Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[billyjoe]

Hey Spike,
Could you take another look at IRIS? I got stopped out at a smaller gain than I wanted , but think there's life left in this one. It dropped after a good report then rose and fell again. They raised guidance for next quarter , and met all estimates except for 200 g of income which is a drop in the bucket.
Thanks.


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

$55?

Greetings,

As the least qualified to comment on the QQQQ,I feel compelled to spew some opinion.

On a 1 year chart it looks to me like a possble break from an ascending triangle,which would target 50ish if Im correct.Otherwise its the beginning of a bull trap above 40.

NBB care to take a stab?

cordially Tom

Here's the weekly: (and remember, the weekly trumps the daily . . . .)
A good ole fashioned Ascending Triangle that targets a minimum of $45.


Here's the Point and Figure--
I don't put too much stock in PnF targets. Last week the PnF had the QQQQ's headed south to $27. This week it is up to $55. "Go Figure. . . ."

[skiracer]

Your example of the QQQQ daily looks like an ascending triangle but no cigar. They can be deceiving but there are specific prerequisites which have to be there otherwise the percentages of it going according to how they should aren't giving you the benefit of the doublt. This explanation is from Stockcharts and the accompanying examples of an ascending triangle are what they should look like. We might as well get it right if you're going to bet your money and rely on them for what they are expected to do.

[spikefader]

I dunno ski.... prerequisties are 2 top and 2 rising, and volume isn't crucial despite some preferring to see it. I don't think NB is incorrect, although he could have drawn the lines better. I've drawn the pink lines to show what I see. Clearly with 2 top and 2 rising, so it qualifies. They don't have to be exact but close; and considering it's the weekly, I'd say it's pretty close. There is also a smaller one on the daily which I've also included. The last one is the broadening pattern that I was seeing in it.






So how many people haved joined my bull party now? hehe

[spikefader]

Greetings,

As the least qualified to comment on the QQQQ,I feel compelled to spew some opinion.

On a 1 year chart it looks to me like a possble break from an ascending triangle,which would target 50ish if Im correct.Otherwise its the beginning of a bull trap above 40.

NBB care to take a stab?

cordially Tom

Spew as much as you like bro!
Valid observation I think for the triangle. Breakout in action this coming week dude! hehe

[spikefader]

Spike, rising wedge is a BEARISH pattern. I'm sure you know this already, so why are you anticipating a breakout?

Is this the wedge you're talking about??

[skiracer]

Spike,
I have to agree that it is close an I hope it does go the way you see it. I actually like the play on the Q's regardless of whether it's a perfect ascending triangle or not. I like it short term and wouldn't go to far out with it though.

[spikefader]

I appreciate your constructive critique of my Charts. I never really even knew (exactly) what Divergence was.lol

Hey Spike you even taught me to use the (Prt Sc) button on my keyboard dude!hehehe.... You taught me to post to Image shack, You taught me to keep score on the POTW in 2 minutes VS two hours!.... YOU ARE HUGE!!!! $$$Mr. Market$$$'s 19"" Biceps are like shoestring french fries when compared to yours!

This is some really super info on Divergences man . YOU ARE THE BEST SPIKEFADER! I am truely becoming a better stock trader because of hanging out here! Well.... between you and Skiracer. That dude has sent me some good info too! Well Actually I learned a few things from reading Runner too.... And New Born and Webs and IIC and Jiesen.... I'm tearing up again here dude! AND THANKS TO
$$$Mr. Market$$$ for making all this possible.... oh yeah and that cat Karel, you know, the guy who resizes the charts so you can't really read them and keeps the spammers away.... he's important too!

lol Well thanks but Mr.Market's biceps are bigger than mine! He is the huge one.

And huge for more reasons than that. This site is one of them, a place for us to hang out and throw thoughts around, and sharing his model for all us knuckleheads, and in the face of all the critics that give him a hard time, putting in the effort to do the funny writeups and letting TA flourish in here, and letting Webs have a thread lol, and not entering in the POTW with any of his cheapie gamble picks cuz he'd surely win lots of 'em.

Yup, I can just feel the love dude.

[dmk112]

Is this the wedge you're talking about??

Nah, I don't think that was it but i'm lookin at the chart now and I don't see it anymore.... I guess it was an illusion...

[spikefader]

Spike,
I have to agree that it is close an I hope it does go the way you see it. I actually like the play on the Q's regardless of whether it's a perfect ascending triangle or not. I like it short term and wouldn't go to far out with it though.

Thanks dude. It's pretty aggressive on my part, since it is at resistance and is yet to break out. Buying resistance is something I usually avoid, as ya know, but I haven't overcommitted and won't do anything too nuts

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
When you have time,would you consider a look at CKCM?Its 1 yr chart has more gaps in it,than my bad tootha's.Does it look tradable?
Also I used your PSAR,MFI model on LEXR for an entry at 7.80,So far it works great.
I have it set at 20days with 60 min intervals.
Also want to short OSIP on monday if it gives a nice RR.
cordially Tom

Hey Tom,
CKCM: wasn't that weekly channel long a month ago was a good time to buy it! Today: expanding channel short on Thurday with an inside day on Friday sets it up for good potential for movement either way. There is a gap either side of it now, with resistance at 25.50 gap and support at 19.50 gap. Money flow on the daily and weekly isn't inspiring for bulls. I'd step away from this one and wait I think. You could try to trade the gaps, but it's pretty hard on the brain and would torment either way you trade it. I think the bias has to be short until the channel short is taken out. If that happens, you've got booming from minor, and failing short. But where's the r/r with gap closing at 25.50 and resisting? Yeah, others are better.

Good one for LEXR, glad it worked!

OSIP: I was wondering if you were looking at the SHS and then double top. That double top is the gold medal entry. I think short limit at 26.00-26.20 with stop 26.30 is still a good play. The only bullish thing I see is the weekly with 2 weeks ago being an inside week and last week breaking up from it. The rest of the chart is bearish and DEFINATELY worth the 0.4% risk with a short at 26.30. 10 entries like that and you're still under 4%! hehe Good luck with it. I'll be watching it too and will post if I spot a worthwhile entry.

[spikefader]

Greetings again Spike,

My employer has gone all in on ZICA,Im leary of giving him my opinion,yet I dont want him to take a bad hit.Im seeing lower lows and lower highs,is there any ray of hope?

Earnings come out this week,I want to give the best advice if asked,so I ask for the best advice.

TIA
cordially Tom

humbly, thanks dude. Wow, he's brave....or knows sumfin!

ZICA: Boy, only price support and a couple of bullish daily candles there. Not good enough for picky stalkers. R/R is pretty good though. Long at 2.10 with 1.95 stop to target 6.50 is risking 7% to make 209% is r/r of 30! But it's a gamble, and the likelihood of losing the 7% should be high enough to make anyone walk away from the trade. Here are some charts for it, and I'm sure you've spotted all this stuff. Based on the chart today I think it's headed to zero, as does the current P&F price objective at stockcharts.

If it's lucky enough to get back to 2.50, that will be VERY strong channel resistance and may be as good as it gets. The bull will need to step up soon and do some impressively bullish things before I'd change this view. But hey, wouldn't be the first time it's happened! Maybe their numbers will surprise and give it the kickstart it needs...



Have a great week Tom!

[New-born baby]

Chart Drawing

Spike,
When you speak of drawing lines 'more carefully,' . . .
I was taught that you draw according to the open/closes, not the intraday price spikes ('the tails'). Chas. Dow (the book I read) says 'we are interested only in the open/closing prices.' MY question: he's been dead a long time. Has his teaching evolved to include the tails?

[skiracer]

NB,
Wouldn't you think that the tails indicate the highs and lows of the days or weeks and would be a necessary factor in making any trend lines an analysis? Without including them as part of the package you're leaving out an important number of points.

[New-born baby]

Well. . . .

NB,
Wouldn't you think that the tails indicate the highs and lows of the days or weeks and would be a necessary factor in making any trend lines an analysis? Without including them as part of the package you're leaving out an important number of points.

Ski,
If you go to "Hot Pick of the Day" Ninner has a chart on SWN. He asked whether it is an ascending triangle. If you follow the "tail theory," the answer is 'yes.' Still, I do not (at this time) hold to that. SWN is not bullish as of the close Friday. It may turn bullish soon--a cold snap would certainly help--and now may be the time to buy the weakness (as Spike says). But my gut says 'it ain't no ascending triangle.' And after investigating the web sites on ascending triangles, they do not address the subject of tails, while Chas. Dow's book does. So I guess ole Stubborn here is going to wait until I can see it for myself in print . . . . Hey, maybe you can find some example that you could post here and set me straight.

As always, thanks Ski!