Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[skiracer]

Spike,
Interesting idea you have there and commendable for the time an energy you're putting into it. What's not my cup of tea doesn't necessarily mean I don't think it will provide a great base for making more out of your opportunities. Anyway I always love this type of exercise an I would never pass up on any idea that held water if I saw that it would enhance the percentages for making more money. Good show and BELIEVE me when I say that I hope it proves to be successful because I would be the first to acknowledge that once proven.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Did you edit MIG or did I imagine seeing it ?

billyjoe

Nope, it was in there. I liked the weekly and daily charts; still do actually, save for the potential tweezer top the last 2 days. That has me a little cautious, but if it takes that out, then I'm all bull for it and would green light a clever entry like abc or channel long.

But I scratched it off the Creme list cuz the daily average volume is only 80,000.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Interesting idea you have there and commendable for the time an energy you're putting into it. What's not my cup of tea doesn't necessarily mean I don't think it will provide a great base for making more out of your opportunities. Anyway I always love this type of exercise an I would never pass up on any idea that held water if I saw that it would enhance the percentages for making more money. Good show and BELIEVE me when I say that I hope it proves to be successful because I would be the first to acknowledge that once proven.

Thanks ski!

[Runner]

Spike,
Interesting idea you have there and commendable for the time an energy you're putting into it. What's not my cup of tea doesn't necessarily mean I don't think it will provide a great base for making more out of your opportunities. Anyway I always love this type of exercise an I would never pass up on any idea that held water if I saw that it would enhance the percentages for making more money. Good show and BELIEVE me when I say that I hope it proves to be successful because I would be the first to acknowledge that once proven.

Wow another interesting concept. What is happening here on Mr. M’s forum? I smell a lot of creativity. I for one will be following this and think the results will be staggering. How are you going to factor in the general market conditions with the open positions? I just posted something about micro managing on Ley’s thread and it seems you’ve come up with a exit plan and will let the cards fall as they may..

[Lyehopper]

I like the SCOTC idea Spike!

Funny that you and I were devising a scheme within minutes of each other tonight ain't it.... Hey.... I like how "you feel it in your bones" that there's a system yet to be divised. I got that same feeling Spike! LOL....

Only I want to utilize the "human element" more in my system, the competitive spirit that drives the players to make a great pick in the POTW. That desire to win.... That's what makes great companies btw, Great people! Hopefully it'll make a great portfollio model.

Competition brings out the true winners.... This element is something that you can't nail down with a computor program, because it changes from week to week.... This "element" supplies my portfolio with a crop of FRESH, hot picks in the right groups and on the right side of the market's bias, (short and long) and I get these fresh picks to reveiw WEEKLY!!!!.... You never know at what angle a trader approaches a pick.... and (over time) we'll scientifically filter out the POTW cream of the crop? How else can you take advantage of 15 different experienced traders dd and reaserch and compile it all in one thread?.... Only by having 15 top, competitive traders submit their VERY BEST picks (long or short) every week in that POTW thread and keep the right records and score data.

We can still "mix up" the POTW from time-to-time and have a day trading week or just totally change the rules for fun. It's important that we have some fun while we figure this thing out, right?

Best success on your Idea too.... Brilliant btw!

[spikefader]

...what is happening here on Mr. M’s forum? I smell a lot of creativity.

Yep, of late this place has been a veritable hub of ingenuity!

I for one will be following this and think the results will be staggering. How are you going to factor in the general market conditions with the open positions? I just posted something about micro managing on Ley’s thread and it seems you’ve come up with a exit plan and will let the cards fall as they may..

Hopefully general market conditions won't affect the Creme! and they will do their joyride with spunk, vitality and vigor. Many times I've seen strong stocks hold up, seemingly on helium, while there's blood in the streets. If this really is the Creme it should do that, and when market weakness abates and short-term strength returns, the Creme will resume the momo with rousing, amazing, astounding, bewildering, breathtaking, extraordinary, impressive, marvelous, miraculous, spectacular, staggering, startling, striking, stunning, stupefying, stupendous, wonderful, wondrous, awe-inspiring bullishness.

IIC has reminded us that there are always standouts that will momo up in the face of broader market weakness, and I agree. BUT, assuming the Creme is affected by it, then that'll filter out the weak ones and divert the funds into the strong ones that much quicker!

The more I think about this system the more I like the principle behind it. I like how funds will being directed to the strongest of the pack, and how it will be 'survival of the fittest', as coined by Herbert Spencer back in 1851, or Charles Darwin in 1859 used the phrase 'natural selection'.

This is a simple elimination of the weakest exercise, leveraging strength, pyramiding the strong stock candidates, taking the best of the best, ultimately ending with a single leveraged winner that's proven itself, and that's the opportunity right there......the last winner full loaded after absorbing the funds from those eliminated, with a chance to become a super performer, and then when the stars align and the Lord grants favor and gives the nod ........ BOOM! Superstar is born hehe I'm being melodramatic again!

But say it does happen, the results really do have the potential to be, as you say Runner, staggering! Staggering because that last-stock-standing, Crème de la Crème, Superstock will be fully loaded with all the portfolio allocation for the entire duration of it's bullish drive. Maybe it can double in price? or more?? who knows!

It'll be fun tracking it though ....and seeing one drive hard for several week/months leveraged by a factor of x20!

But that said, there's always the potential for a bunch of stop outs from a poorly timed or just plain unlucky start. What is a worst case scenario? Could they ALL stop out for -4% on the first day, with no Superstock raising it's head to be crowned? I guess so. What are the chances of that happening though? Gotta be pretty slim.

Even if it does happen, the worst case is -4% average for the port. The downside is limited (barring a big gap down for one, or lots of slippage (my volume filter gets rid of those candidates though I think).

Say half of them stop out quickly, and the other half meander up or even stay steady at entry, then what's the impact to the port then? maybe -2% until momo picks up again and a Superstock gets crowned. I'm sure there will be a time or two where a Superstock is budding but it fades and frustrates. And that's OK, patience grasshopper. The Big one is coming soon....

And I just had a thought about factoring in a longer-term bearish stock environment. I would think in a bear that MM's target take longer to hit, so he's doing less dumps and with less dumps this SCOTC system won't trade as often. In a bull market, since MM targets are hit faster, SCOTC will occur more frequently. I guess that's how weak market conditions will be factored in. It's an automatic thing I don't have to worry about.

[Runner]

Spike sounds like you have given this much thought. I have not looked into the underlying stocks on your list other then the few I have on mine. Have you by chance looked into what sector these stocks are in? I bring this up because if many were in the same group and the sector Pulls back it would possibly have a larger negative effect. Now if they are spaced out and from several different sectors I think you’ll have a better chance of huge success.

[RL]

WOW Spike this Is GREAT how do you find the time.

[spikefader]

Spike sounds like you have given this much thought. I have not looked into the underlying stocks on your list other then the few I have on mine. Have you by chance looked into what sector these stocks are in? I bring this up because if many were in the same group and the sector Pulls back it would possibly have a larger negative effect. Now if they are spaced out and from several different sectors I think you’ll have a better chance of huge success.

Great point Runner! I just looked and the results are below.

I think your point is right on the money, and if there isn't the diversity there, the chances of success might diminish......I say might because I'd be interested in seeing how it really would perform if it ever happens. It might surprise logical thinking. It might spot the strong sector, and then filter out the strongest little Superstock that defies all market mentalilty and pure momo booms from the system. But logic says that if it happens, you'd be stopping out of a lot if that sector gets hit from the start of the system trade.

Yall might be pleasantly surprised (I was) to see the following breakdown:

Summary:
6 from Technology, but spread over 4 groups
5 from Healthcare sector, spread over 4 groups
2 from Finance, same group
2 from international, same group
2 from Business, different groups
1 from Transport
1 from Consumer Cyclical
1 from Basic Materials

AET Healthcare HMO
AGN Healthcare Drugs
ARS Basic Materials Aluminium
BCSI Tech NC Tech
BER Finance Insurance PC
CB Finance Insurance PC
CHRWD Transport Trucking
CHS Consumer cyc Retail apparel
CIB International NC International
DJO Healthcare NC Health
GEAC Tech Software
GILD Healthcare Pharma
GOL International NC International
GOOG Tech NC Tech
GYI Business Commercial Services
MCO Business NC Business
MCRS Tech Software Pro
PSYS Healthcare NC Health
RATE Tech NC Tech
SYNC Tech Software Comm

So MM's model/SCOTC filtering is able to spit out a diversified selection of Creme stocks. It just keeps getting better and better! hehe

Which one of those gems is going to be the King? Stay tuned dudes......

[Websman]

WOW Spike this Is GREAT how do you find the time.

Yea how??? lol

[Lyehopper]

Yea how??? lol

Webs.... How about finding the time to pick a stock for the POTW dude!

Need 15 players or more this week! Make it a solid winner too, Not a Volitile gamble play. I know you've got a few up your Vulcan sleeve.

[jiesen]

Wow, Spike! This is really a nifty project you've got going- I'm curious to see whether yours or Lye's will net a larger return in the end. It should be very interesting, regardless. Hopefully, lots of money will be made all around!

[spikefader]

Funny that you and I were devising a scheme within minutes of each other tonight ain't it.... Hey.... I like how "you feel it in your bones" that there's a system yet to be divised. I got that same feeling Spike! LOL....

Only I want to utilize the "human element" more in my system, the competitive spirit that drives the players to make a great pick in the POTW. That desire to win.... That's what makes great companies btw, Great people! Hopefully it'll make a great portfollio model.

Competition brings out the true winners.... This element is something that you can't nail down with a computor program, because it changes from week to week.... This "element" supplies my portfolio with a crop of FRESH, hot picks in the right groups and on the right side of the market's bias, (short and long) and I get these fresh picks to reveiw WEEKLY!!!!.... You never know at what angle a trader approaches a pick.... and (over time) we'll scientifically filter out the POTW cream of the crop? How else can you take advantage of 15 different experienced traders dd and reaserch and compile it all in one thread?.... Only by having 15 top, competitive traders submit their VERY BEST picks (long or short) every week in that POTW thread and keep the right records and score data.

We can still "mix up" the POTW from time-to-time and have a day trading week or just totally change the rules for fun. It's important that we have some fun while we figure this thing out, right?

Best success on your Idea too.... Brilliant btw!

Thanks Lye! Yeah what a cool coincidence that we were plottin' and a system schemin' at the same time! MM and Karel must have rigged this site to flash subliminal messages or sumfin. Oh and speaking of subliminal messages, here's a european tv commercial with one in it. Peaceful playin' windpipe music as a car is being driven on a mountain road. See if you can spot it.
link.

But lookin' forward to the POTW experiment and seeing it unfold. May the genius be rewarded!

Keep 'em pretty, keep 'em emotionless!

[spikefader]

Wow, Spike! This is really a nifty project you've got going- I'm curious to see whether yours or Lye's will net a larger return in the end. It should be very interesting, regardless. Hopefully, lots of money will be made all around!

Thanks, and here here to lots of money!

[dmk112]

Spike, what's your position on YM? I'm shorting it - it looks like DOW couldn't break the resistance around 10710