Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[New-born baby]

Ugly

Hmmm NB, the market.....she's a nota so hota.....how ugly can today gonna get?

Spike,
Did you read my post on this thread about the savings rate being the lowest since 1933?

I bought BNT anyway at $20.25 right at the open. Has a $28 target.
CCJ: yesterday I asked you if that was a blow off top. Today down another $2.50 to $70. I had purchased the stock at $69, and yesterday it was $82 before the bad news hit: they are going to double the divy and split the stock 2:1. That just crushed the stock . . . btw: I jumped off at $75.41. Might be worth an entry later, mayber Friday or Monday. I'll have to reconsider the chart.

[Gatorman]

Spike:
Given the nosedive in the overall market today, the Creme is looking good.
It might be OK in good, bad and in-between markets.

[New-born baby]

MMs HUGE PICK

Well, Spike, according to the top 11, looks like RYI demonstrated the most strength today: the only one of the 11 in the green, and that a good pop of .73 cents. The Big Guy ought to pick this one . . . .

[spikefader]

Fear - who's scared of that!!!?? lol

Spike,
What are you a-feared of? Nothing? Others are:
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4817/chart13rt.gif

lol NB, that really is a GREAT question and prompts some thoughts.

The answer to your question is that I am a-feared of failing to be disciplined!! That terrifies me.......And I'm tempted to assert that that's really the only thing a trader should be a-feared of too.

See, the way I look at it is that if I'm scared simply cuz everybody else is.......well frankly that just makes me a sheep and an emotional trader........and I'd miss a bunch of successful opportunities.....a) when the market proves the sheep wrong and b) when the sheep are right but my great r/r stock pick goes UP in the face of the sheep and broader market bearishness.

Bottom line is that it's during fear that ya gotta be prepared to buy; and during over-optimism and greed that ya gotta be prepared to sell. Cuz fear and greed are forever running into support and resistance..........and if you apply logical trade decisions to those levels of s/r and do it regularly, and do it independant of emotion, and do it with great discipline and execution.....then you shall be profitable at the end of the day, dude.

The edge is making sure that you forever search for great r/r entries, apply great control of the trade (up and downside), sensible money management and above all, capital preservation.

And if my great r/r setups fail during high fear, so be it....that's cool. I've protected my capital if the market plunges, and I've got the numbers on my side so that over the long run I will succeed ..... by being disciplined in the face of fear and emotion.

And this is why one shouldn't make a habit of holding -20% losers just cuz they are convinced they are right and the market is wrong, and they "know" it's gonna go back up. That's bagholder mentality and that -20 number could get a whole lot worse before it gets better, if at all. I'm sure there are pleny of Enron or dot.com bagholders who will emphatically confirm that's it's ignorant to fail to protect oneself and listen to what the market is saying.

Fact is the next crash doesn't have a scheduled start date lol and it isn't in anyone's diary as a reminder. We gotta trade as if the next top is upon us.....cuz if one were to diversify across 10 stocks at the top with no stop losses in place and prepared to weather it out, and we do it at the top of a market or just prior to a crash then that knucklehead is in serious trouble....and will slip into the thick muddy stinky aweful pit of red hope just like all the bubble bagholders in the history of the market, and then have to endure it for a long time, giving themselves uppercuts for the rest of their life cuz they were so stinkin' presumptous and self-righteous and ego-driven.

And until someone actually experiences great pain over their poor discipline they just won't learn; unless of course they are the exception and they be very clever and listen to Spike hehehe And Spike reminds everyone to take off their rose-colored glasses and illusion-filled egos and trade like a genius warriors.

And as a side thought, that is why there is a lot to the whole 'trade large when it's working and light when it's not' mentality. When you're on a roll and can do no wrong and the market is rewarding, supersize it. When it's all going wrong and makes no sense and your setups are failing and you're just digging a hole, downsize or get the kiddies meal and practise your discipline until the worm turns again.

Anyway, I'm rambling again. lol

Best to all.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Did you read my post on this thread about the savings rate being the lowest since 1933?

I bought BNT anyway at $20.25 right at the open. Has a $28 target.
CCJ: yesterday I asked you if that was a blow off top. Today down another $2.50 to $70. I had purchased the stock at $69, and yesterday it was $82 before the bad news hit: they are going to double the divy and split the stock 2:1. That just crushed the stock . . . btw: I jumped off at $75.41. Might be worth an entry later, mayber Friday or Monday. I'll have to reconsider the chart.

Ya, that was a great post; forgive me for not saying that earlier. Sure is an interesting fact that people feel so complacent about not saving and buying big-ticket items on credit; kind of setting ourselves up for failure eh?! Especially if consumer spending drops sharply and property values plummet. We live in fragile precarious times, even more reason to play cautiously and with discipline in the market.

Good luck with BNT bro!

CCJ nice 9% on it NB! grats...: expanding channel long I see today; intraday looking like it's running outa sellers. 1% risk buying current prices with stop under low of day; pretty hard to pass up considering there's a double bottom on the 5 min chart. But I'm not liking how it hasn't reacted bullishly to that double bottom and won't be surprised if that low doesn't hold. For a good double bottom it's gotta give that undeniable pattern ya know....and today intraday isn't that......it's looking slippery to me. Could be channel long fails and down she comes.

Yep, that was clearly an exhaustion gap yesterday. I think I'll be passing on CCJ for now. If it gets over 71.00 that's arguably a 'c' short failure and it may rally hard from there. For now, stalk mode.

[TFred]

Spike:
Given the nosedive in the overall market today, the Creme is looking good.
It might be OK in good, bad and in-between markets.

Greetings,
I agree ,not too bad from my buy points,a few actually up.And of course BEL is coming back as I type.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

YM short 10875. 15 pt stop.

[spikefader]

Spike:
Given the nosedive in the overall market today, the Creme is looking good.
It might be OK in good, bad and in-between markets.

Greetings,
I agree ,not too bad from my buy points,a few actually up.And of course BEL is coming back as I type.
cordially Tom

Yeah, from the opening prices Creme is underperforming by 1.5%. But I'll refrain from complicating things by averaging in today I think; I'll just leave it run the way it is and let it prove itself.

[spikefader]

Well, Spike, according to the top 11, looks like RYI demonstrated the most strength today: the only one of the 11 in the green, and that a good pop of .73 cents. The Big Guy ought to pick this one . . . .

It sure did. It looks extended on the monthly, but the daily looks impressive. money flow great, bullish zero line reject, volume driving it up impulsively...what's not to like.

But my favorite of them all is BNT. Look at the monthly all time chart. Wow. It's gonna have a huge year I think. I think it's fair to say that we've seen the bottom for that one for a while

[kc14526]

Spike, I know you are pretty busy. I was hoping you could offer your view on
GNTA. It's breaking out and has more than doubled the past 3 weeks and I was
hoping to get in. Do you recommend stalking it some more?

What's your crystal ball say?

Thanks in advance!

[spikefader]

Anyone like SABA out there?

[Adam]

No, they missed, it halted, got slammed for 20% where it's now deciding if it's an over-reaction of justified. I really wouldn't be surprised to see it get bot from these levels and maybe retrace back to 400 by morning. If 350.00 does fail tonight, not good for the next couple weeks. Took my small YM 10pt stop and I'm back to stalkin tomorrow.

Did you place the strattle on GOOG like you were talking about?

[dmk112]

Spike, TRLG might just be in the "C" territory, what do you think?

[New-born baby]

But my favorite of them all is BNT. Look at the monthly all time chart. Wow. It's gonna have a huge year I think. I think it's fair to say that we've seen the bottom for that one for a while

I sure hope you are right. I entered it today, just a little too early, at $20.25 (20.26--with IB commision for those of you without IB, eat your hearts out!). That $28 target looked too tempting to just walk by.

[New-born baby]

Saba

Anyone like SABA out there?

Never noticed this one until this post . . . been very hot, but stopped today at R1, and what's more concern to me, is approaching R2 at $6.25. Still that makes a nice cup . . . or double top. What's Spike's plan here?