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I'll let Spike answer for himself...but here is something I'd offer...IMO technical analysis takes into account news on a long term basis...but in the short term...news rules.
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Makes sense to me...Thanks!Originally posted by IIC
Your absolutely right. News rules big time.
I may go out on a limb and get back in on thursday, which would be a gamble. If earnings are not up to expectations, DHB will probably drop back to the low 14's. Todays pullback was a gimme, but I think it'll drop a little more tomorrow. My guess is that there will be some prfit taing going on before the announcement...or not.
I'm also keeping a limit order in for $14.63...Hey it's a long shot, but it can't hurt to try.
Hold your position IIC...I think you're set up to make more $$$...Comment
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Spike,
Looks like TZOO is forming SHS reversal pattern. Another short candidate?
Thanks.Comment
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Re: Spike + MrMarket = Homerun derby!
Sure thing. I was thinking along the same lines today. I occasionally do a chart for Mr.Market's picks, and then fail to watch it for the perfect channel day. I'll try to watch them and post when there's a channel day to enter.Originally posted by New-born babySpike
Can this baby ask you a big favor? Next time the slugger (aka MrMarket) picks a winner, will you then immediately follow it up with the proper entry point? I realize that in some cases you may have to say "the chart is terrible; wait a few days/weeks." as the case was with Deck. But newborn babies like me could sure use the dynamite team advice coming from you and the big guy.
Thanks for all you do, and the very best of investing to you.Comment
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Strictly a chart man, with no fundamental analysis whatsoever. That stuff just adds confusion. I try to block my opinion/interpretation or the Street's opinion of news out completely. So many times I've seen price move opposite to what I and others would expect.Originally posted by Websman
While talking about earnings, I've traded earnings enough to know that after hours announcements can snag some big fast moves. It can be very profitable to fade the initial move - short the very first spike and buy the very first selloff. Have a limit order sitting outside a 5 min bollinger band and you'd be surprised how often you'll get filled, and then price does a U-turn and has you grinning from the get-go. Been most successful on the short side.Comment
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Ya IIC, the debate between Technical Analysis (TA) and where, if at all, it fits into Fundamental Analysis (FA) is an interesting one. Is TA reflective or predictive of FA, or is it just a bunch of bologne and squiggly lines?? Does TA simply reflect news and events, or can it actually predict them??Originally posted by WebsmanMakes sense to me...Thanks!Originally posted by IIC
Your absolutely right. News rules big time.
I may go out on a limb and get back in on thursday, which would be a gamble. If earnings are not up to expectations, DHB will probably drop back to the low 14's. Todays pullback was a gimme, but I think it'll drop a little more tomorrow. My guess is that there will be some prfit taing going on before the announcement...or not.
I'm also keeping a limit order in for $14.63...Hey it's a long shot, but it can't hurt to try.
Hold your position IIC...I think you're set up to make more $$$...
Personally, I think TA is much more than a bunch of lines, and that it does both reflect and predict. I've seen TA price movement simply reflect the news when it is released. I've also seen TA predict a move on news that is yet to hit the Street.
Other thoughts: A failed TA setup is simply a reflection of what the market is wanting to do. This is why the market 'is always right'. The market will do what it wants to do, caring nothing about predictive TA setups - or FA opinions for that matter. This is why stops are essential for me. When I'm wrong I don't get hurt. The TA predicted 'X', yet the market did 'Y', and I'm smiling either way. I might get frustrated with stops outs that tag me then turn and run, like SMH the other day, but never hurt and always confident I'll snag one like LSCP.
Oh, and remember: Good FA combined with great news can still be sold and good news can still hurt all the people who bought the good news, and hold on in the HOPE that it SURELY must turn around and put them in the black again. Little do they know that there might be bad news around the corner or that all the FUNDS bought the rumor of good news, and then they sold the actual news. Happens all the time. Buy the rumor, sell the news. This is why you see a stock being bought up to it's good news announcement and then sold. The market predicted the good news, bought in anticipation of it, then when the news hits, there is no reason to hold it any more.
Webs my friend: Vulcans don't think thougths of 'gambling' and 'going out on a limb'!
Vulcans plan the trade and trade the plan and leave emotion (including those of regret and revenge) at the door, even though it's entertaining to joke about revenge on OFG 
. There will forever be regret surrounding trading. But it should never be an emotion that's entertained by the disciplined and detatched trader. Take your money and run - and be happy that prices will always move around, up, up and down, down. Laugh back in the market's face when it proves to you that you got out too early. Laugh because you were disciplined and unemotional about your reason for entry and exit. It was all just a plan, and only a tiny part of the 5-year chart that has been and is yet to be. Be happy that prices are moving against you. This is what makes the market in which you can become wealthy.....assuming you stay focussed and unemotional.
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Originally posted by yaoyao TZOO: remember this:
Today:
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BEL in review
Well folks, I'm sure there are some here that don't like to think about what I'm going to highlight in this post, but a lesson can be learnt from it - maybe save someone from a future mistake, so here it is:
First chart: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...in_trouble.jpg
Today it's at $5.00 and if $4.41 doesn't hold, it could see 2.50 in a short space of time. Pull up a 3 year chart and you'll see what I mean. And notice how the simple pattern known as the Head and Shoulders started it all off. Hmmm.
Lessons: Buy and hold can hurt you, as can dollar cost averaging. If you MUST do it, why not spend a little extra on insurance with Leaps or Puts at the times when significant support is lost - such as the big channel long day that failed. Had you hedged back there, you'd be sitting in the happy seat rather than the sad one. I wish I'd noted the cost of Puts back when I first posted, just to show you how options can redeem a losing stock.Comment
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Teach us about options
Spike
At some convenient opportunity please instruct us about saving our necks through options. We'd appreciate it!Comment
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Spike, you are wise beyond your years...
Thanks for the great advice. I will not go out on a limb on DHB.
I was right, though about today's actiond on DHB...It went down again. I believe I may wait until after earnings and find a proper entry point.
Part of my Vulcan trading theory has to do with a certain issue that Spock had. Spock was not just a Vulcan...he was only half Vulcan. The other half of him was Human. Spock usually controlled his emotions, but at times, his human side attempted to take over. A Vulcan trader will have this same problem from time to time. No matter how much a Vulcan maganges to suppress jis or her emotions, the human side will come out occasionally and they will act in an irrational manner....thus a poor trading decision will be made.
hmmm...I could write a trading course called...."The Vulcan trading System, trade like a Vulcan and profit."Comment
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Re: KCS
Well well. Came back to that price by volume pretty quickly! Intraday inverted SHS, with entry at around 13.30 today. A valid setup is buy at 13.00-13.30 (neckline break area), with a stop at 12.99. Was a channel long day today, but channel expanded, so caution with longs - definately stop at 12.99Originally posted by spikefader
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Re: Teach us about options
Sure.Originally posted by New-born babySpike
At some convenient opportunity please instruct us about saving our necks through options. We'd appreciate it!
It's pretty simple really, although it CAN get complicated real fast. But for simple hedging purposes on a long, read this:
Effectively it means this: Say you're long a stock and bullish on it, but significant support just broke and you want to hedge your position. If you buy a Put option, quoted at $1.50, then you'll actually pay $150 for it and that is your maximum risk. If your stock falls, then the Put option increases in value. It's the same concept as shorting. The Put quote might rise to say $5.00 or MUCH MUCH more IF the stock really tanks, (say $25.00 quote/$2500 actual).
So for an increase to $5.00 quote price, you've just made $350 less commissions. For an increase to $25.00 quote, you've just made $2350.
Now whichever it is, $350 or $2350 profit, outlaying only $150 is pretty impressive % increase for a small outlay.
And if you're wrong and your stock takes off bullish, then you can ONLY lose a MAX of $150. It's like insurance. Generally, you would sell the Put for less loss if you discover you have another bullish signal that removes your desire to have the hedge in place. You might recover say $100 from your $150 initial cost if you have strict rules like me. So you've only paid $50 for the trouble of owning the Put during that short period of time you feared your stock was weak and could tank.
Make sense?Comment
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