Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Thnx runner. IB still showing no SIRI shares to short. But that 6.34 entry yesterday nailed it. Today's early morning gap down then struggle to overcome either the pivot or the gap is bad boding for it I reckon. Double intraday top is in and bears are lickin' their lips.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Drudge says XMSR and SIRI are in informal merger talks.

Street doesn't necessarly like that it seems.

[spikefader]

Apparently the CEO of SIRI Mel Karmazin has no knowledge of the XMSR thing. It's just a rumor he said, and he dismissed it during the conference.

[grebnet]

Mvk

Good Morning...... Can you give me your thoughts on MVK my cost is $ 30.32 it is acting very strong .. ???? Sell now or let it ride...............

[spikefader]

Good Morning...... Can you give me your thoughts on MVK my cost is $ 30.32 it is acting very strong .. ???? Sell now or let it ride...............

Oh, definately let it ride. Target a channel and sit back and wait. Looks like a nice bigger 5th wave is about to be handed on a silver platter. The top of 1 was 21.90, the top of 3 was 32.15 (see 5 smaller waves therein with an abc correction that ended 3 weeks ago and has been bought since), and the top of 5 may turn out to be 40ish. That would be a nice 30+% for you.

[grebnet]

thanks

Thanks... That was my hunch...Just looking for a pat on the back

Do you trade in your account purely on technical factors or do you look for good stocks then trade on technicals???? does that make sense??

[spikefader]

I'll trade most anything as long as the chart looks good. Sure, I might feel better if the fundies match it, but that's just emotion.......and I learned a long time ago that raw emotion can be a terrible timer of the market. Fact is that price moves contrary to fundies and it's all about timing. This is why I can short a thing like ELN when King is showing us how good the fundies are. I can see a potential weakness such as a gap, and at the right time, fade the crowd during strength, and can get rewarded if I nail a good entry and there is a sudden change of fundies.

I encourage everyone to remember that even though fundies might be good today doesn't mean they're gonna be good tomorrow, and vice versa, a weak fundy stock might sudden get great news that sends it up. Noone knows what the future holds, even those analysts that know everything there is to know about a company and what it's likely to do in the immediate future.

Fundamental bias can really be a hinderance rather than an edge, especially if you are simply buying on fundies and not in combination with some technical validation. Bottom line is it's ALWAYS about timing. Ya gotta attempt to 'time' every single entry you make. Time them in a way that gives you an edge over the sharks who will feed and fade bullish moves on great fundies. Even the hottest bull stock has to retrace at some point, and those retracements are often very very tradeable, especially on the short side, since stocks actually more often than not fall faster than they rise. Look at any chart you like and you'll notice that the drops are more volatile. What takes 8 weeks to meander and rise can take 3 weeks to fully retrace with hardly any meandering down. Why is this? Emotion? Fear? Caution? Maybe, probably, yes. Whatever the reason, short side can produce faster profit and that's hard to say no to, even in a bull market.

Best to all.

[Runner]

Hello Spike, Do I see a cup pattern that has formed on SIRI over the last 2 days? I looking @ 5 min. chart

[spikefader]

Hello Spike, Do I see a cup pattern that has formed on SIRI over the last 2 days? I looking @ 5 min. chart

Better still, there's an inverted SHS on the daily that targets 7.80. Neckline break late in the day today. And if we get a gap up, that would make a bullish island reversal. Shorts watch out! There's also a channel long day yesterday. My bias is bullish for SIRI!!!!!!!
EDIT: actually, it targets 7.60ish.

[Runner]

Nice chart work Spike, I was very surprised with how well SIRI recovered from the earnings mess. I’ve been only focusing on intraday charts and forgot to look at the 1 min. on it. I’ve been looking 5-60 minute charts in this market environment, if this makes any sense? I posted a chart of SIRI somewhere not sure if it was this forum or not, but I was thinking 6.10-6.15 might have served as a PP. I see you have plotted the same thing…. I have noticed the more times a stock tests resistance over time the more potential Bullish moves may come, is this a true statement?

[df21084]

BPT sold

Thanks Spike and New-born. I appreciate your input. I bought 100 shares today. We'll see how it goes.

Regards.

I sold BPT today @ $53.50/share. OPEC meets over the weekend, so I thought it best to run like a scalded dog.

Inclusive of the dividend, that's a 9.2% increase in 2 weeks. I'll see what happens over the weekend, and maybe I'll jump back in. I'm looking to buy AY.UN on Monday.

Regards.

[New-born baby]

Congrats to you!

DFXXXXX,

Always glad to hear of another "hugite" success! Thanks for sharing. And best wishes with AY.UN. (I'd wait until Monday if I were you). Check my post in "Newborn Baby's Cans" about this topic "Do You want to make 17.51+%?." It may be helpful with AY.UN.

[spikefader]

Nice chart work Spike, I was very surprised with how well SIRI recovered from the earnings mess. I’ve been only focusing on intraday charts and forgot to look at the 1 min. on it. I’ve been looking 5-60 minute charts in this market environment, if this makes any sense? I posted a chart of SIRI somewhere not sure if it was this forum or not, but I was thinking 6.10-6.15 might have served as a PP. I see you have plotted the same thing…. I have noticed the more times a stock tests resistance over time the more potential Bullish moves may come, is this a true statement?

Thnx. Not sure if it's true or not. The way I see it, resistance is resistance until it isn't. I've seen resistance withstand a whole day at a certain ask price...obviously a stock with relatively low volume and someone with a lot of shares selling at that ask price and someone bidding for a lot of shares at the bid....and the price flatlines. What usually happens in my experience is that eventually price breaks and moves quickly from there - either up or down. But usually on a larger volume stock, when resistance is tested a handful of times and the resistance doesn't break, the price falls away from it to test support. Likewise, if support is being tested and price bounces a handful of times, it gives the impression that it's good support and price bounces. The more it tests it, and the longer it holds, the more one would argue the strength of it. It's only when bidding at support runs out that price will drop. So the only true statement one can draw from the whole support/resistance concept is that support is support until it isn't, and resistance is resistance until it isn't. Pretty lame statement and arguably unhelpful, but at least it's 100% true

[spikefader]

I sold BPT today @ $53.50/share....

Congrats on a nice trade. About 8% or so I'm guessing from your entry on 1/7/05. Better than a kick up the pants Pullback to a channel or 50.00 is a great long entry imho.

[New-born baby]

Bpt

Spike,

Look--now that DFxxxxxx is out of it, I can hope it doesn't hit $55, right?