Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

YM thoughts:

[New-born baby]

Usg

The weekly hasn't looked too bad though, although it's clearly weakening. That failed break over 50.20 has seen selling most of the days since; money clearly leaving....but major weekly channel support only a couple points lower. Don't see the r/r for a short just yet. I'll leave the call writing to you buddy. I'd rather limit my risk with puts. Speaking of selling calls, how did that USG play of your turn out. Got ugly pretty quickly and I remember posting a few questions on that play but you must have been busy and missed them. That's the kind of gap up against short call position that can bite pretty hard....

USG--I have to think a little bit--that was 200+ trades ago . Oh yeah, I bought USG, sold some covered calls, took a profit on the stock and bought back the calls at a loss, but made an overall small profit. I think the very next day it jumped $16 . . . .

KWK is taking a licking again today. VLO isn't too far behind

[spikefader]

AIN short from couple weeks ago. Closed for lunch money. Was lookin' ok there for a while. Next!

[New-born baby]

CERS Hammered

CERS is taking a few shots in the head right now . . . down $.60

[Rob]

Nvda

Spike, I'd be interested in any T/A you might offer on NVDA. I've added some Rev. & EPS nos. too. To me this is looking pretty good.

[spikefader]

Swing long YM 11104. 30pt stop

Another push. Next.

[spikefader]

NB,

Glad you were able to houdini your way outa that one dude (USG). I was worried when my replies went unanswered you may have been stuck in bilgewater.

You get the harry houdini award of the month! hehe

[spikefader]

CERS is taking a few shots in the head right now . . . down $.60

Yep; it fell out of it's '3' up Doh. Should have stopped ya out fer even if I was tradin' it. Tested the 'c' today and has held thus far....so much for that rounding pattern.....

[Adam]

Spike and NBB,

I'm holding some VLO Jan 07 $60 call options. Got caught in the drop. It sounds like you might be recommending to let this go here. Any recommendations?

Adam

[DSteckler]

No, I meant buy support. That yellow line is the area you want to buy on a return of price to that support.

Oh, okay. I wasn't sure what you meant. Thanks.

[spikefader]

Spike and NBB,

I'm holding some VLO Jan 07 $60 call options. Got caught in the drop. It sounds like you might be recommending to let this go here. Any recommendations?

Adam

Hey Adam. I posted some charts recently for VLO; I think around Feb 2 that suggested possible stall, and then the broadening bearish pattern chart that targeted 44.00. That's what the pattern targets, so whatever worth you see in that. You can use the search feature to track down my posts, or just review recent pages.

In your favor you've got a major channel long last week. I note 56.85 earlier in the week was expanding channel short, but today is channel long. So there may be your fuel to ignore that bearish broadening target....if it can get over 56.85 that would be a strong indication.
If that weekly channel long of 47.99 doesn't hold, 44.00 should come quickly.

Good luck dude, hope that's helpful in some way.

[Adam]

HURC trading at the bottom of the days range. $27.77 down 22%

[spikefader]

HURC trading at the bottom of the days range. $27.77 down 22%

Yup. Gobbled up that 2.7% risk as the ascending pattern failed.....actually double bottom entry at 27.45 with 1% risk stop under lod is another good r/r setup usin' the old buy support mentality.

[New-born baby]

Vlo

Spike and NBB,

I'm holding some VLO Jan 07 $60 call options. Got caught in the drop. It sounds like you might be recommending to let this go here. Any recommendations?

Adam

My view of VLO is that shortterm, VLO may retrace back to $48. But I see VLO bouncing up towards the $60 mark in May to retest the previous $63 high of earlier this month. I am bullish on oil stocks for 2007. I foresee $80 oil this year.

I personally own VLO, and I have sold the $70 Jan 07 calls at $4.00 (covered today at $3.50) and then resold them today for $3.80 and (I hope a little later today, $4.00). I'll take $73.80+ for what I currently own, plus the divies are coming for lunch money.

[spikefader]

HURC: If the lod fails, it's probably going straight to 26.50 gap support; another good play to risk 1% on it. If that fails, the gap fill support for another 1%? That'll be 5.7% allocated in 4 setups; pretty conservative way to play it. And if they all fail, you don't want it long. The gap up was high volume, so failure of the gap is very ominous for it.