Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Re: Selling rules

Spike,
How do you determine your exit point? I know you always use stops, but how you decide when to take profit? Do you completely rely on your charts, or use some percentage rules like Mr. Market? Also, how do you determine the channel turn? How long does it take to make the turn?
Really appreciate your help.
Yaoyao

Let 'em run as long as possible and exit on a reverse signal or some other significant level, such as 5 wave completion or a heavy point of resistance I see such as an upper channel line. I don't use percentage targets. Having said that, sometimes I will close a trade at intraday resistence and then reenter at a support level, especially after an unusually fast move that is likely to retrace some.

As to the channel turn, look at the examples in the thread and you'll get the idea of where I take the channels from. I click and drag the channel. If it's a channel from a low and when I drag it, it turns down, that's the bearish turn. If it's a channel from a high point and it turns up, that's the bullish channel turn. Get it? As to how long it takes to make the turn, it'll be up one day, and then all of a sudden, due to action on one day it might turn down. You'll see channels move from being upward, to levelling off, to turning over. It only takes 1 day for a flat channel to turn down. Know what I mean?

[yaoyao]

Thanks, Spike. It seems like the channel trends also depend on the time frame you use. Some good stocks will drop a lot for a day but shoot up the next day and forward. That would be channel trend changes involved.

What do you think about CDE now? SHS might become invalid if the price keeps dropping.[/quote][/list]

[Websman]

Greetings Spike,

Have you noticed the great earnings report on DHB. It's getting a lot of attention, but I've held off so far. Everyone thought it was going straight up after the earnings announcement, but my newly trained Vulcan eye knew better. It actually dropped. Now it's climbing again, with some volume. I happen to think it will tank, once more, before a run up happens.
Spike, I'm getting better at chart reading but I still could use your expert advice....Tell me...am I right about this stock, or...am I wrong?

[spikefader]

Thanks, Spike. It seems like the channel trends also depend on the time frame you use. Some good stocks will drop a lot for a day but shoot up the next day and forward. That would be channel trend changes involved.
What do you think about CDE now? SHS might become invalid if the price keeps dropping.

The channels will depend on where you take it from, but should be pretty similar between time frames. The shorter the time frame, the closer the view, so it might just look different. It's good to sometimes zoom out to longer time frames to get an idea of the bigger picture.

CDE - frustrating. My last two trades of it haven't given me that perfect entry I like, but I expect a good number of failed setups - it's part of the game. I really took the trade off that 20 day chart I posted. The closing hourly candle above the bollinger band caught my interest - an indication that prices have a potential to go higher. Add to that the daily bounce off that support area, and I had enough reason to take the entry as valid. But it's not reacted well, and could be looking to fill more volume on the daily at lower prices. In hindsight, it would have been more prudent to wait for a channel entry day on the daily. This chart shows a channel turn down today, so I'll exit at intraday resistence tomorrow and would recommend you do the same. There will be better entries for it.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CDE_May_13_zoom.jpg

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,

Have you noticed the great earnings report on DHB. It's getting a lot of attention, but I've held off so far. Everyone thought it was going straight up after the earnings announcement, but my newly trained Vulcan eye knew better. It actually dropped. Now it's climbing again, with some volume. I happen to think it will tank, once more, before a run up happens.
Spike, I'm getting better at chart reading but I still could use your expert advice....Tell me...am I right about this stock, or...am I wrong?

Red channel turn up has the long zone in light blue. Interesting action in this stock - and good example of a technical bounce. I have long bias, but haggle over price and look for 8.50ish WITH an intraday reason to enter.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB_May_13.jpg

[nkjoe]

dhb

Spike
I am still new to reading charts and even newer to some of your terminology. Could you explain the red channel and long zone for me. It's hard to tell if you like this stock for further advances beyond $10 or not. Sorry for the ignorance, still learning

[nkjoe]

dhb

Spike
I am still new to reading charts and even newer to some of your terminology. Could you explain the red channel and long zone for me. It's hard to tell if you like this stock for further advances beyond $10 or not. Sorry for the ignorance, still learning

[spikefader]

Re: dhb

Spike
I am still new to reading charts and even newer to some of your terminology. Could you explain the red channel and long zone for me. It's hard to tell if you like this stock for further advances beyond $10 or not. Sorry for the ignorance, still learning

Sure.
I drew a channel from the candle with a high of 10.65. Because it's from a high, the channel would normally start by angling downwards, indicating a bearish channel, which it did for the next 2 days. But on the 3rd day (2 days ago) the channel turned up. That action is a bullish signal in my books, which is why I'm saying 'long zone'. By that, I mean that I am bullish on the stock, with interest it entering if it comes back to the lower light blue channel. Supporting reasons for bullishness are the good bounce off volume by price support, satisfaction of the SHS target, and penetration of volume by price resistence just under 10.00. So yes, I see higher prices for it at the moment. BUT - be cautious with it, since you've got a SHS / triple top on the daily. I will wait for return to the light blue channel and ALSO look at an intraday pattern to enter (such as inverted SHS or double bottom). Hope that clarifies it for you.

[yaoyao]

CDE

Spike,

I sold CDE at 4.27 before a meeting (a little too soon, it seems to become support now). PM stocks are doing pretty well today. I also hold wht. What's your opinion on that?

Thanks.

Yaoyao

[spikefader]

Re: CDE

Spike,

I sold CDE at 4.27 before a meeting (a little too soon, it seems to become support now). PM stocks are doing pretty well today. I also hold wht. What's your opinion on that?

Thanks.

Yaoyao

Patience grasshopper. I'm waiting or R1 to be tested, which is where I've got my sell order.

[spikefader]

Re: CDE

Spike,
I also hold wht. What's your opinion on that?
Thanks.
Yaoyao

Channels say bullish, I recommend you hold that with stop around 2.43ish.

[spikefader]

Gonna fade the spike

Short ELN 21.95 - stop over HOD

[spikefader]

Cover for a dime's worth of pain. Next.

[yaoyao]

Thanks, Spike. I'm still new to the game. It's a good learning experience for me. The problem is that I have a daily job, and couldnt sit in front of a computer all the time. Intraday play is almost impossible for me. What i'm doing now is to study charts after work, and determine what my next step is. Is there any better strategy? Thanks.

[spikefader]

ELN looking for another entry short

but the bullflag is something to realize can be very powerful. Could well get a bullish channel break, in which case, I'm back on the Field of Dreams Team team