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Originally posted by spikefader
Here's the FEAR chart:
Sorry SPike!
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No. DumDum here posted only two of the three charts. DOH! The second chart is a comparo of an Inverted Volatility Index, and the S&P 500. Whenever the VIX and the S&P diverge like it is shown, then a pullback has followed very shortly. I confused the situation by handwriting "FEAR" on the second chart. I was trying to indicate that the previous FEAR chart had moved from Mild Fear into the "Just plain a'Fear'ed category"
Here's the FEAR chart:
Sorry SPike! -
Usg
Spike,
I've been following your USG trade, but didn't take it myself. MISTAKE, wouldn't you say? How much gas is left in the tank?Comment
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lol ya, well, Newborn, since the final superstock system add in this post it's moved a nice 7.33% Who'd a thunk?! Fellas, this cream of the crop concept is almost as cool as a 'c' long! lolOriginally posted by New-born baby I can't wait for the next MM data dump!
Let me get back to you about a USG target...Comment
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Spike and NBB,
I was following your fear charts best I could and am hoping for a little more explanation of your point, if your making one. From the way I was reading, it looked as though fear was greatest at the begining of an up trend just after a steap downtrend as I would expect. My question, I guess is what information from this can be used to capitolize on or protect a position? Am I reading it correctly? Were still in increasing fear cycle is my thought. Any comments are greatly appreciated.
Spike, it disturbs me to have heard of earlier posts that may have critisized you and your thoughts. I didn't bother to read them and hope you felt the same way. You have helped me incredidbly in the short time I've known you. Anyone can critisize, only true holders of knowledge can be helpful and humble. Don't let someone elses misunderstandings stop you from ever doing it your way. Those who are most successful found there own way to do something when everyone else thought it wouldn't work.
Your friend
AdamLast edited by Adam; 01-24-2006, 09:48 PM.Comment
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BNT - Double top?
Hey Spike,
Doesn't BNT look kinda of "double-toppish" around 20.50?
Thinking it maybe me a buy at below $18?
I went short today at 20.25...
Comments? Anyone?
Thanks!
P.S. That intraday low print of 18.52 is wrong. The actualy low for the day was 19.32.Comment
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FEAR chart
Adam,Originally posted by Adam
What the Fear Chart does is signal that there may very quickly be a stampede for the door. Are you a deer hunter? Think of it this way: there are 6 does and a buck in front of you, grazing. They do not smell you nor see you; so fearlessly they slowly approach your position as they continue to graze with their heads down. This is the no fear area of the chart.
Then, as they draw nearer, the buck stops and holds his head up to listen. The other does continue to feed, and they give no attention to the fact that the buck has stopped grazing and is listening/looking for an enemy. This is the mild fear condition.
Then a twig snaps. Suddenly every doe and the buck is all eyes and ears, alert for an enemy, ready to bolt at the first sign of trouble. This is the FEAR area of the chart.
Then, you sneeze. The deer both hear and see you now, and with their whitetails up in the air, they run at full speed to escape your trap. This is the extreme fear level in the chart.
And here's how you use it: when the chart shows "fear," you should be aware that one little slip and everybody bolts for the door. Therefore you either 1) don't take any longs here, or 2) have plans/stops/puts or calls in place, because it won't take much for a stampede to occur, and you don't want to get trampled.
Therefore, the chart is an indicator telling you to take extreme caution now before it becomes a stampede.Comment
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Mystiky, I see what your looking at on BNT. I like the fact that it stalled near Dec highs. What I don’t like is the wide bars it has put in recently. One thing is for sure if your wrong the stock will take out the Dec highs, but if your right acceleration to the down side may be intense. I would not have taken the trade based off the wide bars. I was very bullish on the Drug Delivery group a few weeks ago and now it has pulled back from highs. Heck taking a quick look it seems all the drugs have been loosing their thunder as of late.Originally posted by mystiky
Best with it and may she drop like a rock.Comment
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Thanks dude!
Hi, Adam. I'm still trying to wrap my head around that fear chart and don't know exactly where to apply it yet; but I do know that high fear (down the bottom) has shown the last year that high fear is a potential buy point.Originally posted by Adam
I haven't seen the ones that go back further, in very bearish action, and I dare say they may show a different perspective; perhaps they show that it's wiser to step out completely during extreme fear. NB, if you have old fear charts for those times do they show anything in that regard?
Well thanks for the positive feedback and kind words, Adam.Originally posted by Adam
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High Fear
Sorry, Spike. I don't have the archives. For $209, Marty Chenard will give you the access.
Extreme fear may remain for a day, a few days, a week, a month. Yes, the bottom of the panic is an excellent buy point. The question is: how do we know that the bottom has come? My answer is: Marty Chenard wants to sell you the answer for $209. Usually he uses the NYA as an indicator of what institutiions are doing, and bases his buy/sell recommends upon that.
Sorry I wasn't more help . . . .Comment
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Got a little better following this last post. My Vector still bearish, but it's gettin' close to flipping...Originally posted by spikefader
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