Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

IIC,

Lovely. Grats again dude!

[spikefader]

Creme of the Crop - A different view

On the eve of me starting Creme of the Crop #3 (thanks to MM's Groundhog Day data dump) I thought I'd provide a different view of the series, applying different rules to Crops 1 & 2.

Why? Just fer fun I guess And also to provide some stats for diversification lovers out there who are wondering how Crop performs by bagholding the group for a period of time.

So instead of a 4% stop with trailing close outs on bearish psar trends, I applied a flat 20% non-trailing stop loss and set no targets. The results are very impressive.

With a 20% stop there has been only 1 stop out (BCSI) from the 30 picks in close to 3 months of trading. With these new parameters, combined Crops 1 and 2 returned a total 27.22% in 11.5 weeks, or roughly 124% annualized.

Here is the break up:




#note Crop 1 includes a couple of 2:1 splits and have been adjusted.

[spikefader]

Creme of the Crop #3

And the Crop has been done!!! MM's Groundhog Day data dump has been Spikefiltered for momomoneyflowpatterngo favorites.

This is the Creme of the Crop #3.



#you'll note there are 11 in the crop. I just couldn't find a reason to cut the 11th. I'd already cut the likes of AMD USG ARS DIOD and CMC. But I wanted 10, and I've got the best as I see it.

[TFred]

Greetings Spike,

As someone on the sidelines of the "Creme" strategy,it appears that a model is forming from a TA and FA perspective,thats going to be a winner.I think the biggest obstacle for TA is knowing what charts to look at.

The Huge One provides fantastic "snapshots" of where money is flowing.It seems all thats left is the optimal cut point for the crop.Is this the next Stock picking service in the making?

Count me in on this crop,as a novice to this system,is a market order used to purchase the creme from the time the final picks are selected?

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,

As someone on the sidelines of the "Creme" strategy,it appears that a model is forming from a TA and FA perspective,thats going to be a winner.I think the biggest obstacle for TA is knowing what charts to look at.

The Huge One provides fantastic "snapshots" of where money is flowing.It seems all thats left is the optimal cut point for the crop.Is this the next Stock picking service in the making?

Count me in on this crop,as a novice to this system,is a market order used to purchase the creme from the time the final picks are selected?

cordially Tom

Hi Tom.

Yes, TA/FA combo sure is producing great results. And it's certainly outperforming the market by a huuuuge margin

There is no question MM's dump produces some very impressive picks. And if my filtering out the junk can produce 10 great TA picks that leverage MM's model brilliance and offer diversification as well, then all the better.

To your question, for Crops 1&2 I've used the 'buy the open' mentality. And looking back over the charts it's clear that with some patience better prices could have been enjoyed, but I just didn't want to risk the chance of missing an open that was immediately bought for 20% gain or something like that. For that reason I'm going to stick with the 'buy the open' thing tomorrow for Crop 3.

Ya know Tom, and anyone else who's still interested in the Crop series, I've been doing some deep thinking about the system tonight....and looking at the charts and I think I'm coming to the firm conclusion that attempting to leverage the stronger ones out of the pack just isn't worth doing.

At the end of the day, the combined picks left working together not only offer protection by diversification for the entire period traded, but they simply outperform my culling and leveraging attempts. Very often the picks will be eliminated by a bearish daily PSAR only to bounce and rally well. On top of that, there's the added commission cost for leveraging into the strong ones and the time spent tracking and monitoring.

So I think for these cost/time/diversification reasons I shall not be doing the 'leveraging' winners for Crop 3, but rather letting the port go its own merry way to profitability.

Max drawdown is 20%, but what are the chances all 11 of a Crop series fall 20%? I think it's fairly unlikely unless a market crash occurs, in which case they all stop out and the remaining 80% of capital is saved.

As far as targeting goes, I'm tempted to simply close each Crop out each time MM does a new dump......or when each Crop hits a flat 25%.

What does everyone else think about it?

[Karel]

Hi spike, looks good! New dumps might come fast and furious, take now, with RIO sold and QSII almost there. (For those who haven't sold it already...) A minimum period could solve this. A 25% target looks better to me, and you could also consider a 25% target for one or two stocks, and sell the bag. I have no idea how the trade-off: lower return vs. faster turnover would work out. I have a suspicion that buying a Top 5 and selling the bag when one stock hits 15% may not be a bad strategy, but I have not had the time to check it out yet. For 10 stocks, two hitting a target might be a better idea.

All for the sake of laziness!

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

My view

Spike,
You aren't going to believe this but, I don't have an opinion! I don't know when you should close them out. Karel's idea may have merit; better I think would be that Spike reads the chart and says "this is it" as the time comes for each stock individually. To wait until the crop hits 25%--MM has some that haven't yet hit 15% . . . I still think that you need to cull them, only this time cull them only when the chart breaks down with an obvious Dow theory formation.

[mimo_100]

GYI and JOYG

Spike,



I use an “intermediate trend” method. It is like the McClellan oscillator. As long as

the major trend value is greater than the minor trend value, hold. When it crosses over, that is the sell signal. The GYI sell signal was generated on 12/27. “Paid” was $90.09,

so you would have been out with a small profit.



Here is GYI from your COTC 1

[mimo_100]

and here is JOYG

and here is JOYG from the new COTC 3

[kc14526]

Spike, how does the chart for GNTA look? It's starting to break out.

Thanks.

[spikefader]

Creme of the Crop #3 starts

Crop 3 is now off and running! And ....... it trips at the start! Doh! jejejeje Actually this will be a good test for the Crop system; port opening in the face of an extremely bearish broader market! Let's face it, Crop outperforms the market in a flat and bullish market; so I'm guessing it will outperform in a falling market too! Anyway, it is what is, and was was planned, now lets see where she goes from here....



Note that due to recent observations I'm applying new rules for the Creme series as of today; I won't be culling and leveraging like I have been, but rather using a flat -20% stop loss rule with funds to be directed to another open position. The intent is to have the diversity and the broad potential of MM's model strength carry the port to success. Target is open but I'm seriously considering +20%. I also reserve discretionary close out for reasons such as new MM data dump presented or capital protection in the face of crash :eek!

[spikefader]

YM swing stopped out for a push. Daily Vector threatening bearish now. Intraday vector is scalp short bias. Hmmm NB, the market.....she's a nota so hota.....how ugly can today gonna get? Well, DOW still over that major green trendline I have referenced in the past. May want that support, which is 10855.

[TFred]

Greetings,

Im in also with the crop,could be a great day to have gotten in,nice discount to yesterdays prices.Gotta remember the stock market is like geology,time and pressure in the right direction causes huge movements.

The Huge one should have us going with the move.

cordially Tom,thanks Spike,

BTW ZICA bullish again today in the face of weakness,looking for an entry,wish me luck.

[spikefader]

Tom.

I'm seriously considering doing the occasional discretionary add for a few of them. One may argue that on broad market weakness like today that Creme weakness is a buying opportunity. I'm wondering whether the entries should be more discretionary based on some simple intraday patterns. I mean why use an ugly mandatory entry system on Creme stocks? If it's 'fear of missing a move', which it has been, then that's trading off emotion and not the logical thing to do. The logical thing to do is at least attempt good discretionary entries based on simple support. That's how I did many of the adds for the previous 2 crops. Perhaps I'll do that for the next Crop, and for this one, add at support for the really weak ones today.

ZICA: Hmm, you be chasin' dude. Looks like it's done a 3rd completion on the 20-day chart and intraday shows high volume up top today which sure doesn't surprise me. But if you're certain you wanna enter today I'm thinking bid 2.16 to try and catch the 4 down at price support. 2.07 is 4% risk, and the intra pivot is 2.06 doesn't really provide a good stop area. You could bid 2.06 pivot support and then tuck your stop under yesterday's volume at say 1.97. That would be 4.4% risk. But considering the resistance up at 3.00 I just don't see the value in the r/r. But good luck dude!

[New-born baby]

Fear

Spike,
What are you a-feared of? Nothing? Others are:

http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4817/chart13rt.gif