Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[df21084]

Bmhc

Spikefader,

What's your take on an entry point for BMHC? After all, it's the Auggie Doggie winner.

[New-born baby]

Zica

Newborn: ZICA:

If you are forced to exit, then for reentry look for the 4 correction (might be as low as 3.20), so that's where ya want to stalk it. Anyone who missed it, that's the place you should be hiding patiently right now.

Added ZICA shares at 2.97 today.
Edit: added more at 2.90.

[spikefader]

Spikefader,

What's your take on an entry point for BMHC? After all, it's the Auggie Doggie winner.

This is what I recommend:

[b_critical]

Grabbed some at 2.902 with quick stop if drops.

Made some on this week but sold just prior to 24% jump. Only got 12%.

[df21084]

Wow

This is what I recommend:
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/377...aiting21yj.jpg

Thanks. Believe it or not, that was exactly what I was going to do. I amaze myself sometimes.

[spikefader]

Pretty good place FIB-wise for ZICA; 50% retrace of the recent spike, and 38.2% of the start of the move.

[New-born baby]

Double bottom on KBH

Another double bottom for KBH on the daily: two days in a row.

Right now trading at the bottom for $79.43. Looking for a spike to $79.60.
lol

Edit: stop laughing. It fell through support to $79.30

Edit #2: start crying. It just dropped to $79.19, where Spike said he didn't want to be holding it below this line.

Edit #3: it collapsed to $78.97, then rocketed back to $79.46. LOL in relief!

Edit #4: now she's collapsed again to $79.00. Triple bottom on the daily. Look for an upday tomorrow!

Edit #5: a quadruple touch of the $79.00 mark. Bad news. She won't be able to hold it this time. In Dow Theory they call this the "Descending Triangle." The thing shouts that $75 is in the cards.

[B.J]

Newborn, I can see you're having a rough day. I would set a price alert and step away from the monitor for a while

No kidding... it works for me.

[New-born baby]

Thanks. I needed that.

Newborn, I can see you're having a rough day. I would set a price alert and step away from the monitor for a while

No kidding... it works for me.

Thanks BJ. I needed that!

[spikefader]

Newborn,

Sorry KBH is squeezin' you like this. This is the type of move one must endure if you don't set stops. If it's hurtin' too much, you've got too much $$ in it. It's VERY hard to make a rationale decision once you're hurtin'. I really believe that if you're not going to use stops, the size of the position has to be such that it's not going to hurt and give you stress, and heart attacks when it breaks support. And if you're going to increase size and play a technical game, then you've got to have a technical place for a stop that is going to protect your capital. Looking at the chart it's looking aweful to me. This is just my perspective, and I am wrong plenty of times. The market will do what it wants to despite channel analysis, and it might well do that tomorrow. All I can do is control my entry and exit. If I do that, then I don't have to worry. You are in a different place than I. You chose no stop. So you've got to be prepared to feel the pain if she slides to 72 tomorrow, busts the channel with force, and slides agonizingly all the way to a gap fill of 59.20. Will it happen? God knows. Could it happen? Yes. You've seen it happen plenty of times. The way to avoid such pain is to control and limit your losses. You predefine what pain you will feel. You draw a line in the sand, and you celebrate when you trade your plan. Either way, win or lose, you are trading with discipline. And it matters not what your preacher friends think of you for it. Trading is a solo game typically. Others aren't at your level of trading maturity. And may not be prepared to cut a loss as easily as you. If performance counts with your buddies, then show them that to be consistantly good you've got to know when to run. As of today, to me, and maybe not to others, the chart sucks. I'm a picky trader, and I cut losses short. I do that for a reason. Others don't, and they do that for a reason. All you have to do is work out the type of trading that suites your style.

Oh, and remember the time I was warning about the $CDW chart. Well, after my warning the bull stepped up to the plate and it rallied 4 points! So any caution my chart speaks to me could/might/will change the minute the KBS bull steps up to the plate. No one knows when that will be. Could be after earnings and the thing explodes up to 100 overnight. Might be after a channel test. And if you're really concerned about the downside, please hedge with out of the money puts or something. That way if it drops like a knife you'll make some money for very little outlay. I would recommend this for any open longs in KBH now. Think of it as insurance

[df21084]

Another question for spikefader

Hi spikefader,

I have yet another question. Using QuoteTraker, do you know how to set an alert for a stock if the money flow index hits 70? Can it even be done?

I like your advice regarding the PSAR trending up and the MFI reaching 70 for a nice easy buy signal. But I can't sit and stare at charts all day. LOL!!

I was just wondering.

Thanks.

[spikefader]

Hi spikefader,

I have yet another question. Using QuoteTraker, do you know how to set an alert for a stock if the money flow index hits 70? Can it even be done?

I like your advice regarding the PSAR trending up and the MFI reaching 70 for a nice easy buy signal. But I can't sit and stare at charts all day. LOL!!

I was just wondering.

Thanks.

Hey df21084. QT doesn't currently have alerts for indicators. The historical charts need to be manually refreshed anyway. I'm sure one day QT will get indicator alerts for their intraday charts; just a matter of time I think. But the beauty of this hourly historical chart setup is the relatively slow movement in that money flow index indicator. And you only want to take it when the hourly bar closes so you know the money flow reading isn't going to change on you. So you could probably get away with checking it manually every 2 hours as it's approching 70, then every hour when it's really close. And in case it makes a quick move, you could set a price alert to be emailed to you (QT does this) so that you could check the state of the money flow after that big price move (the theory being a fast move might well cause money flow index to jump) or alternatively you can set QT volume alerts (see Column Alert) to alert you when a certain amount of volume has traded that would affect money flow.

So there's a couple of indirect ways to alert you to factors that might influence the money flow index you're trying to monitor. I don't know of any other resource 'out there' that would do money flow index alerts, but if someone out there knows about one, speak up!

[spikefader]

Newborn! Your KBH 'situation' got me thinkin' tonight about the count and I thought I'd chart it for you. So check it out brother!

Now the count might be wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the monthly. KBH is still in a 3, and you'll know when it's finished, because 4 will appear. But we are owed a 4 then a 5th up. So I'm thinking worst case for you, 3 is over, there will be a correction to complete 4, probably 77ish give or take a couple points, then the 5th should come. And best case for you is 3 isn't over yet and this is just a test of price support areas before new highs.

I'll do the daily next, which is showing that it's in a 'c' correction to around 77ish too! But here is the monthly:

[spikefader]

Daily KBH count recent impulse:

[spikefader]

Oh, and just in review, if you wanted to know THE SMART entry this year, it was the C entry I called back in April pre-split here here and here: Another example of trade the chart and not what you feel.