Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2024

[mrmarket]

and off we go!

[jiesen]

and off we go!

and straight into last place I go! NVDA is just a beast, isn't it?

[mrmarket]

and straight into last place I go! NVDA is just a beast, isn't it?

don't tug on Superman's cape

[jiesen]

don't tug on Superman's cape

You'd think I'd have learned that lesson from shorting FB back at around 60 or so.

[Louetta]

You'd think I'd have learned that lesson from shorting FB back at around 60 or so.

To paraphrase Jim Brosnan, it's a long season.

[jiesen]

To paraphrase Jim Brosnan, it's a long season.

And I still believe that NVDA (and SMCI) will be trading below 500 by the end of it.

[Louetta]

And I still believe that NVDA (and SMCI) will be trading below 500 by the end of it.

As long as META isn't. I still have a LEAP open on it.

Seriously, there is definitely a chance the AI stocks will have some sort of reckoning. I was only 14 in 1999 so don't remember what happened really but something didn't materialize that everybody thought would. And then there were the marijuana stocks. Whatever happened there. People didn't stop getting high. Then there was the tulip craze...

[jiesen]

As long as META isn't. I still have a LEAP open on it.

Seriously, there is definitely a chance the AI stocks will have some sort of reckoning. I was only 14 in 1999 so don't remember what happened really but something didn't materialize that everybody thought would. And then there were the marijuana stocks. Whatever happened there. People didn't stop getting high. Then there was the tulip craze...

I wasn't around in the 1600s either, when tulip bulbs went up 10000% in price, but I do know what happened. Human greed is pretty constant and everybody loves to get on the bandwagon, even though history is full of examples of when those things turn over from time to time.

AI is just the latest in a long line of bubbles, it's just hard to tell ahead of time where that top is, but there surely is one. 2000 had one of the biggest bubbles of all time, and I was there for it! I very nearly called the top, too, but somehow talked myself out of a very winning short position that would have paid off over 95% if I'd just held out for it. (shorted a stock, CNXT, at 128 at about a week or two before it peaked at 132, where I chickened out and covered). Then I watched as all my equities shriveled up from 2000-2002 to an over 50% decrease... my first popped bubble. Next I saw the financial stocks and RE crash in 2008, and saw the same thing happen to my RE equity... but many of the stocks and all the RE I held over the 2000-2024 timeframe recovered and are doing just fine. I've never willingly sold anything out of fear during a crash. And I also don't look to buy anything that's in an obvious bubble (like AI currently is).

[billyjoe]

Don't feel bad, Jiesen, I got in very early with META (FB), then bailed at 28 or was it 38 ? Anyway ,I'd rather forget the whole thing.

----------------billy

[billyjoe]

....not to mention BRKB in 2012.... I think I'm going to be sick.

------------billy

[JohnHenry]

....not to mention BRKB in 2012.... I think I'm going to be sick.

------------billy

I know what you mean. I’m still sick from my many Chinese stocks - February 2022. I haven’t fully recover mentally. I’m still hung over.

[Louetta]

I wasn't around in the 1600s either, when tulip bulbs went up 10000% in price... snip ...

There's a tulip company right in my neighborhood, Messelaar Bulb, 160 County Road, Ipswich, MA. Their website shows only as http://216.92.52.89/ and the information shown on the site is from 2018 so I guess tulips are a somewhat shaky commodity.

[billyjoe]

From roughly 2001 to 2014 MSFT hovered between 30 and 36 per share. Yep, I owned that one also and got out at 34 , now 411.

--------------billy

[Louetta]

From roughly 2001 to 2014 MSFT hovered between 30 and 36 per share. Yep, I owned that one also and got out at 34 , now 411.

--------------billy

Those were the Ballmer years. He took over in Jan. 2000 and left in Feb 2014. He was a caretaker, an old roomie of Gates. Of course he became one of the world's richest from his early stock gifts when Nadella came in it and MSFT became a different company.

I have bunches of those, by the way. E.g. hesitated to buy AMD at 112 when she (the CEO, can't think of her name) announced new chips 6 weeks ago and now it's 178. And I would have bought the options too but I didn't.

[peanuts]

You guys need better crystal balls... or just some balls j/k my list of losers and woulda-coulda stocks is longer than I care to remember. Tomorrow is another day!