last week in all three indices after a few weeks of landslides. How far this bounce will take the markets is anybody’s guess, but it is important to note that the market has retraced back up to the 38.2% level from its bottom. Should the market roll over here, it would be a very bearish retrace suggesting that new lows were coming. I’d love to see the market continue its bounce, but, honestly, I don’t see much of a reason why it should do that unless the positive reaction to the Coronavirus rescue package continues into the new week. Any bad news this weekend will surely cut the legs out from any optimism. Already we are seeing hints that the market may be headed back down as Friday’s bar in the NASDAQ was a bearish Harami with a fairly pronounced topping tail. For this reason my near term bias is bearish as is my long term bias.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/n0rkpzizxw...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

I turned up quite a few stocks that looked like they were ready to roll over in my scans and even found a few bullish picks for what they’re worth. Here are the stocks I will be watching for possible day and swing trading opportunities at the start of the week:
Longs: APT, BFAM, INO
Shorts: AKBA, CAR, DENN, HTZ, HXL, LL, LVS, SGMS, SPR, VSH

Good luck with your trading and investing, and, as always, if you have a mind to, join me in praying for those affected by the Coronavirus.

[wifwif]

Dear BlueWolf,
thank you very much for your great and informative Market Sentiment postings. Always great to read!
I used last weeks' upward movement to sell the rest of my remaining equities (I haven't sold already before). So since last week I am completely into cash.
Unfortunately I think the recovery from Corona COVID-19 will take much longer than most people think...
Thank you very much again!
Best regards
wifwif

[BlueWolf]

Dear BlueWolf,
thank you very much for your great and informative Market Sentiment postings. Always great to read!
I used last weeks' upward movement to sell the rest of my remaining equities (I haven't sold already before). So since last week I am completely into cash.
Unfortunately I think the recovery from Corona COVID-19 will take much longer than most people think...
Thank you very much again!
Best regards
wifwif

i think you are right, wifwif. I am very tempted to start selling myself, and if we get a little better bounce, I probably will and then just short term trade. Good luck.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending April 10, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending April 10, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for the Dow or S&P, which are similar to the NASDAQ.

As I feared last week, the indices rolled over at the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level, which is a very bearish bounce. For this reason, my long term bias remains bearish. Friday’s bar also suggested more bearishness to come. For this reason, my short term bias is bearish. Barring any market lifting news, it is my opinion that the indices will take out their prior pivot low. I just don’t see anything in the tea leaves right now to suggest that the market is heading higher.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/saqzroq7xq...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

I found quite a few long and short setups this weeks, although not many of them were high quality, particularly the long setups. Here are some stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: APT, ARNC, CME, FTAI
Shorts: APTV, FEYE, FLEX, GPC, KAR, LPLA, NVST, ROST, TJX

Good luck with your trading and investing, and join me in continuing to send healing thoughts and prayers to those affected by the Coronavirus.

[Louetta]

Happy Birthday, BlueWolf.

[BlueWolf]

Happy Birthday, BlueWolf.

Thank you, Louetta!

[jiesen]

Yes, a Happy Birthday to you, and here's to many, many more!