Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Spike,

Good to see you back again! What's your take on BXG and MFLX?

thanks!

Thanks
BXG: Beautiful bullish chart. The smart entry was the red arrow, channel long.
For now, I like it long from 'c' in the chart, maybe entry in the next 4 weeks?? Last week's candle is bearish, so maybe a return to 15 for support. That could maybe be a good place for 'c' to finish. Good spot volume by price as well. Good target is low 30's upper channel on the weekly.

[spikefader]

MFLX: Another nice chart. I'd chase the black channel turn up that's about to happen and target an upper channel.

[dmk112]

Thanks Spike, where can I find some information on channels, so I can understand a bit more of what you're talking about...hehe

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike, where can I find some information on channels, so I can understand a bit more of what you're talking about...hehe

Just Googled for ya. Don't get too bogged down with the whys and wherefores, 'cuz I don't think it as important as realizing that channels are simply a 'tool' to assist in creating a plan and managing entries and exits. Sensible risk management and unemotional targetting and exiting is the key to success. There is no Holy Grail indicator out there. The Holy Grail is mastering ones self. Entries and exits are the ONLY thing we CAN control, so control them well!!

Raff Regression Channels:

http://www.paritech.com/paritech-site/education/technical/indicators/trend/raff.asp

"Raff Regression Channels contain price movement, with the bottom channel line providing support and the top channel line providing resistance. Prices may extend outside of the channel for a short period of time. However, if prices remain outside the channel for a long period of time, a reversal in trend may be imminent."

http://www.borsanaliz.com/eng/raffreg.htm

"Raff Regression Channels show the range prices can be expected to deviate from a Linear Regression trend line"

http://www.amibroker.com/guide/t_channels.html

http://www.linnsoft.com/tour/techind/linReg.htm

[dmk112]

Thanks Spike, looked at the sources but they don't have general rules on what to use them for. Are there general rules on how to use them (e.g. when RSI is 70 stock is overbought and you should sell). And what do you mean by 'chase a channel turnup'. Thanks!

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike, looked at the sources but they don't have general rules on what to use them for. Are there general rules on how to use them (e.g. when RSI is 70 stock is overbought and you should sell). And what do you mean by 'chase a channel turnup'. Thanks!

The general rule is that the lower channel acts as support, and the upper channel acts as resistance. The mid line is the trend.
Smart money buys at support and sells at resistance, right? Well, just do that. Buy the lower channel touch of a rising trend, and then target an upper channel. Or short an upper channel of a falling trend. Watch for channel turn ups and turn downs as early warning signs of strength or weakness.
The way I use reg channels is probably very different than others would. But in that last chart, look at the black channel. It's currently a downward channel from a recent high. Well, if that channel turns up it's suggesting that there is strength in the move that has overcome a bearish channel, thus perhaps a reason to consider an entry to chase the momo (assuming you like other things about the chart, such as the wave formations, volume by price, any bull flags, pennants, wedges, double bottoms, head and shoulders with neckline breaks etc. etc. )
Spend some time reading this entire thread and you'll get more of an idea of how I use channels. I don't use them alone, but rather with many things, such as the patterns I mentioned. I basically use a daily chart to look for channel touches, then if the chart speaks to me as far as a confirming pattern, I'll look for an intraday entry, based on intraday patterns or FIB support. There are plenty of examples in the thread that I think will help you. Throw any questions at me and I'll happily share my thoughts.

[tokyojoeskid]

snda

Spike what do you think about Snda, its been on a huge run.
thanks
Tjk

[lee_mre]

spikefader-

What is the time period you use for the linear regression when forming channels?

thanks

[Runner]

Spike- I was wondering if you might be able to direct me to a site that has a good explanation of the Elliot waves. I figure this is something that may require more study.

thaX

[spikefader]

MCRI: channel short suggests caution to longs.

[spikefader]

Spike what do you think about Snda, its been on a huge run.
thanks
Tjk

Yes, it's had a nice run. Here's how I would have traded it.
As of today, you could chase the little channel turn up there, with entry at current prices. Stop at 37.50 or 33.50 would be wise.

[spikefader]

spikefader-

What is the time period you use for the linear regression when forming channels?

thanks

I use channels on daily charts, obviously, and time period for a channel depends on where the recent highs and lows are. I'll draw a channel in many places to get an idea of the bigger picture and smaller picture. The larger the channel, the more significant it is.

[spikefader]

Spike- I was wondering if you might be able to direct me to a site that has a good explanation of the Elliot waves. I figure this is something that may require more study.

thaX

Good thinking! Yes, EW is a very interesting study. It is very complicated too http://www.elliottwave.com/ is a good site with lots of info. If I were you, I'd find a good board to watch how others trade EW. I like this silicon investor board. Some good EW discussion in there. The active posters there are the ones to ask for book or site references. The way I use wave theory is very very simplictic and not purist at all. One day I may try to learn EW in every detail.

[kingofthehill]

ok Spike how about a read on ... ELN

[spikefader]

ok Spike how about a read on ... ELN

Sure. Sorry to longs but I'm still short 28.08 as posted here. Stop at 28.86. Target at this stage is 21.40. Risking 3% for 25% gain. That red circled gap wasn't significant volume, so it's likely that it's not a true runaway.