Announcing the bigger and better than ever, 2025 Pick of the Year (PotY) contest!

[JohnHenry]

Happy 4th of July everyone!

[BlueWolf]

Another stellar, although abbreviated, week for the markets. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P made new all time highs, and the Dow is approaching its all time high. This didn’t have any effect on our leaderboard, however, and the leaders remain the same: Jiesen’s BBAI in 1st, Louetta’s ORCL in 2nd, and Minni17’s ATAT in third. Let’s see how high we can ride this wave.

[jiesen]

Hard to say how high it will go. That’s more dependent on company fundamentals such as the technology, management team, business model, and of course, financials. Earlier this year, BBAI got hammered because of concerns over tariffs and government budget cuts. In March, they also disclosed some problems in their financial reporting and had to restate several years worth of financials. So they have their hurdles to clear. On the positive side, they appointed a new CEO in January who has connections in the Trump administration. Things seem to be looking up under his leadership, but they are still not profitable, and they’re carrying quite a bit of debt.

Recent announcements do point to some progress. This week BBAI announced that they had deployed their biometric passenger processing software at major US and international airports and this may have led to the recent gains. There was no other specific announcement that seemed to be tied to the recent price surge, so maybe investors are looking favorably on the company valuation again. Unfortunately, I have no insight into what these new investors are thinking, and the stock price has been extremely volatile, so I am extremely hesitant to say how much higher it might be heading. I just don’t think there’s enough information to assign a solid target price to the stock.

Maybe this is where technical analysis can help. On Tuesday, it broke out of its base by a significant margin. On Wednesday it gapped up and then faded to close the day lower than Tuesday’s close. I think this was the by product of antsy holders taking advantage of the surge to get out before another pullback. Then on Thursday, the stock reclaimed all of the territory it ceded on Wednesday and closed significantly higher again. On Friday, it basically based at the high. These last couple of days were very bullish, indicating new buyers were coming into the stock with a little bit of conviction, and certainly implying the stock is heading higher in the near term.

You could use a trailing stop, but because of the volatility, I don’t think I would do that if I were you. I would set an alarm for below $5.5, and if it triggers, I would quickly reassess and consider getting out if the candlestick patterns are bearish. On the other hand, if the stock continues moving up, I would keep reassessing and raising your pullback alarm, using bearish candlestick patterns to determine whether or not to stay in.

Sorry for the long winded response, and the less than precise recommendation, but I hope something in there helps.

Thanks, BW for aggregating the info on BBAI in such a nice and easy to digest post! Research these days is getting ever more difficult, what with Yahoo! being such a shell of its former self, and buggy new software slowing old computers down to a snail's pace, so getting these nuggets out of the haystack is indeed appreciated. (someone is in need of a tech refresh, or some AI bots obvs)

I was aware of the accounting issues, but see that the stock is still marching on, likely indicating that the lawyers will just take their cut from this wound and move on to their next target. Also... No, I don't expect BBAI to be profitable just yet, as they're only beginning to grow, and should land a few more large contracts first, try to strike while the iron is hot in this space... in the end it's a growth-tech play, and not an accounting business. Question is, are they the best of the best at what they do? Will they fizzle out, or explode to the next level? I'm excited to see, as my $ is on BBAI!