BlueWolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment (New and Improved with Better Flavor!)

[wifwif]

Only 1 more to the A/D-Line = Joe Duarte Money Options: "The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) remains the most accurate predictor of the price trend for U.S. stocks since the 2016 election."

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending November 22, 2019

Market sentiment for week ending November 22, 2019

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and DOW are showing similar patterns at this time.

After consolidating for over a week, the market finally broke out to the upside on Friday after some encouraging news regarding a trade deal with China. The bar on Friday was strong and closed near the the HOD. For that reason, my short time bias remains bullish.

Regarding a trade deal, if a deal with China is signed, it will very likely provide the market with a lot of fuel to continue its upward climb. That and some good earnings have me convinced that the market still has a lot of life in it, and my long term bias is therefore bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/lesskk2qhl...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Once again, I’m not loving the setups, but here are some stocks I will be watching at the start of the week for day/swing trading opportunities.
Longs: BE, DXC, INSM, MRNA, PGNY, RLGY
Shorts: MAT, RUTH, VOD

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending November 29, 2019

Market sentiment for week ending November 29, 2019

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and DOW are showing similar patterns at this time.

I don’t have a whole lot to say this week as the market action was pretty neutral. After gapping up at the end of the previous week, the market spent this week pausing for a consolidation. Bottoming tails on every bar seem to indicate that the bulls are still trying push the indices higher, and, for that reason, my short term bias remains bullish. There wasn’t any data this week that would alter my long term bias, which also remains bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/747c7nc8kq...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I’m still not seeing a lot of juicy short term trading setups. I did have a couple of hits last week, and I’m hoping for a few more this week, but they may come later in the week. Here are some stocks I will be watching at the start of the week for day/swing trading opportunities.
Longs: ATNX, CLDR, FSLY
Shorts: HES, JACK, LCI

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending December 6, 2019

Market sentiment for week ending December 6, 2019

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and DOW are showing similar patterns at this time.

All three indices are showing considerable bullish strength, trading in tight regression channels with extremely low volatility. In fact, volatility hasn’t been this low for this long since before last year’s October-December correction. There’s probably a lesson to be learned there in that when this bullish market does correct, it will likely correct hard. The regression channel can help warn us about that, as breaking regression channel boundaries is usually a strong indication of a trend change. We therefore need to be wary should the price penetrate the lower channel boundary. I usually like to see a bar form completely outside of the channel, i.e. a bar that opens and closes outside the channel, for confirmation. Until that happens, all signs are bullish for both the short and long term.

As for recession fears, I know many pundits are still making noise about an imminent recession. I certainly think it’s a good idea to be wary, but personally, I still don’t think a recession is on the immediate horizon. I am therefore going to continue to take advantage of market bullishness as long as I can, trying to discern the difference between the temporary corrections that are bound to come and the big kahuna that indicates the starts of a truly long term, recession-driven bear market.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rfixkf59b...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

As a result of all the bullishness, I am seeing far more bullish setups than short setups. There are quite a few bullish basing patterns right now. Here are some of the stocks I will be watching at the start of the week for day/swing trading opportunities.
Longs: ARNC, BERY, CNC, DXC, I*, MASI, NOW, STT, VMV
Shorts: LCI, MUR

*-The setup for I is not based on a chart pattern, but rather on fundamentals and recent news. I am expecting a bounce in this stock at some point. Should you trade this stock, do it with caution and look for confirmation, i.e. taking out a prior bar’s high or breaking out from a regression channel, before entering, and use a tight stop.

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Do I need to say it? The trend is broken. I’ll post a mid week update later.

[Louetta]

Do I need to say it? The trend is broken. I’ll post a mid week update later.

My little tracking thing for your stocks shows them up a tad for the day, despite the general carnage, led by stuff like TTD, SHOP, ROKU ... Interesting.

[BlueWolf]

My little tracking thing for your stocks shows them up a tad for the day, despite the general carnage, led by stuff like TTD, SHOP, ROKU ... Interesting.

I took beating yesterday and a lot of my profits eroded. They have indeed help up well today, though. I believe in these companies and their growth stories and I am willing to ride out some market volatility with them, but if things take a truly nasty turn for the worse, I won’t hesitate to go to cash. Right now, I am just trying to build up enough of a profit buffer to give me some maneuvering room. The real problem here is going to be determining when the big correction, and it’s inevitable that there will be a big one, starts. Once it does, I will need to start exploring other ways to get good returns because it’s very difficult to get decent returns on equities during a recession. I’m certainly not afraid to short, but as I explained in a previous post, any gains from shorting are limited simply because of the math, and I want that 10% per year (minimum).

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending December 13, 2019

Market sentiment for week ending December 13, 2019

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and DOW are showing similar patterns at this time.

The market took a hard shot to the body early in the week, and looked ready to fall, but the bulls quickly rallied and drove things back up to reclaim most of the lost ground. This shows some real strength in the market, and inclines me to persist in my long term bullish bias. As for the short term, the trend is reshaping itself, and I need more data to see what form it is going to take. For this reason, I don’t really have much of an opinion on short term direction and my short term bias is therefore neutral.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hro0zrq9uc...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Not seeing many good setups going into this week, but here are some stocks I will be keeping an eye on come Monday for day trading and swing trading opportunities.
Longs: ARNC, CNC, CXO, GME, I*
Shorts: KRNT, VRNT

*-The setup for I is not based on a chart pattern, but rather on fundamentals and recent news. I am expecting a bounce in this stock at some point. Trade this stock with caution and looks for confirmation, i.e. taking out a prior bar’s high or breaking out from a regression channel, before entering.

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Sorry, but I just didn’t have time to do my update this weekend. I will try and write up something tomorrow if time permits.

~ BlueWolf

[BlueWolf]

I’m going to continue to take some time off from this thread. I’ll post an update again after the holidays.

Have a great holiday everyone!

[Louetta]

I’m going to continue to take some time off from this thread. I’ll post an update again after the holidays.

Have a great holiday everyone!

Same to you. Take care.

[Paco]

Have a wonderful Holiday and a wonderful Year.

best,

Paco

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending January 10, 2020

I’m back! Did you miss me? ... don’t answer.

Market sentiment for week ending January 10, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and DOW are showing similar patterns at this time.

Since the little mini correction in early December, the trend has readjusted itself to a wider regression channel and continued its assault on new highs. At this point there simply aren’t any indications that the market will not remain bullish. I do fear we are in for a significant correction given the power of the current trend, but until we see signs of this, I remain bullish in both my short and long term bias.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mguzil0a6u...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I am seeing a decent number of nice short setups going into the new week so maybe we will see some follow on selling early in the week. We’ll see. Here are some stocks I will be keeping an eye on come Monday for day trading and swing trading opportunities.
Longs: CXO, MAXR, MBOT, NIO
Shorts: DXC, GEO, ITCI, MOS, SBH

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[Louetta]

Medium term we might fear the spectre of Trump losing the election. Still possible, methinks, if the Democrats ever figure out ordinary people are more interested in jobs than in screwing the rich. Only 37 days to the NH primary.

Also, they say the Fed is now buying more paper than when they had an announced QE program. That can't go on forever. I don't think.

[BlueWolf]

Medium term we might fear the spectre of Trump losing the election. Still possible, methinks, if the Democrats ever figure out ordinary people are more interested in jobs than in screwing the rich. Only 37 days to the NH primary.

Also, they say the Fed is now buying more paper than when they had an announced QE program. That can't go on forever. I don't think.

No, it can’t go on forever, and our government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor. Personally, I think this is the single greatest existential threat to the USA. Unfortunately, outside of Rand Paul, I don’t see a fiscal conservative anywhere in our government. Even the CBO has warned that without serious fiscal reform, our government is running the risk of fiscal collapse over the next 15-30 years. All you have to do to see the problem is track the growth, percentage wise, of the portion of our budget spent on servicing our debt. It will soon eclipse defense spending. Of course they need to prop up the bond market. If interest rates spike up, we’re in serious trouble. The low interest rates we have been enjoying for over a decade now are enabling the irresponsible spending. Ugh. I rant, but I see this as a very serious problem that no one is addressing or covering.