Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Was looking back and thought it worth mentioning MFLX in review.
See the posted entry conditions here:

This is a great example of why it's worth the time spent hunting and stalking. It's possible to find the great entries; you just have to know what to look for. On the day, it was risking 2.4%. The stop was never even threatened. And it has given +50% thus far, and if she goes to 5th wave, it'll be closer to +80% profit. Risk 2.4% to get 80%? Yep, very nice

[spikefader]

b_critical:
You were asking about FBR back in late April. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=3310

Channel long last Thursday. I think it's a good long now while 13.58 holds. Tuck a stop under there, and target upper channel 17.00ish and rising. 25% profit and rising, risking 4%, not too bad.

[spikefader]

Hey Spike...I probably should know this...But when you are Bullish or Bearish...What kind of time frame are you talking about?
For example...I am Bearish for the next week...but I am Bullish for the year-end.

Hey IIC. Good question!

Timeframe can be short (1 day), but that 1 day can turn into weeks in trending conditions, like what we've had. When I post my bias, I'm taking a trend stance for the very next trading day, and I remain with that bias until I get a Vector signal change.

It chops from time to time (you may recall times when I was very choppy) BUT when it settles on a trend, it can last for weeks. This post http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=3318 is one of the few that explain what I'm trying to do. In fact, that post explains the weekly 'c' long entry for the Qs I was talking about back then. And since then, Vector has trended bullishly really well. So it got me bullish early on, pretty much the day after that first good rally when Dow hit 10k and there was lots of fear around.

Out of curiosity, I just quickly went back through the thread to find my calls to show how I caught the bull trend early. (got bored and only went back to late April). Here they are for anyone interested.

4/20/05 - bearish (curiously, this coincides with an extreme reading on Newborn's Fear factor chart http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=951) and the next day the Dow hit 10k got huge support and market rallied hard all day....big up day in the face of extreme fear.

4/25/05 - bullish
4/28/05 - bullish early, then neutral stance at close
4/29/05 - bullish at close
5/2/05 - firmly bullish
5/3/05 - bullish
5/4/05 - bullish
5/9/05 - bullish
5/13/05 - bearish
5/18/05 - bullish
6/2/05 - bullish
6/26/05 - bearish for 5 trading days
7/2/05 to present day BULLISH ALL THE WAY What a nice impulse huh!

Here's a QQQQ chart with the above calls plotted.......shows that Vector did OK

[spikefader]

OK folks. Vector closed bearish on Friday, so guess what! Yep, bear suit is going on. I feel good that Newborn's Fear chart is confirming this bear call too!

I'm still bullish longer-term on the market, but I will definately be looking for swing shorts in futures on Monday. I'll also be buying some QQQQ calls at double top resistance somewhere through the day if the opportunity presents itself.

[dmk112]

Was looking back and thought it worth mentioning MFLX in review.
See the posted entry conditions here:

This is a great example of why it's worth the time spent hunting and stalking. It's possible to find the great entries; you just have to know what to look for. On the day, it was risking 2.4%. The stop was never even threatened. And it has given +50% thus far, and if she goes to 5th wave, it'll be closer to +80% profit. Risk 2.4% to get 80%? Yep, very nice

Spike, do you have any target in mind for this one?

[spikefader]

dmk112,
The upper channel from the 14.07 low is 23.80 now, and rising. That upper 'tag' of the line is the target. By the time price gets to it in a normal bullish run I would expect to be 25.00 in a couple weeks of pure bull and higher still if pice meanders up without a surge to the line. That's the great thing about channel targets, they improve in your favor!

[New-born baby]

Kbh

Spike,
Do you have an entry for KBH? I'd like to know where you'd jump in at.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Do you have an entry for KBH? I'd like to know where you'd jump in at.

OK, off the daily, and channel-wise, you want 79.19 to hold, since that was the recent channel long.

What worries me about KBH is the channel short on Thursday. I'd recommend you go off the hourly chart for your entry. Good little entry system that one. But it's more aggressive than my usual system of channel long with pattern. For that reason, when in good profit, stop to even is wise.

[spikefader]

ZICA delivers at last. Newborn, I hope it's still in your bag! Today's high so far 3.40 lol

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Spike

ZICA delivers at last. Newborn, I hope it's still in your bag! Today's high so far 3.40 lol

Yes indeed! And I sold BPT today at $75.25 for a nice profit, thank you! I probably should have held it longer, but I took the money while I had it. What regret I have is that I tried to put a friend into ZICA last Friday at $2.55 and missed it. $2.57 was as low as it got . . .

Thanks SPIKE!!

[spikefader]

Newborn: ZICA: Well done There is a very bullish upper channel expansion from the 2.10 low, so that's whispering that ZICA could head for the falling upper channel from the February highs (channel is currently 4.20). When it hits that 4.20 area, you want to be looking intraday for a bearish pattern to confirm an exit. Why? Well, it's pretty solid resistance, and it's made a very fast move. There WILL be profit-taking at that channel resistance, and the price resistance from all those spikes up to the 4.20 area on the weekly chart. Smart money exits at resistance. You are smart money BUT, the intraday pattern might not show itself, and price could just bulldoze thru that resistance. So that's why you gotta look for the pattern to confirm the exit.

If you are forced to exit, then for reentry look for the 4 correction (might be as low as 3.20), so that's where ya want to stalk it. Anyone who missed it, that's the place you should be hiding patiently right now.

[New-born baby]

Thanks!

Spike,
Thank you for the heads up. I'll be watching it closely. I look for a pullback tomorrow anyway. Last time ZICA jumped up, it pulled back, so I expect a repeat its last performance.

Thanks again for the two profitable calls!

[spikefader]

You're welcome!

Vector bearish at close, so bearish confirmation for tomorrow. Caught a nice afternoon short in YM today

[B.J]

Spike, I'll start by pointing out that my wave counting ability is beginner-level

But, I look at STV, and come up with seven, and I pretty much know that's not possible:

1. 7-10
2. 10 flat
3. 10-11.5
4. 11.5 flat
5. 11.5-12.75
6. 12.75 flat
7. 12.75-??

Like I said, I know there can only be 5 up. Maybe I'm combining two of them. How do you see it?

[spikefader]

Spike, I'll start by pointing out that my wave counting ability is beginner-level

But, I look at STV, and come up with seven, and I pretty much know that's not possible:

1. 7-10
2. 10 flat
3. 10-11.5
4. 11.5 flat
5. 11.5-12.75
6. 12.75 flat
7. 12.75-??

Like I said, I know there can only be 5 up. Maybe I'm combining two of them. How do you see it?

This is how I see it. I don't know what true EWers would say, but this is my interpretation, and I'd trade it this way. If long, the black 5th completion is the time to exit to take profits. Look to enter long on the abc correction.