Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • spikefader
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 7175

    Originally posted by skeew
    How long does it take to be able to trade like a corpse? Money flowing into ones account is very exciting. How do you turn off the greed and the fear, the supply and the demand? With every tick up the heart beats faster, every tick down and your palms began to sweet. Two minutes after you have exited your position the stock starts to move in the direction that you wanted it to go before you sold. You watch the screen and think, if only I had gotten up to go to the toilet. These are the emotions that make this the hardest game on earth.
    skeew, awesome question. How long does it take. It depends on a few things, like how often you trade, how long you've been trading, what size you trade, your foundations and belief in your results, your own level of tolerance, your belief in risk and money management, and how arrogant and stubborn and delusional you are.

    The simple answer is that it will happen when you are absolutely convinced that you MUST, than anything else is just a joy ride out of control and undisciplined.

    If you really WANT to trade like a corpse, then it must mean that you KNOW that trading on emotion and reacting with emotion ain't the way to go.

    Break it all down; everything. Break down and analyse how you feel about losers and winners, and contemplate WHY you feel that way. Think about how irrational and illogical emotion is, and why trying to 'get out even' or thinking 'it surely must come back so I can get out' is dangerous. Sometimes it just WON'T do what you hope for. And trading like a corpse with low r/r and the numbers on your side is THE ONLY way to really fight this dangerous aspect of trading and risk speculation. One must HANDLE risk. One must LIMIT the downside. One must ACT in the face of emotion, and REACT despite it. Emotion is the constant enemy, and the more you fight it the more experienced you become. This is why 'looking back' with regret and feeling sick that you did the wrong thing, even though you KNOW you did the right thing, is so unhelpful and destructive to discipline. That is what I was talking about with tokyo. That one must NOT look back with ANY regret, and one must JUST DO IT, move on, and have an unwavering faith in the whole r/r argument. If you don't BELIEVE in stops and targets, and their undeniable power, and wholesome goodness, then you will never trade like a corpse. For trading without emotion very much embodies the principles of CONTROL; controlling everything, limiting everything, and being happy with those limits. Limit downside, limit upside, limit reason to ENTER, limit reason to exit, limit how you express yourself, the words you choose to type, the emotion you put behind those words, limit the way you joke about your trades, limit the way you analyse it, everything. It's got to get into your bones. You cannot allow yourself to think ANYTHING negative about your discipline, save for when you break a rule and let emotion guide you. You will be a master when you CAN and DO master. Like everything in life, the more you do it, and the wiser you get, the 'doing' of things become second nature and habitual.

    Comment

    • spikefader
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 7175

      Originally posted by spikefader
      Out YM even. Then shorted again at 10506 off system short.
      Tightening stop to 20 points risk now.

      Comment

      • Lyehopper
        Senior Member
        • Jan 2004
        • 3678

        Where's New Born Spike?

        What's happened to ol New Born Baby lately? Expected some good posts from him during this rally.... Maybe he already got "raptured" and missed the run....
        BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

        Comment

        • spikefader
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 7175

          Originally posted by Lyehopper
          What's happened to ol New Born Baby lately? Expected some good posts from him during this rally.... Maybe he already got "raptured" and missed the run....
          heh naaah, can't be the rapture....not nearly enough crashing church buses and missing person reports! Surely you wouldn't be here Lye! He must be down at the bank counting his cash from those BMHC calls he sold hehe We miss you NB! Post some charting brilliance for us will ya.

          Comment

          • spikefader
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 7175

            Originally posted by Lyehopper
            Posted a (Lyehopper special) (ENER short) chart on Doug's Thread this morning.... I'm gunnin for 28.5 or there abouts.
            Cool. ENER short is lookin good thus far today, good luck! Watch for the channel long area around 33.20.

            And while I think of it Lye I saw a reference to a divergence in your ENER chart. May I offer some stuff to read on divergences? Divgs are very powerful, for sure. There are different kinds, and different methods to use them for entries, but check the below chart out, and head over the the link for the "Divergence Cheat Sheet". Pretty cool stuff, and that guy knows how to trade. You'll pick up some good stuff reading over there.




            Comment

            • spikefader
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 7175

              Originally posted by spikefader
              Tightening stop to 20 points risk now.
              And tagged out by an aimless dazed bull that fell over after it got me. Stalking short again.

              Comment

              • spikefader
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 7175

                Short YM 10513 system signal.

                Comment

                • spikefader
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 7175

                  Originally posted by spikefader
                  Short YM 10513 system signal.
                  -3 on this one. System just starting to show some bullishness now..... Daily Vector bullish... hmmm....

                  Comment

                  • spikefader
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 7175

                    Big fat buy signal near the close. Bought Dec 40 QQQQ calls for $0.90 in anticipation of breakout of the broadening pattern there. Will average into this if need be.

                    Comment


                    • Greetings Spike,

                      When you have time,would you consider a look at CKCM?Its 1 yr chart has more gaps in it,than my bad tootha's.Does it look tradable?

                      Also I used your PSAR,MFI model on LEXR for an entry at 7.80,So far it works great.
                      I have it set at 20days with 60 min intervals.

                      Also want to short OSIP on monday if it gives a nice RR.

                      cordially Tom

                      Comment


                      • Greetings again Spike,

                        My employer has gone all in on ZICA,Im leary of giving him my opinion,yet I dont want him to take a bad hit.Im seeing lower lows and lower highs,is there any ray of hope?

                        Earnings come out this week,I want to give the best advice if asked,so I ask for the best advice.

                        TIA
                        cordially Tom

                        Comment

                        • Lyehopper
                          Senior Member
                          • Jan 2004
                          • 3678

                          Thanks Spike.

                          Originally posted by spikefader
                          Cool. ENER short is lookin good thus far today, good luck! Watch for the channel long area around 33.20.

                          And while I think of it Lye I saw a reference to a divergence in your ENER chart. May I offer some stuff to read on divergences? Divgs are very powerful, for sure. There are different kinds, and different methods to use them for entries, but check the below chart out, and head over the the link for the "Divergence Cheat Sheet". Pretty cool stuff, and that guy knows how to trade. You'll pick up some good stuff reading over there.



                          http://www.trading-naked.com/Divergence.htm
                          I appreciate your constructive critique of my Charts. I never really even knew (exactly) what Divergence was.lol

                          Hey Spike you even taught me to use the (Prt Sc) button on my keyboard dude!hehehe.... You taught me to post to Image shack, You taught me to keep score on the POTW in 2 minutes VS two hours!.... YOU ARE HUGE!!!! $$$Mr. Market$$$'s 19"" Biceps are like shoestring french fries when compared to yours!

                          This is some really super info on Divergences man . YOU ARE THE BEST SPIKEFADER! I am truely becoming a better stock trader because of hanging out here! Well.... between you and Skiracer. That dude has sent me some good info too! Well Actually I learned a few things from reading Runner too.... And New Born and Webs and IIC and Jiesen.... I'm tearing up again here dude! AND THANKS TO
                          $$$Mr. Market$$$ for making all this possible.... oh yeah and that cat Karel, you know, the guy who resizes the charts so you can't really read them and keeps the spammers away.... he's important too!
                          BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                          Comment

                          • Websman
                            Senior Member
                            • Apr 2004
                            • 5545

                            Originally posted by Lyehopper
                            .... YOU ARE HUGE!!!! $$$Mr. Market$$$'s 19"" Biceps are like shoestring french fries when compared to yours!
                            BLASPHEMY!!!

                            Get down upon your knees and beg for forgiveness!

                            Comment

                            • dmk112
                              Senior Member
                              • Nov 2004
                              • 1759

                              Originally posted by spikefader
                              Big fat buy signal near the close. Bought Dec 40 QQQQ calls for $0.90 in anticipation of breakout of the broadening pattern there. Will average into this if need be.

                              Spike, rising wedge is a BEARISH pattern. I'm sure you know this already, so why are you anticipating a breakout?
                              http://twitter.com/DMK112

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by dmk112
                                Spike, rising wedge is a BEARISH pattern. I'm sure you know this already, so why are you anticipating a breakout?
                                Greetings,

                                As the least qualified to comment on the QQQQ,I feel compelled to spew some opinion.

                                On a 1 year chart it looks to me like a possble break from an ascending triangle,which would target 50ish if Im correct.Otherwise its the beginning of a bull trap above 40.

                                NBB care to take a stab?

                                cordially Tom

                                Comment

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