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There was a 24 million block sold today on XOM, hence the large volume...it looks like the smart money is getting out...
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Yup it sure is pretty ugly. Aren't all double tops?! I mean so many of them lead to very volatile downslides. Red channel support at gas station No.1 - look for an expanding weekly channel there; support may come in and I expect it to. Because I don't think OIL has topped yet. I think it's just gonna search for the next channel $50 to $59. The daily SHS target of 54 is probably a good place. But for XOM, I think 50-44 area is very likely.Originally posted by New-born baby
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Boy, that's a tough one. I would definately not pick MSFT and XOM. I think there are better charts out there. But you're talking a lot of years, and a week's a long time for me haha.Originally posted by tokyojoeskid
Will you be able to switch out if you make a good profit, and rotate positions, or are you saying you will just buy and hold it for 35 years?
Why don't you consider doing this: Buy shares in something with great money flow on the weekly and upside potential that's had a retrace lately like SNAK; great weekly chart. P&F target of 15.25 which would be 250% profit. And for the other position, buy out of the money leap put options for a terribly weak chart (I've posted several in the last couple of months) where the downside potential is very high. This way you are somewhat hedged - with your strategy being to rotate at a really great time in a year or whatever.
Your portfolio of only 2 picks will have more chance of one pick making good profit, which you can take in a year or so and dollar cost average into the other position that may have dropped in value but is in a good area to average into.
Effectively you're trying to preserve your capital with the hedge while adopting a strategy where you use some simple TA to rotate during times where your small portfolio will benefit.
See, if you take 2 long positions now, if you're wrong and the market dives then you're just a bagholder. By taking a long/short combo you will almost certainly profit from at least one of them, and perhaps even both of them if the market smiles on you. Plus it will be more fun for you than just buy and hold and gamble.
Anyway, if you are going to just buy 2 longs and hold, then at least make it a chart that is really shining, not just a company that you know will be around in 35 years.
Good luck.Comment
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thanks
Thanks Spike,
The only reason I wouldn't hold a Snak type stock for this long term account is because I have been burned before on stocks under $10 no matter the technical or fundamental strengths. I do understand the hedging postion but still probably wouldn't be interested in this particular one.
As far as being able to rotate to different securities, I have no idea. I was just told to pick two and go from there. It is being held by my grandmother so I have no idea when I could make adjustments. Which makes this entire process a bit more difficult.
My strategy right now for this particular account is trying to find fundamentally strong companies with strong current growth, a positive long term outlook and staying power. The technicals will just help me with my entry as I can do it whenever I wish, it is currently just sitting in cash.
Thanks so much for your insight, I am just trying to find a list of stocks that are at least above a $15 share price. As far as short term fluctuations, they won't concern me as much as in my personal account, based on the time horizon
thanks,
TJkComment
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I should mind my own business!
TokyoJoe,Originally posted by tokyojoeskid
You didn't ask me, so please skip this post if my big nose and big mouth offend you. I am not trying to do that at all. I would like to throw out a couple of thoughts that might help you.
1. I completely agree with Spike. Avoid XOM and MSFT and DELL. These are old America, and they are not up and coming companies. 35 years is an incredibly long time in the investment world. An example: Ben Franklin had part of his estate placed in a trust when he died. He specified which companies he wanted his money invested in, and gave instructions that no changes be made for 50 years. What happened? All those companies he invested in were gone by the time 50 years passed. If you read an investing book from the 1940's, the great companies whose charts they show you are almost all extinct. Anaconda--selling for $350 a share in 1929 ($350 was a significant amount of change in those days); Studebaker, Hudson, and almost every example listed--they simply do not exist anymore.
Old companies die because of complacency. Look at GM and Ford. 35 years ago they were top companies. GM was a $100 stock in 1970 dollars, each quarter producing billion dollar bonanzas. Ford was an $80 stock. Now they are dying a slow death because they are completely out of touch with reality. Eastman Kodak, AT&T--powerhouses 35 years ago--and anything on the Dow (including XOM), probabably won't be around in 35 more years.
2. So what do I suggest? If it were me, and only two stocks were available, I would put my money in Paramount Energy Trust (PMT.UN on the Toronto Exchange). Pays a $.24 Canadian per month distribution on a $19 Canadian share price. They are a well run company, and you'd collect dividends off the sale of natural gas, a commodity in great demand. The other choice: Viking Energy Trust (VKR.UN on the Toronto Exchange). Pays a $.12 divy per month on a $9 stock. Its a 52% natural gas/48% oil trust.
Lastly, you just have to have the freedom to take profits on occasion, because 'things in motion change' as Runner says.
Best to you.Last edited by New-born baby; 10-19-2005, 01:52 PM.Comment
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OK, no problem dude. Good luck with whatever you go with. NB is actually offering some good advice there on something with a divy too.Originally posted by tokyojoeskid
How about this for some fun: You make your short list of 10 stocks above $15 that you deem to be fundamentally sound (hopefully with a good divy) and we'll invite all TAers to list their 2 favorites out of those 10, with a quick paragraph or 1 chart if they have time on why long-term it will fly. Then at least you will have a selection based on good TA. XOM and MSFT do not have good TA. MSFT could just as easy go to 8 as it could to 44 and you'd be much better shorting XOM than taking it long.
And as to being burnt with stocks under $10 no matter TA/FA strengths, it all comes down to which TA/FA you were listening to
But that's fair enough that you want to have a $15 cut off. But I do think that you're letting fear and past failure influence your selection criteria, and eliminating a lot of great potential stocks. But hey, it's your money so forgive my arrogance
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Thanks guys,
When I come up with a list I will def post it. I am assuming I will be able to make trades in this account somewhat, but it will probably be limited. Communication with grandparents sometimes takes a while. As far as rewarding myself immediately after profits, I wouldn't be able to do so until I reach the age of 59 1/2 without a penalty from the wonderful IRS.
NBB thanks for those Ng divy plays. I will def take them into consideration.
TjkComment
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Greetings,
A shout out to NBB,sorry for jumping in on your thread Spike.
HTE is selling at a blue light special IMO,chart looks aweful,but with a fat distribution,Im all over it.Average price is 28ish,and will buy more if it fills the gap.
As a US citizen,do you also pay 15% on distributions on TSX trades?I keep procrastinating and am still with Scottrade,I need to call them and find out if they are offered.
Just as a reference
ERF .39C = $43
PWI .30C= $29
HTE .35C= $27.50?whats up with that?
Right now a share to unit swap is on from an aquired property,which IMO is causing the selling.Im holding for a pps in the mid 30s,and collect 10% while waiting.
cordially TomComment
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Yup
Tom,Originally posted by Thomrich
Greetings, Bro. Yes, you have to pay the 15% divy tax even on IB. Tax is taken out automatically and painlessly. I will tell you that if you switch to IB, you will never go back to Scottrade, and you will regret all the time you wasted over there. Scottrade offers Toronto exchange transactions, but the fee is $27 per trade! And slow! It may take 15 minutes to get the job done. Compare with IB where the fee is only .02 per share up to 500, and .01 per share above 500 on the TSX. And INSTANT transactions. Spike will tell you I am giving you good advice here. By the way, you'll be amazed that when you hit the buy or sell button, the transaction will be completed before you can remove your finger! That's a direct access broker for you!
Now, about the Cans:
HTE--$.35 monthly Canadian divy on $28US stock. That's a yearly $3.57 US divy on a $28 stock or 12.75%. What's wrong with that? Toyko, are you listening? Nothing wrong with HTE except the type of investors who buy these oil trusts. Tom, lots of fear out there today. Oil is down to $61, and everybody is panicking! The Cans can keep a level distribution at $38 oil! But Can investors are VERY conservative, and any news, save a distribution increase, is bad news for them. I would not hesitate to add much more HTE.
Wonderful day to buy VKR or PMT. Incredible bargains out there.Comment
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OK folks, I'm noticing that imageshack has not 'held' my recent charts probably becuz my folder is so huge with all these glossy charts If there's a post where I reference stuff in the chart, and you can't see it and want it, let me know the post number and I'll edit it. I just added the COMPX chart I posted the other day in response to dmk's question on it.
Any bears without heads out there today? My Dow swing is up 100 points in 2 hours and looks certain to get to 10600 resistance now.
where's that monkey that dances to music!
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Spike, the dow is still below the 50 and the 200 dma...all today was a short squeeze nothing else...just a better reason to add to your shorts
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lol your neckwound obviously not too deep there! Off with his head! lolOriginally posted by dmk112Spike, the dow is still below the 50 and the 200 dma...all today was a short squeeze nothing else...just a better reason to add to your shorts
Seriously though, a short squeeze is when a large number of short sellers try to cover their positions at the same time and in a panic. That's not what I see in the price action from the beige book at 1pm. It was merely impressive buying by the clever people You'll join in eventually haha.
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