Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Happy Turkey Day folks.

I pray yall are as blessed as I have been, and enjoyed the day as much as I did with family.

@Runner; thanks bro.

@Tom; yep, WPO looks like 600 to me...




On the eminis Tom, Yes, I prefer trading futures over single stock issues - for so many reasons. I like the liquidity, the volume, the volatility, the price action, the way they react well to patterns and support and resistance, the way they can move fast and give you those perfect entries. I also enjoy the speed of executions, commissions, and their system trading potential. The eminis consistently react well to the signals my system models generate. Stocks just can't compete in these regards.

With a good direct access broker with solid trading platform you can set up hotkeys and one-click booktrader features where OCA orders are sent with one click, which makes a big difference for scalping. There are other third-party software platforms like Ninjatrader that you can use to improve targeting, multiple contract handling, system trading, entries and exits of those positions, risk management etc. And then there's the additional after hours and pre-market slippage risk on bad news that single stocks will always possess. Although having said that, the eminis have been known to spike and plunge on light volume in recent times. But I do think stocks carry more risk these days and you never know when a stock is going to get hit hard on light volume.

But with all their pluses, futes are still very very challenging trading vehicles and while they do reward the disciplined trader they are not for everyone, and there is risk attached to them because of the leverage they offer and the potential for fast volatile moves. It's very easy to dig a hole for yourself with them if you get stubborn and hopeful and add to losers in a strong trend against you. This is why one really should papertrade them for a couple months to get used to their price action, witness how they act in volatile times for eg. when economic reports are released, see what they do, how they react, the headfakes they give, the whiplashes, the unforgiving power they possess. They are an entirely different and dangerous animal to stocks, and as with any dangerous animal, you watch from outside the cage before you open the door and get in there. Stops are a must. Unwavering discipline is a must. And the ability to turn on a dime and admit you're wrong is a must.

Best of luck if you ever trade them Tom!

Good hunting this week folks.

[Runner]

Good call spike on ESCL strong pop today. SMTS fell out of bed and watching it!!

[spikefader]

Slime of the Swamp #1 closes out today.

Superslimer CE unable to turn a profit against impulsive bull. So it's not that slimey after all......a Superslime stock SHOULD be able to make money in the face of a bull. But the good thing is that the system suffered minimal losses of only -1.47%.

System started at this post http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=5204 with CE OSIP LEA DDS ARM SCG PRGO CRXL MATK MCIP SLE WPI ALSK WLDAE PHTN MVL.

SLE out even
WIP -0.5%
MVL -1%
OSIP -0.41, -1.08% and -1.2%
WLDAE +2.03%
MATK +0.2%
MCIP even
PRGO out -0.5%
ALSK out -1.5%
ARM out -2.5%
PHTN out -0.6%
CRXL out -1.2%
LEA out -0.3
DDS out -1.4%
Then SuperSlime CE eliminations were:
-1.75 -1.87 -1.87 -1.87 -1.87 -1.87 -2.35 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41.
Port final average with all losses is -1.47% (-42.67 over 29 positions).

Really not that bad and the Slime port underperformed the broader market by a small margin.

Well, Lye, that wraps it up. I am looking forward to a well-timed Slime port that's in sync with the broader market.

Oh, and for anyone interested on the movement of those eliminated, there were no standouts to the downside. Not one of them gave a bearish ride down. There simply wasn't momo there to exploit. The filters identified some momos, but remember the day when there were massive eliminations, well that right there was perhaps the whisper that Slime wasn't going to slip and stink much.

Onward!

[spikefader]

Thanks Runner. Speaking of good calls:

(AOB) I don't see anything bullish in this stock at this point, that is a bear flag you're looking at... Just a thought

And a good thought it was. I had (EDIT: bullish) bias while the 5.25 low held, and over the next couple days the channel turn down with bearish money flow reject failure at 6.00 resistance and it's lookin' sour for AOB. Those bear flags can be powerful patterns. Nice call dmk.

[spikefader]

SCOTC Creme of the Crop

CIB closes out for +0.7% (26.03 to 26.22) today a daily PSAR trend change. I flipped it over to GYI here at 94.25 support.

So we're left with GOOG, ARS, MCO, AET, CHS and GYI battling it out for the SCOTC title.

[Lyehopper]

Good Job Spike!

Slime of the Swamp #1 closes out today.

Superslimer CE unable to turn a profit against impulsive bull. So it's not that slimey after all......a Superslime stock SHOULD be able to make money in the face of a bull. But the good thing is that the system suffered minimal losses of only -1.47%.

System started at this post http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=5204 with CE OSIP LEA DDS ARM SCG PRGO CRXL MATK MCIP SLE WPI ALSK WLDAE PHTN MVL.

SLE out even
WIP -0.5%
MVL -1%
OSIP -0.41, -1.08% and -1.2%
WLDAE +2.03%
MATK +0.2%
MCIP even
PRGO out -0.5%
ALSK out -1.5%
ARM out -2.5%
PHTN out -0.6%
CRXL out -1.2%
LEA out -0.3
DDS out -1.4%
Then SuperSlime CE eliminations were:
-1.75 -1.87 -1.87 -1.87 -1.87 -1.87 -2.35 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41 -2.41.
Port final average with all losses is -1.47% (-42.67 over 29 positions).

Really not that bad and the Slime port underperformed the broader market by a small margin.

Well, Lye, that wraps it up. I am looking forward to a well-timed Slime port that's in sync with the broader market.

Oh, and for anyone interested on the movement of those eliminated, there were no standouts to the downside. Not one of them gave a bearish ride down. There simply wasn't momo there to exploit. The filters identified some momos, but remember the day when there were massive eliminations, well that right there was perhaps the whisper that Slime wasn't going to slip and stink much.

Onward!

Man You're the best!.... I'll try another search and filter to see if I can dredge up some "a bit more slimey" for next go-round. I'll do some backtesting and wait till there's a turn in this bull to post them. Remind me when you think the timing might be right and we'll try her again.

Thanks for all your hard work and effort! If this were my forum Spike, I'd send you cash just to keep you posting here!

[dmk112]

Thanks Runner. Speaking of good calls:
And a good thought it was. I had (EDIT: bullish) bias while the 5.25 low held, and over the next couple days the channel turn down with bearish money flow reject failure at 6.00 resistance and it's lookin' sour for AOB. Those bear flags can be powerful patterns. Nice call dmk.

Thanks. It actually tanked on some "bad news" - Sometimes I wonder if chart patterns and news are tied together somehow. I mean, if there was no news, would it have broke that bear flag? I guess we will never know... Maybe it was just an excuse to sell...

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Im hoping to get some help here,as I have no experience short selling.Today I shorted WPO at 736 and decide to set a stop at 750.Clicked buy to cover,limit price 750,as soon as I clicked OK,it placed cover trade,at 736.

I searched help section and couldnt find how to set a stop when short.Im still with Scottrade,any ideas?I still feel its a good short sell,but prefer not to watch 24-7 to cover if it turns.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings,

Im hoping to get some help here,as I have no experience short selling.Today I shorted WPO at 736 and decide to set a stop at 750.Clicked buy to cover,limit price 750,as soon as I clicked OK,it placed cover trade,at 736.

I searched help section and couldnt find how to set a stop when short.Im still with Scottrade,any ideas?I still feel its a good short sell,but prefer not to watch 24-7 to cover if it turns.

cordially Tom

OK dude, I know what you're doing. You've got the wrong order type. The order you want to choose is a "buy stop limit", and not simply a buy/cover limit. You are mistakenly thinking that if you set a limit price of 750 that means when it hits 750 it will buy/cover at 750, but what it REALLY means is that you want to buy/cover NOW at a limit maximum price to cover of 750. So what it does is it buys the ask right now, with a max limit of 750.

The word 'stop' is the vital thing missing. A "buy stop limit" order is an order to buy/cover only when the stop price is traded, with a max price being the limit you specify. So in this case you've got to enter 2 prices; the first being the stop price to activate, and the second being the max price you'll pay to cover.

Alternatively you can use a "buy stop market" order, and you only need to enter 1 price; the stop activation price, and when that's hit you will be filled by paying the asking price until you are completely filled and covered, and that means if the ask moves up while you're covering then there is your slippage. And that's why it's wise to always use a buy stop limit for thin vol stocks, or when you're not watching it like AH or premarket when it's thin. You can get bitten on the slippage with market orders, so take care.

Hope that helps.

[Lyehopper]

Greetings,

Im hoping to get some help here,as I have no experience short selling.Today I shorted WPO at 736 and decide to set a stop at 750.Clicked buy to cover,limit price 750,as soon as I clicked OK,it placed cover trade,at 736.

I searched help section and couldnt find how to set a stop when short.Im still with Scottrade,any ideas?I still feel its a good short sell,but prefer not to watch 24-7 to cover if it turns.
cordially Tom

With all the recent talk about setting stops (Mine are normally just mental stops) It's got me thinking more seriously about stops too....

Actually, I called my rep @ Ameritrade Friday with a similar question. I wanted to set a (for lack of better term) "protective stop" on a short trade.... and ALSO set a "Target cover" stop on the same trade.

Can't be done, (upper and lower stop/limit on same trade) at least at AMTD it can't. My rep says they're considering making that an option, but don't know when it'll be available. He suggested using "trailing stops"?.... not so sure that's what I want.

Can you fellas do that (set two stops) at your online brokerages?

[dmk112]

Lye, yes with IB (Interactivebrokers) you can set a bracket order when you purchase or (short) a stock. What it does it automatically hooks you up with a stop loss order and a profit target order. It's pretty useful! And IB's fee's are a fraction of what AMTD fees are, I suggest you switch dude.

[billyjoe]

Spike,
I'm searching your COTC list for a possible POTW pick. MCO is what I'd call a beautiful clean chart. I'd like a whole personal portfolio of those.
Hope to have your permission to use the "superstock" designation in the Cheap Stock port even though there was none last week. When you get down to the final COTC stock it will be interesting to see the value it has accumulated. Thanks

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Yeah Lye, IB's the way to go. That's surprising it's a no-go with Ameritrade. Sheesh, retail brokers; how do they get any business without such a fundamental thing as stop/target combo as a miniumum. Direct access a whooooooooole lot better than a mere 5-second-guarantee anyway. Retail customer service might be better, but I'd rather have the better/faster platform. As an active trader, I guarantee you'll notice the difference switching to direct access. Others here have and they wouldn't go back, I'm sure.

[spikefader]

Spike,
I'm searching your COTC list for a possible POTW pick. MCO is what I'd call a beautiful clean chart. I'd like a whole personal portfolio of those.
Hope to have your permission to use the "superstock" designation in the Cheap Stock port even though there was none last week. When you get down to the final COTC stock it will be interesting to see the value it has accumulated. Thanks

billyjoe

Yep, sure you can use the "Superstock" deso;
billyjoe's Superstock#1,
Spike's Superstock#4,
jiesen's Superstock#2 ........... and we need to keep a record of em and see which one becomes a long-term Superstock. Ahhhhh that's too much work though lol

And as far as I'm concerned the Creme and Slime list is a free for all for the POTW! First come first served basis. If I want to take one, I'll just have to be quicker than everyone else to declare it Shoo, the way my POTW has been going I better get one now! lol Why I haven't taken GOOG the last 2 weeks I'll never know. Been bullish on that for ages and it's been creme! Doh!

[Lyehopper]

Lye, yes with IB (Interactivebrokers) you can set a bracket order when you purchase or (short) a stock. What it does it automatically hooks you up with a stop loss order and a profit target order. It's pretty useful! And IB's fee's are a fraction of what AMTD fees are, I suggest you switch dude.

What do your trade commissions cost there dude? What are your margin interest rates?
(Edit) Never mind dude!.... I found it.... Researching now.... Thanks!