Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Thanks, Spike. I'm still new to the game. It's a good learning experience for me. The problem is that I have a daily job, and couldnt sit in front of a computer all the time. Intraday play is almost impossible for me. What i'm doing now is to study charts after work, and determine what my next step is. Is there any better strategy? Thanks.

Nope, with a day job that's what you need to do - make your plan and stick with it. You just miss out on the opportunity for the absolutely best entries and therefore, the least risk. You just need to use wider stops is all. Have your plan, and give it some reasonable wiggle room and see what the market gives you.

[spikefader]

[Websman]

Alright, OFG is getting hammered still. I keep thinking it'll bottom out, but I'm not so sure anymore. In fact, I'm thinking that it's headed back to around $22. At least I didn't take a large position, but I do have a small loss and I'm thinking of bailing out Monday.

Any Thoughts Spike or anyone else? I'm totally lost on this one.

[spikefader]

Alright, OFG is getting hammered still. I keep thinking it'll bottom out, but I'm not so sure anymore. In fact, I'm thinking that it's headed back to around $22. At least I didn't take a large position, but I do have a small loss and I'm thinking of bailing out Monday.

Any Thoughts Spike or anyone else? I'm totally lost on this one.

I'm real sorry for your pain Webs. If you've got no reason to stay in, then get out. Like that old classic song goes,
"You've got to know when to hold 'em,
know when to fold 'em,
know when to walk away,
and know when to run".

The time to run was when it failed at 30.00 and then this setup failed http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/...long_entry.jpg
Now had you taken your pain/medicine at that logical point, then you'd have the funds to throw into good setups, instead of hoping for a recovery. Hope kills traders.
Peace man.

[Websman]

Thanks Spike!

Your analysis is appreciated once again.
I should have listened the first time, but I only bought 65 shares, so I'll be OK and I did learn a very important lesson.
I really was using OFG as a test trade and I failed the test miserably.

Oh well, life goes on. I think I'll take the boat out this weekend and catch a few Red Snapper and Grouper, That always clears my mind.

[New-born baby]

ELN

Spike

Yeah, I sold 2k ELN yesterday for 19.37 @ share. Seems like a bargain, doesn't it? Incredibly, I sat in front of the screen this morning and could not pull the trigger. I put in a couple of limit orders that they smoked past before I could get 'em filled. It must have been some kind of institutional buyer who couldn't read a chart driving the market higher . . . or maybe he's reading this thread and decided he'd show us a thing or two.

In any case, I think you should have held your short. It'll be back down enough to cover Monday morning. But I'm not betting it is going to stay down there. Somebody with an institutional-sized wallet must have decided that the drugs are going to be FDA approved.

I'm going to try to collect my nerve and buy on the dip again Monday. How about you?

[Websman]

Re: ELN

Spike

Yeah, I sold 2k ELN yesterday for 19.37 @ share. Seems like a bargain, doesn't it?
I'm going to try to collect my nerve and buy on the dip again Monday. How about you?

Hmm... sounds like you and I are having the same kind of luck New-born. I did the same thing with SGMS a week ago.

[yaoyao]

DRAX again

Spike,

What do you think about DRAX now. It looks like a SHS bottom to me. I owned this stock for several months. It was a big lesson to me. I let 50% profit get away and sold it for a small loss. I still like the stock, and would like to enter it at a good price. Thanks.

Yaoyao

[spikefader]

Re: DRAX again

Spike,

What do you think about DRAX now. It looks like a SHS bottom to me. I owned this stock for several months. It was a big lesson to me. I let 50% profit get away and sold it for a small loss. I still like the stock, and would like to enter it at a good price. Thanks.

Yaoyao

My earlier chart is http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/...ading/DRAX.jpg
which was waiting for that lower channel entry. There was a second long entry on it since that channel entry too, but would have been closed. The first channel entry would still have you long.
Yes, there appears to be the formation of a SHS. I'd maybe consider a long entry if the neckline breaks, but there are better setups out there.

[spikefader]

Re: ELN

Spike

Yeah, I sold 2k ELN yesterday for 19.37 @ share. Seems like a bargain, doesn't it? Incredibly, I sat in front of the screen this morning and could not pull the trigger. I put in a couple of limit orders that they smoked past before I could get 'em filled. It must have been some kind of institutional buyer who couldn't read a chart driving the market higher . . . or maybe he's reading this thread and decided he'd show us a thing or two.

In any case, I think you should have held your short. It'll be back down enough to cover Monday morning. But I'm not betting it is going to stay down there. Somebody with an institutional-sized wallet must have decided that the drugs are going to be FDA approved.

I'm going to try to collect my nerve and buy on the dip again Monday. How about you?

So are you saying you're short from 19.37 and didn't cover? Or that you were long and closed it there? If it's the first, we need to talk!
Actually, the suggestion that it was an institutional buyer who couldn't read a chart, well, as I pointed out over at http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/...d6addea46add06 there was a valid long setup, based on the inverted SHS, and intraday action was classic bullflag action. So maybe they can read a chart.
Anyway, I'll consider another short entry based on Monday's action. There might be a strong run up in the morning, which breaks out of my channel and gives a stage 1 long signal. There might be a double top or SHS before that happens, in which case I'll short it. Either way, trade 'em as you see 'em, and look for perfect entries

[New-born baby]

Spike

I was long on ELN at 19.37 and closed it out Thursday morning. I was a little nervous about how that conference call might turn out, and thought I'd not take the risk of sour grapes ruining my day.

What is the best chart reading textbook that you might recommend to us neophytes out there? I'd like to submit some information for your consideration, but I'd first want to be up to snuff before I offer a suggestion.

Do you consider the Directional Movement Index when you think about buying a stock?

[spikefader]

Spike

I was long on ELN at 19.37 and closed it out Thursday morning. I was a little nervous about how that conference call might turn out, and thought I'd not take the risk of sour grapes ruining my day.

What is the best chart reading textbook that you might recommend to us neophytes out there? I'd like to submit some information for your consideration, but I'd first want to be up to snuff before I offer a suggestion.

Do you consider the Directional Movement Index when you think about buying a stock?

Whew!

People have asked for a reference to a good chart textbook several times in the thread, but unfortunately I can't recommend one to you. All the stuff I've learnt has been through on-line research. Google is your friend

No, I don't ever look at DMI index, but I know about it and it is an interesting indicator.

[spikefader]

BEL bullish

[yaoyao]

SWIR

Spike,

Could you look at SWIR's chart? Does it look like a double bottom to you? I'm still trying to learn the charts.

Thanks

Yaoyao

[yaoyao]

Spike,

Just want to say that I really really appreciate your time and effort to answer each of my questions. I feel so lucky to find this site and this thread. It makes my learning much faster and more efficient. Thanks.

Ying