Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

New Top 3: PCU, NOV, and GTLS

Interesting times! What happened to $$$Mr. Market$$$'s VDSI is nothing to what happened to WCG, one of the stocks in my Marketocracy fund. WCG got slaughtered to the tune of -73% after an investigation by state and federal agencies. That would account for a 4% drop in the fund, taken on its own. So let's look at the numbers:

QHF: 35.32 (+3.0%)
QHF-: 32.29 (+4.7%)
QQQQ: 30.83 (+2.8%)
SPY: 28.88 (+2.6%)
IWM: 28.64 (+3.7%)

We get a hint of the reason for the +3.0% when we look at the halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: DECK +33.5%, MTL +22.3%, VIP +12.7%
Hall of Shame: WCG -73.0%, VSEA -13.2%, DWSN +0.1%

In fact a lot of stocks did very well, so that the two heavy losers couldn't stop the triumphant progress of the fund.

The new Top 3 Picks are PCU, NOV, and GTLS. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, because we kick WCG out (good luck I don't own it with real money). I don't know what to make of the raid, so all my expectations are off. I'll replace it with NOV.

The baseline fund got rid of VDSI and MT. We can't sell SGGGY, for an average gain of 11.4%, or an 8.3% average gain over the reported 62 sells. Had we been able to get and sell SGGGY, a pink sheet stock, the numbers probably wouldn't have been any worse. This week we sell VIP, NOV and MTW, and we buy DECK, NOV(!), and VIP(!).

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 20, avg -22.4%
Total: 59, avg +43.0%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Karel,
I've been giving some thought as to what the equity curve that this generator creates actually means for you. The chart represents the equity curve over a period of 453 trades. You've only made 59 trades, about 1/8th of the way along that curve, or in figure terms, it says you've turned $100 into $200 (roughly). Your actual chart that you show since
2002 shows you've turned $10 into roughly $30. So your actual performance is better than the generator. So in 75 years, you're going to end up turning $100 into $1000.

Nice numbers.

Hello Spike,

yes, that makes sense. I think there is another factor that explains the relative "spikyness" of the Marketocracy graph, compared with the Equity Curve. The Marketocracy graph is a weekly or daily curve of the portfolio value, while the Equity Curve only considers closed trades. (Where else did we hear that again?) I think this also accounts for a smoothening effect.

Thank you for your contributions!

Karel

[Karel]

Need I say this was a bad week? No? OK, then let's go to the numbers:

QHF: 34.29 (-2.4%)
QHF-: 30.84 (-3.9%)
QQQQ: 29.98 (-2.0%)
SPY: 28.14 (-4.3%)
IWM: 27.62 (-5.6%)

Hall of fame: DWSN +4.6%, WCG +2.6%, GEO +2.5%
Hall of shame: GLF -9.4% (the stock I decided not to replace last week!), RIO -7.4%, VIP -6.4%

The new Top 3 Picks are CHNG, FTK and ACH. Two Chinese stocks! Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, because we have given GLF the benefit of the doubt, last week. Its first week on probation was rather bad (worst performer of the portfolio), so perhaps I have a chance not only to rue my sale of MICC, but also not selling GLF!

The baseline fund got rid of FLWS, QMAR, and RIO, for an average gain of 40.6% (yes, you read that right), or an 8.2% average gain over the reported 60 sells. We now sell VDSI and MT. We can't sell SGGGY, a pink sheet stock, as we could't get one single share in the course of a week. No more pink sheets! We buy CHNG, ACH, and RIO.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 20, avg -22.4%
Total: 59, avg +43.0%

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike! Yes, the curves looks nice, which must mean something, if not another! But I think they abstract very much from the Real World. Look at this curve (orange is my fund, green, blue and brown are the S&P500, Nasdaq, and DJIA, and purple is the Marketocracy Masters 100 Fund, MOFQX):



It is a lot bumpier than the worst curves from the Kelly Value indicate.

I think one of the reasons for this is that the calculation assumes totally independent outcomes, while in the Real World the losses clump together in bad periods for the market. Or something.

Anyway, thanks for devoting a thread to me!

Regards,

Karel

Karel,
I've been giving some thought as to what the equity curve that this generator creates actually means for you. The chart represents the equity curve over a period of 453 trades. You've only made 59 trades, about 1/8th of the way along that curve, or in figure terms, it says you've turned $100 into $200 (roughly). Your actual chart that you show since
2002 shows you've turned $10 into roughly $30. So your actual performance is better than the generator. So in 75 years, you're going to end up turning $100 into $1000.

Nice numbers.

[Karel]

New Top 3: VIP, MT and GTLS

A mixed week for the market (SPY jumped over the Russell 2000 small caps), but my funds did very well and put some distance between themselves and the indices:

QHF: 35.14 (+4.9%)
QHF-: 32.08 (+4.0%)
QQQQ: 30.60 (+1.3%)
SPY: 29.39 (+0.3%)
IWM: 29.27 (-0.4%)

Hall of fame: MTL (again nr. 1) +23.4%, PCU +10.5, and GRMN +9.9% (after last weeks steep drop)
Hall of shame: PCP -3.7%, DECK -3.6%, and DWSN -3.1%

The new Top 3 Picks are VIP, MT and GTLS. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Perhaps, because GLF is marked "stalling". Now in retrospect I am not happy to have sold MICC at a bottom. Wise remarks that it wasn't necessarily a bad stock are no consolation. If I look again at GLF, I see only things to like, apart from the net result of 13 weeks of price action. So I will keep GLF for another 3 months. But I have it tagged for disappointing behavior.

The baseline fund got rid of DWSN, SNCR and FTK, for an average gain of 43.0% (yes, you read that right), or a 6.5% average gain over the reported 57 sells. We now sell FLWS, QMAR, and RIO, and buy GGB, BVN, and MDR.

QHF Closed Trades (no changes):
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 20, avg -22.4%
Total: 59, avg +43.0%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: PCU, DWSN, and SNCR

A bit late, but here is the report. It was a nice week for the market and my fund QHF is up, but still last in line this week. Almost a relief! IWM had an excellent week and passed SPY:

QHF: 33.49 (+1.7%)
QHF-: 30.85 (+4.1%)
QQQQ: 30.20 (+2.8%)
IWM: 29.38 (+5.1%)
SPY: 29.30 (+2.2%)

Hall of fame: MTL +13.9%, GGB +8.2%, and FWLT +7.6%
Hall of shame: GRMN -31.1%, VSEA -9.4%, and GEO -3.6%

The new Top 3 Picks are PCU, DWSN, and AL. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, we don't, but GLF is getting close.

The baseline fund got rid of PCP, VSEA and BGC, for an average gain of 11.7%, or a 4.4% average gain over the reported 54 sells. We now sell DWSN, SNCR and FTK, and buy DWSN(!), AL and FTK(!).

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 20, avg -22.4%
Total: 59, avg +43.0%

Regards,

Karel
_________

[Karel]

New Top 3: VIP, GTLS and MBT

I have been away last weekend so this is a report over two weeks. The markets didn't do bad at all, but just look at my funds. Two weeks ago I was glad that QHF-, my baseline fund, had left last place. Just look now (percentages over 2 weeks):

QHF: 32.94 (+8.4%; +32.6% since the end of February)
QHF-: 29.58 (+6.3%; +19.0% since etc.)
QQQQ: 29.39 (+4.4%; +14.0%)
SPY: 28.68 (+2.5%; +6.7%)
IWM: 27.95 (+2.5%; -1.2%)

Hall of fame, again over 2 weeks: RIO +24.5%, GNK +18.8%, and DECK +15.8% (my oldest pick in the current bunch)
Hall of shame: GEO -4.4%, DWSN -2.1%, and VSEA +1.9%

The new Top 3 Picks are VIP, GTLS and MBT. Do we need a new stock for QHF? No, although GLF comes close to my mental stop of -20% after its last high weekly close. I don't want to be hasty selling these stocks, and MICC is a case in point. I sold it at 72.18, now it closed the week at 83.90. FWLT, its replacement, gained a much more modest 3.4%. No problem, just following my plan, and then such things happen.

As I said MICC was sold for 72.18, a -24.1% loss in almost 2 months, or -83% annualized. Yikes! FWLT entered the portfolio at 126.99.

The baseline fund got rid of MICC, VIP, and BAP, for an average loss of -6.5%, or a 4.0% average gain over the reported 51 sells. We now sell PCP, VSEA, and BGC and buy the top 3 not held: FARO, NOK and GTLS.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 20, avg -22.4%
Total: 59, avg +43.0%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: PCU, DWSN and FTK

A good week for the markets and my funds. Did I dare to say that my baseline seemed ready to leave last place? I did and it did. QHF-, my baseline fund, is outperforming the markets, as I hoped in February (see also the first March post). The fact that it only now starts to climb in the rankings, is due to the fact that it started out with a handicap, because I had neglected my funds for a time:

QHF: 30.39 (+1.5%)
QQQQ: 28.14 (+2.1%)
SPY: 27.99 (+1.9%)
QHF-: 27.83 (+3.4%)
IWM: 27.27 (0.6%)

Hall of fame: VIP +8.9% (last weeks pick), MTL +7.6% (the last pick but one), and RIO +7.5% (the last pick but two )
Hall of shame: MICC -8.8% (second successive week as top shamer), GNK -7.2%, and VSEA -3.8%

The new Top 3 Picks are PCU, DWSN and FTK. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, I fear another stock needs replacement, and this time it is MICC. Right after I bought MICC it tumbled off a cliff. What to do? Lots of people still think MICC is a really good stock, and I tend to believe them. The problem is, I am fundamentally challenged, so when I am on my own, I lay more stress on momentum (as I understand it: stock goes up=good). So exit MICC and enter FWLT.

VOLV was sold for 16.07, a -8.5 loss in almost 5 months, or -21% annualized. Not nice. VIP entered the portfolio at 24.78.

The baseline fund got rid of MICC, VIP, and BAP, for an average loss of -6.8%, or a 4.7% average gain over the reported 48 sells. We now sell EMS, PCU and MTL and buy the top 3 not held: PCU(!), MTL(!), and FWLT.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 19, avg -22.3%
Total: 58, avg +44.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Nice curve, Karel! Congrats.

Thanks Spike! Yes, the curves looks nice, which must mean something, if not another! But I think they abstract very much from the Real World. Look at this curve (orange is my fund, green, blue and brown are the S&P500, Nasdaq, and DJIA, and purple is the Marketocracy Masters 100 Fund, MOFQX):



It is a lot bumpier than the worst curves from the Kelly Value indicate.

I think one of the reasons for this is that the calculation assumes totally independent outcomes, while in the Real World the losses clump together in bad periods for the market. Or something.

Anyway, thanks for devoting a thread to me!

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 18, avg -23.1%
Total: 57, avg +45.1%

Regards,
Karel

Nice curve, Karel! Congrats.

[Karel]

New Top 3: PCU, VIP, and RIO

A lackluster week for the markets and my baseline fund; but QHF managed to eke out a profit. And, do I dare to say it? My baseline fund seems ready to leave last place:

QHF: 29.93 (+0.3%)
QQQQ: 27.57 (-1.3%)
SPY: 27.46 (-1.0%)
IWM: 27.12 (-1.5%)
QHF-: 26.91 (-0.8%)

Hall of fame: DWSN +10.2%, GNK +5.9%, and GRMN +3.4%
Hall of shame: MICC -5.4%, VOLV -4.6%, and DECK -3.0% (VOLV made this list for the second week in succession)

The new Top 3 Picks are PCU, VIP, and RIO. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, another stock needs replacement, this time because of lackluster performance: VOLV. VOLV started out well, but has now dropped into negative territory. It will be replaced by VIP.

TSO was sold for 49.35 (averaged with an earlier "top off" sale), a 237% gain, split adjusted, in 40 months, or 57% annualized. Now that is how I like it! MTL entered the portfolio at 43.52.

The baseline fund got rid of CPA, NAVZ and ACH, for an average loss of -5.0%, or 5.5% average over the reported 45 sells. We now sell MICC, VIP, and BAP and buy the top 3 not held: VIP(!), NOV, and MTW. Last week I tried to buy SGGGY for the baseline portfolio, but couldn't, so that slot will remain empty. That will teach me go after 5 letter tickers, as VLKAY wasn't even available.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 39, avg +76.5%
Losers: 18, avg -23.1%
Total: 57, avg +45.1%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New top 3: VDSI, DWSN, and MTL

The week was a mixed bag for the markets, with QQQQ leapfrogging SPY and IWM, and for my funds. My baseline fund is on a roll:

QHF: 29.85 (-0.9%)
QQQQ: 27.94 (+1.4%)
SPY: 27.74 (-0.5%)
IWM: 27.52 (-1.0%)
QHF-: 27.14 (+2.2%)

Hall of fame: RIO +3.3%, a nice start for our new pick, GGB 3,2%, and PCU 2.7% (the other two were famers last week too)
Hall of shame: GLF -6.4%, PCP -6.1%, and VOLV -4.4%. (The first two were shamers last week too)

The new Top 3 Picks are VDSI, DWSN, and MTL. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, another stock needs replacement because of "stagnation": TSO. TSO is a rather big winner in the portfolio (over 200% gain since August 2004), but not since last June. It will be replaced by MTL.

RKT was sold for 29.85, a -14.6% loss in 5 months. Let's bury that one. RIO entered the portfolio at 47.75 (and leads the hall of fame in its first week).

The baseline fund got rid of GLDN, TEX and VOLV, for an average gain of 6.0%, or 6.2% average over the reported 42 sells. We now sell CPA, NAVZ and ACH and buy the top 3 not held: VDSI, SGGGY, and MT (and not VLKAY, as mentioned previously, as that ticker isn't available in Marketocracy).

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 38, avg +72.3%
Losers: 18, avg -23.1%
Total: 55, avg +41.6%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: PCP, FLWS, and QMAR

My funds show decided symptoms of bipolarity. Just watch this after last week:

QHF: 30.12 (+8.5%)
SPY: 27.88 (+2.5%)
IWM: 27.81 (+1.6%)
QQQQ: 27.56 (+4.1%)
QHF-: 26.55 (+9.2%)

I really would have liked a greener green for my baseline fund; suddenly it is back on track. Since the reactivation in Februari it is almost equal to SPY (which gains second place this week), the best of the three index ETFs I watch as proxies for the market (over that period). And my expectation (read: hope) was that it would beat the markets. Am I happy? Maybe. The halls of fame and shame show why:

Hall of fame: VSEA 21,8%, GGB 14,2%, and PCU 13,1% (and two more double-digit gainers)
Hall of shame: GEO +0.7%, PCP +5.5%, and GLF +5.9%. No stocks negative this week? No sir!

You know what, gains like this make me a bit wary. It looks too good to last. But I am not complaining!

The new Top 3 Picks are PCP, FLWS, and QMAR. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, one stock needs replacement because of "stagnation": RKT. As PCP is already held, I have to dig a bit deeper, and it will be replaced by RIO, well-known by the regulars of this board.

DRQ was sold for 43.68, a 3.7% gain in just over a year. Let's forget that one. DWSN entered the portfolio at 64.09 (and gained almost 9% in its first week).

The baseline fund got rid of DECK, SPIL and GNK, for an avarge gain of 8.7%, or 6.2% average over the reported 39 sells. BTW: this just amaaazing! We now sell GLDN, TEX and VOLV and buy the top 3 not held: FLWS, QMAR, and RIO.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 38, avg +72.3%
Losers: 17, avg -23.6%
Total: 54, avg +42.7%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Karel,
Baseball fans in our area think very highly of your fellow countryman, Jair Jurrjens, only 21 years of age, with quite a future.

Thank you for mentioning it; he seems to be making a remarkable start. Baseball has almost no exposure here, so I was completely unaware of the fact.

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
Baseball fans in our area think very highly of your fellow countryman, Jair Jurrjens, only 21 years of age, with quite a future.

-----------billyjoe