Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • spikefader
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 7175


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    • spikefader
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 7175

      LEXR teehee

      Comment

      • billyjoe
        Senior Member
        • Nov 2003
        • 9014

        Spike,
        IRIS did ok today in a crummy market. Earnings are a few days away. Do I take my profits now or gamble on a good earnings report? I've been meaning to ask you , can't the charts be thrown out the window the day of earnings report ? If the chart is great but earnings are bad the stock will go down. If the earnings are great and the chart is bad , the stock will probably rally , right? Thanks


        billyjoe

        Comment

        • spikefader
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 7175

          Originally posted by billyjoe
          Spike,
          IRIS did ok today in a crummy market. Earnings are a few days away. Do I take my profits now or gamble on a good earnings report? I've been meaning to ask you , can't the charts be thrown out the window the day of earnings report ? If the chart is great but earnings are bad the stock will go down. If the earnings are great and the chart is bad , the stock will probably rally , right? Thanks


          billyjoe
          billyjoe, IRIS is a great chart. It's bullish, it's booming, it's sensational. I'd be holding it and let it ride through earnings.

          Just watch it and consider taking profits if it hits an upper weekly or daily channel, but you should probably just wait until a big ugly daily pattern forms for it, and let the market reward your patience. Perhaps look to exit at the top of a R shoulder or double top on the daily or weekly.

          Yes, and news can ALWAYS rock a chart and bust any bias that it shows. That's the beauty of a market. There are no sure bets, and no sure losers. News, including earnings news, can always have a huge impact on price despite the chart today. That's why I like tight stops

          Good luck with it!

          Comment


          • Greetings ,

            Spike could you give your opinion of LEXRs ah action?

            It dropped to 6.90 and rallied back to 7.90.My short order did not get filled at 7.93 during regular hours.May look to do it again tomorrow.

            Earnings are claimed to be good,but a selloff of near 15% and then return to near closing price has me perplexed.

            cordially Tom

            Comment

            • dmk112
              Senior Member
              • Nov 2004
              • 1759

              Spike, you're bearish now?? Time frame?

              Man this market is kickin' my a$$!! Not the time for swing trades....up one day reversal the next... According to that we should get a big move up tomorrow so go long on the YM's tonite LOL
              http://twitter.com/DMK112

              Comment

              • New-born baby
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 6095

                You asked for it--you got it!

                Spike,
                You asked for it--you've got it! FEAR INDEX!
                "Just in time for Halloween!"



                Karel,
                How's this?
                pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                Comment

                • dmk112
                  Senior Member
                  • Nov 2004
                  • 1759

                  spike, I'm looking at the dow with the 1 min chart for the last 5 days. On monday there was a gap up and never filled according to the 1 min, but when I look at the daily there's no gap?? What is going on??
                  http://twitter.com/DMK112

                  Comment

                  • spikefader
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 7175

                    Thanks NB for that fear chart. You're a legend!

                    Yep dmk, a bear now. Vector bearish close. Channel shorts on SPX COMPX INDU. Lower weekly channel on INDU is 9200 and rising. Price now falling from heavy vol by price on the weekly. We could see 9850 pretty quickly now if enough fear kicks in. That fear chart NB posted is a showing the potential for serious down side.

                    There are times to be worried about longs, and this is one of those times. It's just 'potential' and may not happen; bull might step up. But until it does I'm bearish. Yes, high fear in that chart can be a good buying opp, but you have to time catching falling knives very well. Remember, there is no siren that sounds before a black Monday. It is a totally surprising thing. There might be whispers - and that is the current stuff I'm seeing now. They are whispers. Extreme caution is warranted here. I'll be a bull soon enough, but for now, I'm fastening my seatbelts for the potential ride down. If Dow 10156 fails the potential just explodes and it'll be either 9900 9700 or 9200 pretty quickly.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by dmk112
                      Spike, you're bearish now?? Time frame?

                      Man this market is kickin' my a$$!! Not the time for swing trades....up one day reversal the next... According to that we should get a big move up tomorrow so go long on the YM's tonite LOL
                      This is why I'm parked on the sidelines. Zero day trades today...

                      Comment

                      • New-born baby
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 6095

                        Originally posted by spikefader
                        Thanks NB for that fear chart. You're a legend!

                        Yep dmk, a bear now. Vector bearish close. Channel shorts on SPX COMPX INDU. Lower weekly channel on INDU is 9200 and rising. Price now falling from heavy vol by price on the weekly. We could see 9850 pretty quickly now if enough fear kicks in. That fear chart NB posted is a showing the potential for serious down side.

                        There are times to be worried about longs, and this is one of those times. It's just 'potential' and may not happen; bull might step up. But until it does I'm bearish. Yes, high fear in that chart can be a good buying opp, but you have to time catching falling knives very well. Remember, there is no siren that sounds before a black Monday. It is a totally surprising thing. There might be whispers - and that is the current stuff I'm seeing now. They are whispers. Extreme caution is warranted here. I'll be a bull soon enough, but for now, I'm fastening my seatbelts for the potential ride down. If Dow 10156 fails the potential just explodes and it'll be either 9900 9700 or 9200 pretty quickly.
                        In my opinion, these are words of wisdom. I am all on the sidelines save for my Cans. Those divys will pay me 15% while the dust settles with the DOW and the NAZ. That NAZ chart I posted on "Market Watch!" That thing strikes fear in my heart. Nothing but shorts on the NAZ side.
                        pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                        Comment


                        • NB, notice the direction of my magic arrow!! haha

                          Comment


                          • Greetings,

                            To the NBB and all,

                            I think a trade short maybe the way to make a buck for a while,but also look at PBT.
                            Its raising distributions along with NG prices,and next months announcement should be by my calculations .17,on a trust trading at 16.

                            The edge with this over "cans" is that no currency exchange involved,and more important no 15% Canadian withholding tax.

                            Right now yield is 10%which is high for a US trust,I expect a PPS of 20+ by mid winter.

                            Ill post a chart tomorrow when Im on a faster connection.

                            cordially Tom

                            Comment

                            • New-born baby
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 6095

                              Originally posted by Thomrich
                              Greetings,

                              To the NBB and all,

                              I think a trade short maybe the way to make a buck for a while,but also look at PBT.
                              Its raising distributions along with NG prices,and next months announcement should be by my calculations .17,on a trust trading at 16.

                              The edge with this over "cans" is that no currency exchange involved,and more important no 15% Canadian withholding tax.

                              Right now yield is 10%which is high for a US trust,I expect a PPS of 20+ by mid winter.

                              Ill post a chart tomorrow when Im on a faster connection.

                              cordially Tom
                              Tom,
                              Just one point of correction, if I may . . .

                              The 15% withholding tax is AMERICAN as well as Canadian. In other words, PBT withholds the 15% divy tax, too.

                              Your other points are valid: no exchange rate to hassle with, unless of course, you are with IB and you don't have to hassle with it there. That's right.

                              Tom, you are missing the boat with Scottrade. IB is the way to go.

                              Best to ya!
                              pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                              Comment

                              • spikefader
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 7175

                                Thomrich,
                                Good one. PBT bullish. I'd feel better if that recent daily minor channel short wasn't there (16.86) but the weekly looks great.


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