Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • Spike having done more study I see my errors. Wave 4 can not overlap the top of wave 1 and so my chart depicts improper labeling. I’ll learn this but it will take some time.

    This is an extract from the lesson:
    In the stock market, the most commonly extended wave is wave 3. This fact is of particular importance to real time wave interpretation when considered in conjunction with two of the rules of impulse waves: that wave 3 is never the shortest actionary wave, and that wave 4 may not overlap wave 1. To clarify, let us assume two situations involving an improper middle wave, as illustrated in Figures 1-6 and 1-7.

    In Figure 1-6, wave 4 overlaps the top of wave 1. In Figure 1-7, wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 and shorter than wave 5. According to the rules, neither is an acceptable labeling. Once the apparent wave 3 is proved unacceptable, it must be relabeled in some way that is acceptable. In fact, it is almost always to be labeled as shown in Figure 1-8, implying an extended wave (3) in the making. Do not hesitate to get into the habit of labeling the early stages of a third wave extension. The exercise will prove highly rewarding, as you will understand from the discussion under Wave Personality in Lesson 14. Figure 1-8 is perhaps the single most useful guide to real time impulse wave counting in this course

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    • Comment

      • spikefader
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 7175

        Originally posted by IamOrion
        Spike,
        Any thoughts on MVL.
        I'm staring at a weekly chart and it looks like it's ready to explode up for 10 points doesn't it!? Friday's close saw a channel turn up that you would have been safe trading the open today, but if you can get it at 19.20 would be good.

        Comment

        • spikefader
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 7175

          Originally posted by RL
          Spike do you see any reversal on syna
          Turn up is a chance soon, since on a weekly I see a 5 wave move up, and abc correction, and then a high volume big 1st wave and we're now in the 2nd. It's just a matter of how big 2 wants to be...as low as 25?? That's a guess. 26.56 is the 50% retrace of the new weekly wave 1, so maybe there?? Lower channel is 28.00, so maybe there?? 28.31 is the gap support, so maybe there?? Or the gap fill is 27.65.

          The thing you'll like to hear the most is that today was a channel long day from Aug 16 low on the daily. And intraday today was inverted SHS and neckline break at about 20.38, and a bullish 60 min intraday candle, and it's close enough to gap support to have a good reason to buy it now.

          Hope that's helpful.

          Comment

          • spikefader
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 7175

            Originally posted by IamOrion
            Cup and Handle formation, kinda confused by the channels I drew. Any thoughts.
            Yes, looks like it's got potential. But look at the weekly and there's lots of potential cups with handles that failed to do anything. Channels aren't really screaming anything to me yet. With this one, I would definately wait for channel long entry on the weekly.

            Comment

            • IIC
              Senior Member
              • Nov 2003
              • 14938

              Originally posted by ParkTwain
              Some of you must use some kind of automatic charting and trend-plotting software. I'm interested in a particular scenario. Let's say I have decided for my own reasons that I want to find any stock that is in an uptrend going back 6 months' worth of trading sessions. Is there a software package that can determine this set of stocks, then also tell me which of these plotted uptrends has the steepest upward slope over that 6 month period?

              thanks, park
              I just ran a quick scan...here are 26 that are up 200% or more over the past 6 months...but I didn't look at the charts to see the trend...some may have gone way up and are now in a downtrend???

              CNC
              MSO
              TZOO
              TRGL
              TLWT
              SMSI
              SMIT
              RIV
              PACT
              NWEC
              NTMD
              MTMC
              MDF
              MBAY
              LNG
              LMIA
              ISON
              IIIN
              GPIC
              DCAI
              BOOM
              ANTP
              AKS
              AIRT
              AIC
              ABIX
              "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

              Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

              Follow Me On Twitter

              Comment

              • IIC
                Senior Member
                • Nov 2003
                • 14938

                Originally posted by scifos
                Hi Spike, I'm looking into COGT, looks like it just had a channel turndown, and moved into the lower red channel. Could be looking for 38.2% or 50% retrace from its high @ 37.37 I am thinking this stock is a great long term hold, and trying to decide on an entry point, should I wait for a lower channel touch (and 38.2% fib retracement) to buy @ 30.30 or wait for a 50% retrace at 28.10?

                Also curious if I'm right on that channel turndown, as this is the first time I've tried to find one.
                Scifos...I'm interested to know if you are looking at this one from a non-technical standpoint also??? I have been watching it too...but my interests are more fundamental on it...THX...IIC
                "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

                Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

                Follow Me On Twitter

                Comment

                • spikefader
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 7175

                  Originally posted by Runner
                  Spike having done more study I see my errors. Wave 4 can not overlap the top of wave 1 and so my chart depicts improper labeling.
                  Good info, and you're right. That is one rule. I try to stick to it, but sometimes I flat out break it - not a purist. In my book there's always an exception to the rule. The last compx chart is an example. My 4th in the 1st overlaps the smaller 1st. Does it mean the whole count is invalid? "They "say yes and it's an improper count, and maybe if I study it more I'll believe them, but for now I say because it's an index it's maybe an exception to the rule, and it the absence of full understanding of the theory I'll combine it with the medley of things I've found works for me, and look to trade what I see and keep it simple. If I'm wrong, I'm not hurt since I use tight stops.

                  And anyone is absolutely welcome to point out where I could have benefited from applying a rule I broke. I'm always open to constructive criticism.

                  Comment

                  • spikefader
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 7175

                    Quadmap Update:
                    Nothing new. Vector closed bullish. A spring being pushed down....rebound eventually??

                    Comment

                    • RL
                      Senior Member
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 1215

                      Spike thanks much have a great holiday
                      Ray Long

                      Comment


                      • Greetings Spike,
                        sorry to keep bugging you about ZICA,but its recently crossed $5.00,and the P+F chart shows $8.00 target.

                        My employer has been holding since the days of 40,back in the late 90s.In your opinion is this worht chasing?

                        cordially Tom

                        Comment

                        • grebnet
                          Moderated
                          • Oct 2003
                          • 389

                          Stec

                          Is this a falling knife or setting up for a base.. I want to buy just looking for an entry.

                          p.s. bought at 4.47 today
                          Last edited by grebnet; 12-21-2004, 05:02 PM. Reason: add note

                          Comment

                          • scifos
                            Senior Member
                            • Jan 2004
                            • 790

                            Originally posted by IIC
                            Scifos...I'm interested to know if you are looking at this one from a non-technical standpoint also??? I have been watching it too...but my interests are more fundamental on it...THX...IIC
                            IIC, my interest is almost purely fundamental, I'm am just looking trying to use technicals to pinpoint an entry, since I think this thing will do great long haul I am not worried if I miss a few days while I wait for a good price. If president bush's plan for boarder security goes through (has it already? I'm not sure) then COGT will be the ones supplying not only the fingerprinting hardware, but the database and software to manage the data as well, the only company that does both the hardware and software. This is a huge plus for them, and being in a booming security industry makes them a winner for me.
                            Buy Low
                            Sell High
                            STAY FROSTY!

                            Comment

                            • spikefader
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 7175

                              Originally posted by Thomrich
                              Greetings Spike,
                              sorry to keep bugging you about ZICA,but its recently crossed $5.00,and the P+F chart shows $8.00 target.

                              My employer has been holding since the days of 40,back in the late 90s.In your opinion is this worht chasing?

                              cordially Tom
                              Hi Tomrich. Sorry for the delay. ZICA: On the weekly, long-term significant breakout on this bullish push up. Also showing another upper channel touch from yesterday, so a reason to take profits. The daily, it seems likely to be in a 3 of 5 wave. The gap there may be a runaway with the volume there. Buy gap support would be a good play.

                              Comment

                              • spikefader
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 7175

                                Originally posted by grebnet
                                Is this a falling knife or setting up for a base.. I want to buy just looking for an entry.

                                p.s. bought at 4.47 today
                                Good gap support entry you got there! If it gaps down under the gap, potential for island reversal, so that's something to be cautious of....IF it happens. It may not.

                                Frankly, I've seen better long charts. Looks in limbo to me. The gap up was on volume, so if that fails it could be ominous. It just hasn't done much after the gap on volume, which mumbles trouble to me. Good luck with it.

                                Comment

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