Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

In the category cross-eyed decisions:

... Yes, two stocks need replacement because of "stagnation": DRQ and RKT. DRQ is the first in line. It will be replaced by FTK. Actually DWSN would have been nice too, but I already picked that for my real money portfolio, and now I need a new stock there too. So I pass DWSN by. ...

I didn't need a replacement in my real money holdings after all, so I cancelled FTK and bought DWSN instead. Nice chance to resynchronize my portfolios

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: PCU, DWSN, and SNCR

This was a nerve wracking week, and my funds are showing some wear.

QHF: 27.75 (-4.4%)
IWM: 27.38 (+0.4%)
SPY: 27.20 (-0.0%)
QQQQ: 26.48 (-2.0%)
QHF-: 24.31 (-5.2%)

My baseline fund QHF- is under water compared to february, when I restarted my activities. QHF is still on top, but barely so. Actually, on Thursday, it dropped to 3rd place for a day.

No halls of fame and shame this week, as I missed a beat.

The new Top 3 Picks are PCU, DWSN, and SNCR. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, two stocks need replacement because of "stagnation": DRQ and RKT. DRQ is the first in line. It will be replaced by FTK. Actually DWSN would have been nice too, but I already picked that for my real money portfolio, and now I need a new stock there too. So I pass DWSN by.

AKH was sold for 44.79, a -12.5% loss in 3.5 months. Yuck.

Two weeks ago the basline fund got rid of PCP, WRNC and VSEA, for an avarge gain of 16.5%, or 6.0 percent average over the reported 36 sells. We buy the top 3 not held: DWSN, SNCR and FTK.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 37, avg +74.1%
Losers: 17, avg -23.6%
Total: 53, avg +43.4%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A better week, but worse for my funds. The index funds are changing position like mad, and I guess I shouldn't have said that my baseline fund had a chance to leave last place:

QHF: 29.03 (-0.7%)
IWM: 27.26 (+3.6%)
SPY: 27.20 (+0.6%)
QQQQ: 27.03 (-0.3%)
QHF-: 25.63 (-1.8%)

That is it for this week, as I really don't have the time to pick stocks. See you next week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top Three: PCP, MICC, and DECK

This was a moderately bad week, as the scores show, but still my funds are keeping up rather well:

QHF: 29.22 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 27.11 (-1.2%)
SPY: 27.03 (-0.9%)
IWM: 26.32 (-1.6%)
QHF-: 26.09 (-0.1%)

My QHF fund lengthens its lead, but again because of worse returns of the market in general. As IWM (the Russel small cap 2000) seems intent on burying itself in the deepest hole it can find, my baseline fund stands a chance to leave last place.

This weeks hall of fame: GRMN +23.5%(!), WCG +4.5% (another good week), and PCP +4.3%.
The hall of shame: DRQ -15.1%, DECK -7.1%, and PCU -7.0%

The new Top 3 Picks are PCP, MICC, and DECK. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, and we did so last week already if I had looked a bit better. Three stocks need replacement because of "stagnation": AKH, DRQ and RKT. AKH is the first in line. It will be replaced by VSEA.

In the baseline fund MEH, MT and PCU were sold for an average gain of 4.2%. The average gain over all reported sells (33 stocks) is now 5.0%. This week we take our leave of PCP, WRNC and VSEA, and we buy the top 3 not held: PCP(!), VSEA(!), and BGC.

QHF Closed Trades (no change):
Winners: 37, avg +74.1%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 53, avg +44.4%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: ESM, NAVZ, PCU

This was a truly disastrous week, as the scores show:

QHF: 29.31 (-5.1%)
QQQQ: 27.44 (-4.1%)
SPY: 27.28 (-5.5%)
IWM: 26.76 (-7.9%)
QHF-: 26.10 (-6.1%)

My fund is still the proud leader of the pack, but that is more because of worse returns of the market in general.

MICC, my newest pick, tumbled almost 20% in its first week, but it just missed the hall of shame: VOLV -19.6%, RKT -19.3%, and TSO -19.1%
The hall of fame was some compensation: DECK +6.1%, WCG +6.0%, and GEO +1.7% (but not very much).

CHAP was sold for 83.75, a 60.7% gain in 20 weeks! MICC was bought at 95.09 (ouch).

The new Top 3 Picks are ESM, NAVZ, and PCU. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, and I am glad, for this is not a market where I like to pick momentum stocks. More power for $$$Mr. Market$$$ and his CAE!

In the baseline fund GEO, LFL and CROX were sold for an average gain of 11.4%. The average gain over all reported sells (30 stocks) is now 5.1%. (Why is the fund trailing the markets then? Must be all those unrealized losses ) This week we take our leave of MEH, MT and PCU, and we buy the top 3 not held: EMS, PCU(!) and MTL.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 37, avg +74.1%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 53, avg +44.4%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: MICC, VIP and PCU

OK, I am up and running again. The score:

QHF: 30.78
IWM: 29.06
SPY: 28.86
QQQQ: 28.61
QHF-: 27.79

My fund is the proud leader of the pack, largely due to recent windfalls in CHAP, PCP and GNK.

The halls of fame and shame will be back next week.

The new Top 3 Picks are MICC, VIP and PCU. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, because we want to get rid of CHAP. We'll replace it by MICC.

As announced, QMAR, BAP and AZZ were replaced by GLDN, TEX and VOLV. The sale netted 7.0%. And behind the scenes I have already traded in my baseline fund. CPA, GMRK and SPAR were replaced by CPA(!), ANVZ and ACH. This time the sale was for a los of -6.8% average. The average gain over the reported sells (27 stocks) is now 4.4%. This week we take our leave of GEO, LFL and CROX, and we buy the top 3 not held: MICC, VIP and BAP.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 52, avg +44.1%

Regards,

Karel

[jiesen]

Go Karel!

You are HUGE!

[Karel]

I came back from vacation and I am wearing my broadest smile. Did I say my portfolio of picks like $$$Mr.Market$$$'s is one you can leave alone? Here are the numbers (at the close last Friday):

QHF: 29.84 !!! !!! !!!
IWM: 29.62
SPY: 28.76
QQQQ: 27.93
QHF-: 27.18

When I went, my fund was third and close to second place. Now it's leading the pack! Ain't I at least moderately HUGE? Now to extend the lead. BTW, the fund is way over the indices since inception (see the link in my signature, below), so that shouldn't be too difficult

Full report again next week, but this is too much fun to keep it under the lid.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

I am going on vacation and I am wearing my broadest smile. I pocketed a win with CHAP in the POTW, and my portfolio's/funds did dandy. It was a nice week for the markets generally:

IWM: 29.45 (+1.8%)
SPY: 28.77 (+1.3%)
QHF: 28.74 (+3.5%)
QQQQ: 27.29 (+1.8%)
QHF-: 26.64 (+2.2%)

What a difference one week makes! SPY is the laggard with +1.3%. My fund is really close to second place, while after the restart in februari it was firmly in last place (together with the baseline fund, which is still there). I am completely uninterested in details this week as I won't be picking nothing for no fund, so let's see how we fared since the end of februari:

QHF: +15.7%
QHF-: +7.2%
SPY: +7.0%
QQQQ: +5.8%
IWM: +4.1%

Now these are no numbers to wipe that smile from my face. The only kind of wiping these numbers do, is to make it sparkle even more. My baseline fund QHF- seems to be fulfilling my expectation that it will beat the market, and my QHF fund seems to show that my picking makes a difference. And as a portfolio with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like stocks really can be left on its own, I won't be afraid to go on vacation and leave the funds (and my real money portfolio) to themselves.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: DECK, PCP, GLDN

Whoah! what a week! My feelings of irrational exuberance last week were fully justified! The numbers speak for themselves:

IWM: 28.94 (-2.2%)
SPY: 28.39 (-2.0%)
QHF: 27.78 (-2.6%)
QQQQ: 26.82 (-1.1%)
QHF-: 26.06* (-0.8%)

Well, at least the baseline fund showed some resistance to the general malaise.

This week's hall of fame: DECK +5.9%, GEO +4.3%, and PCP -0.6%
Hall of shame: AKH -8.5%, TSO -7.1%, and CHAP -6.0%

The new Top 3 Picks are DECK, PCP, and GLDN. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, we don't. Again, look at DECK! It is the oldest holding in the fund (from April 2004), and shows up again in a Top 3! Go DECK! BTW, I bought into DECK with my own money last monday. Just so you know.

The baseline fund gained +1.8% on the sale of AKH, OMRI and EMS. The average gain over the reported sells (21 stocks) is now 5.6%. This week we take our leave of QMAR, BAP and AZZ, and we buy the top 3 not held: GLDN, TEX and VOLV.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 52, avg +44.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: DECK, SPIL, and LFL

Whoah! what a week! SPY was the great loser with a 1.5% gain! Both QHF and my baseline fund trounced the market, but especially QHF. I am really feeling irrationally exuberant here!

IWM: 29.58 (+2.7%)
SPY: 28.96 (+1.5%)
QHF: 28.52 (+4.3%)
QQQQ: 27.12 (+2.1%)
QHF-: 26.27* (+2.9%)

As an illustration of my irrational exuberance, allow me to post the current holdings of QHF:

Is that one stock under water? Only one?

This week's hall of fame: GGB +9.9%, GRMN +8.1%, and PCU +7.8%
Hall of shame: WCG +0.1%, RKT +0.8%, and GMRK +1.2%
Yes: not one stock lost. But on a soberder note: this is the second consecutive week in the hall of shame for both RKT and GMRK, so that may not really be good news. We'll see.

The new Top 3 Picks are DECK, SPIL, and LFL. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, we don't. Last week we left GRMN as a stock that needed to be replaced, but it raced past its target this week, so it bought itself at least another 3 months (if it doesn't crash and burn). But look at DECK! It is the oldest holding in the fund (from April 2004), and shows up again in a Top 3! Go DECK!

AEO went for 27.08, a disappointing loss of -9.7% in almost 8 months. PCP entered the fund at 115.80.

The baseline fund gained an amaaaazing +11.5% on the sale of VOLV, ORH and VSEA. The average gain over the reported sells (18 stocks) is now 6.3%. This week we take our leave of AKH, OMRI and EMS, and we buy the top 3 not held: DECK, SPIL and GNK.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 16, avg -24.3%
Total: 52, avg +44.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: PCP, WRNC, and PCU

SPY only enjoyed its lead for one week. QHF gained a bit, SPY and QQQQ lost, and IWM, the Russell 2000 smallcaps, ruled. The baseline fund was on a tear. My hope that the baseline fund betters the indexes is picking up again. The numbers:

IWM: 28.81 (+0.9%)
SPY: 28.52 (-0.6%)
QHF: 27.35 (+0.1%)
QQQQ: 26.56 (-0.6%)
QHF-: 25.52 (+1.2%)

This week's hall of fame: GEO +5.9%, GRMN +5.7%, and DECK +2.2%
Hall of shame: AEO -6.6%, RKT -5.1%, and GMRK -2.4%

The new Top 3 Picks are PCP, WRNC, and PCU. We do need a new stock for QHF, because 2 stocks, GRMN and AEO, failed to put down a weekly close that was 5% higher than their last high weekly close for 3 months now. AEO is the greatest offender (GRMN is actually close), so it gets replaced. As PCU from the Top 3 is already in our fund, we'll replace it by LFL in our Top 3, and after looking all three deeply into their eyes and their progress in revenue and earnings, I pick PCP as the replacement stock for AEO.

The baseline fund gained an amaaaazing +12.3% on the sale of GNK, PCU and GIGM. The average gain over the reported sells (15 stocks) is 5.2%. This week we take our leave of VOLV, ORH and VSEA, and we buy the top 3 not held: PCP, WRNC, and ... VSEA.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 51, avg +45.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: MEH, MT, PCU

Dalion, thanks for the thumbs up on WCG.

The markets were a mixed bag again, with an interesting development: SPY takes the lead from IWM. The large caps seem to rule over the small caps right now. (IWM is an ETF for the Russell 2000 smallcap index.) QHF suffered, too, with IWM and QQQQ, and the baseline fund did very badly. My hope that the baseline fund betters the indexes is rather vain, at the moment. The numbers:

SPY: 28.69 (+1.2%)
IWM: 28.54 (-0.7%)
QHF: 27.33 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 26.71 (-0.1%)
QHF-: 25.23 (-1.9%)

This week's hall of fame: GGB +6.9%, VOLV +5.6%, and DRQ +2.2%
Hall of shame: GNK -9.2%, PCU -5.7%, and GEO -2.4%

The new Top 3 Picks are MEH, MT, and PCU. We don't need a new stock for QHF yet.

The baseline fund gained a nice +2.2% on the sale of AMIE, BW and CLMT. The average gain over the three reported sells (12 stocks) is 3.5% (last weeks average was wrong). This week we take our leave of GNK, PCU and GIGM, and we buy the top 3 not held: MEH, MT, and ... PCU.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 51, avg +45.2%

Regards,

Karel

WCG is a good pick.

[Karel]

Top 3: GNK, QMAR, GEO

The markets were a mixed bag, but my QHF fund did rather well. The baseline fund did well too, so I am smiling. The numbers:

IWM: 28.74 (-0.7%)
SPY: 28.36 (-0.0%)
QHF: 27.42* (+1.1%)
QQQQ: 26.75 (+0.3%)
QHF-: 25.73* (+0.6%)

* Marketocracy tends not to hurry with splits, so I had to recalculate the NAV for the 5 for 1 VOLV split.

This week's hall of fame: WCG +9.7%, PCU +7.2%, and GNK +6.3%
Hall of shame: RKT -3.7%, GMRK (the new acquisition) -3.5%, and AKH (the previous acquisition) -3.4%

The new Top 3 Picks are GNK, QMAR, and GEO. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, we don't. In another week or two, perhaps, because we have two laggards, GRMN and AEO, that probably will not be able to extend their life in the portfolio. Two stocks, CHAP and PCU, have gained quite a bit relative to the others, so I'll shave a bit off there to protect my gains.

The baseline fund lost a disappointing 5.0% on the sale of TATTF, UCTT, and SPAR. The average gain over the three reported sells (nine stocks) is 3.5%. This week we take our leave of AMIE, BW and CLMT, and we buy the top 3 not held: GEO, LFL and CROX.

PBR left QHF for 101.54, a boring 5.0% gain in 52 weeks.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 36, avg +74.5%
Losers: 15, avg -25.2%
Total: 51, avg +45.2%

Regards,

Karel