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Originally posted by stocks54
Or you might want to try bidding for the 15.00 strike calls during the 'c' weakness, maybe around $1.40 for the calls when stock price drops to $14.50 area??
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If it were me, I'd be waiting for the abc correctives now, and during the 'c' weakness to $14.50 area you wanna bid into the Feb 17.50 strike calls (ELNBW) for hopefully <$0.80. If the 'c' long gets bought and it keeps impulsing, then 5 impulsive waves in a month should put those 17.50s nicely in the money by at least a couple points, perhaps rewarding with a 5-bagger or more, depending on all the variables and how impulsive it gets. And if the 'c' fails, your risk is tightly controlled.
Or you might want to try bidding for the 15.00 strike calls during the 'c' weakness, maybe around $1.40 for the calls when stock price drops to $14.50 area?? -
I'll post how I do it if it tests ok in a backtest. I also use the "best of two" stops as you do with the 4% and the PSAR. My second stop is similar to theOriginally posted by spikefaderYes, I'm pretty sure some of 'em did. And I've pondered the stop thing for a while and yet to come to anything substantial in the way of change. I recall one of them that stopped out tanked big the following day, can't recall the ticker, and didn't track the others (I should go back and look at em all again to see)....
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The beauty of a 4% stop on a system like this is that becuz it starts diversified across 10-20 stocks....
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But I'd be interested to read about your stop method once you've got it figured! It may be ingenius!
PSAR.
How do you set the 4% stop? Is it 4% if the closing price on the day you bought it then adjusted upward as the stock advances? Do you change the stop daily?
I computed "my" stops on PKD, for example. The closest to the closing price today (11.75) was 10.91 which is 7.16%, the other was 10.60. 4% below the closing price would be 11.28.
TimTim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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Smsc
Spike,
Well, I am kinda of kicking myself for not re-shorting some SMSC a few days ago when it got to $33+ again.
Looks like I was right..... for the time being....
what are you seeing now? I am actually thinking that going long around $28.50 might not be a bad idea?
Your thoughts...please...Comment
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Creme of the Crop #2
Closed out the two WDC positions today on the psar rule for +12.5% and +12.15%
Added 2 fresh positions to MDR at 49.92 with a tight stop on the entire MDR position under the lod. It's psar threatening to change today, and that stop location is the logical one. It's do or die time for the workhorse.Comment
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Hi Tom.Originally posted by Thomrich
lol test the market indeed. There'd likely be a huge gap down hehe
I have not traded ETFs at all. Anybody have any comments on them?
What's a good poor man's substitute for eminis?? Assuming your method is looking for a swing over more than a day or two then how about cheap QQQQ options? I woudn't recommend trying to scalp them, but swings can work nicely if your market direction picking is good. Limited capital risk and enjoy impressive % increases for the money put up.
Take for example my current YM swing. Check out this chart that depicts the price of the 43.00 strike QQQQ puts at the time of my posted YM swing short trades. These puts high this morning was 1.30 or +58% on the average (and you'd probably still be holding looking for more cuz I sure am with these YMs - in fact, just got another swing short signal that could have you adding to those puts at 1.00). If the market drops big, the Qs with it, and Qs want the 40.00 support, you've got a month for it to get there, and you're 3 bucks in the money with those options that will be worth around $3.50 each. On 10 of them, that's $3500 or +324% on your initial outlay of $825. Commission on 10 with IB is only 20 bucks round trip. Now that's extraordinary; if you're lucky enough to get a ride like that.
So for limited outlay you can get good % moves in these options. The good thing about QQQQ is the volume. There's lots of it. Less in the out of the money strikes, but still tradeable for swings that move in your favor that's for sure. The tricky part is if one is incorrect and it gaps against you large and trends against you. Then that's when you realize there's a reason for the higher % potential gain Which is why out of the money options that cost a dime each and you're looking for a good swing and you're right, can often be the best choice. It's all about limiting that downside but being exposed on a good swing in your favor.
I should actually post some QQQQ option plays when I make the YM posts just to see how that pans out. I imagine there will be days where my calls end up in a straddle or strangle position, but that's OK. With a month til expiry there is time on one's side.....
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Gnta
Im riding a lot of GNTA at cost avg of $1.56 just curious as to what your thoughts on its chart are .
ThanksComment
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Originally posted by mystiky if you broke a rule, you need to kick yourself...or an uppercut, whichever hurts most lol
Like I said, if you wanna short into a potential impulse off a 'c' long, be my guest. No way I'd do it cuz I appreciate the power that pattern has. Just like when it fails, which is what I posted about. I had bullish bias while it held and it didn't. Why didn't you short that? lol That's your green light from my perspective, which I think you know by now. Bottom line is 'c's act as good pivots; either side of them has the bias. My medium to long-term bias for SMSC is long. I wouldn't short it as you've been doing. That's just me, and there's PLENTY of times that my bias is shown false. It's not being right that's the important thing; it's putting the patterns and numbers in your favor, and playing the patience game. It helps you NONE to come and post how right you were (while it's NICE being right). It's finding great bias and r/r setups and being patient, and striking when you get the signal you're looking for....that's the important part.
Current views on SMSC are the same as I posted last night in reply to sekto's question on SMSC; I'm a bear in the broader market, and resistance is going to sell, which is what the 'c' failure/resistance for SMSC has done. That long setup failed, and I'm happy to flip to neutral for a while. I am often wrong; but I am never wrong for long.
As for the SMSC long at $28.50, I'd be watching that daily channel long at 28.64 and start looking for a pattern. If one presents itself, then there's the valid r/r setup and it'll be worth a play. I note the weekly channel is around the same place too. I'd be neutral again if the long setup lod stop fails, and neutral on SMSC medium-term if that old weekly channel long price at 28.52 fails.
Best to ya, and make em pretty!Comment
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<< As someone who does not have the experience,or time to trade Eminis,is an ETF a possible "poor mans " substitute? >>
No. The major advantage of futures is their leverage. ETFs are not leveraged, unless you buy them on margin.Comment
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Cool.Originally posted by mimo_100
4% stop is from the buy price. I haven't adjusted or trailed it for the Creme system, just relied on the psar to trail. The idea is to give some initial wiggle room for them since it's an arbitrary basket buy at the first open after the dump.
I could try to get cute with entries and stops, but I doubt it would be worth the extra time it takes and I'm at risk of missing an entry which would suck some of the life out of the system and strong ones perhaps.
Thus far, it doesn't seem broke so I'm not keen to mess with it or the stops. I think 10 positions to start with is ideal as far as time to follow it, and the diversity it offers. Crop 1 had 20 and that was way too much work. Crop 2 had 10 and that was a breeze, especially in the bull market that existed
But all ideas welcomed anyway!Comment
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Creme of the Crop #2
MDR stops out of contention after a fine performance!
The 6 positions closed now, and redirected into USG at 75.34.
MDR profit was +8.8% on the average of 6 (+18.67%, +16.4%, +16.4%, +6.87%, -0.92%, -0.92%) and our workhorse fades to obscurity as our new leader, USG takes the baton from MDR after a fine leg.
EDIT: Actually, the 6 adds to USG bring it's overall average down. The initial position is +15.6%, and the average now is 2.05% over 7.
The remaining four are RGLD, CIB, PKD, and USG. Which will be the SuperStock of Creme #2? Stay tuned!
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It is funny.... But actually this is a great place to get pedigree names for cattle.lol.... I like LLH Vulcan too....Originally posted by spikefader
No offense Ray.... but I think it would be difficult to sell seman from a bull named LHH Dart.BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!Comment
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Usg
Spike,
USG: what a hot chart!
Did you notice? You can buy the stock now for $75.14 and sell the JAN $75 calls for $1.40--a nice $1.26 profit for holding the stock two days. Or sell the FEB $75 calls for $5, a 6.66% profit for a month's worth of holding. The chart targets $80 min. for this one.Comment
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Creme #2:
RGLD stops out today too for +9.3%. Just the one position, which jumps on board USG at 74.69.
CIB cut at 30.30 today for +4.52% on one position, which jumps on board USG at 74.69
Just 2 left now, USG and PKD. Stop under lod for PKD's lonely position. USG has 9 positions now.
It's all happening
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Creme #2:
Well USG is the SuperStock of Creme #2. PKD shows a bearish psar at close, so I'll exit that one tomorrrow and USG will be fully locked and loaded. It'll be interesting to see just how parabolic a surge up can get.
It's in the building materials sector, and with the likes of siblings FLS, NCS, FIX, AMN and CR, which are showing impulsive behavior, perhaps Crop #2 will get a big push up in the face of a weaker broader market.....Comment
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