Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

**New-born baby** · 08-04-2005, 07:48 AM

Thanks, Spike

Thanks for the nice charting. It helps to see what the expert thinks.

My plan (subject to a gut check): should the $79.19 support fail, I'll dump and short and equal amount of KBH down to $77-75-. The chart says $75- is in the cards. Then cover and rebuy my position when the chart says the correction is over.

Frankly, if KBH doesn't open lower (like yesterday), it may survive this "c" correction (just based on TOL's good news). I give that about a 20% chance (off the top of my head). I am expecting a lower open, a quick dump down to a certain low, a temporary bounce back, and then a retest of the opening low, which IMO will not hold--just like it hasn't held the last three days. Then it will be a matter of time (days) to $75 or even a channel entry at $73 or lower.

Insane? Comments?

+)

Always looking for the Smart entry, but I'm not smart enough to find it!

EDIT: in premarket, both TOL and KBH are opening lower.

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 09:57 AM

I honestly wouldn't be shorting this one...especially given the gap down to a potential c area on the daily. Now if that c were to fail, that's a valid setup, but do you want to do that on a monthly chart that is owed a bigger 5th? I don't think so. Perhaps wisdom would suggest that after an error one should step aside to recompose, and self-enforced cooling off period. Don't compound the mistake by trying to 'get it back'. The group and sector are hot, so you want to short others imho.

I have a gut feeling that should you exit down here, you'll be exiting just when others are buying the 'c' and you'll watch in frustration if she takes off with impulses from that 'c'.

And besides, currently you are down, what 4.6% currently? 4% is what 'many' pros say to limit as your max pain on any one trade. That % is still 'respectable' (even though I prefer to recommend them tighter haha)

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 10:11 AM

Newborn, in the passage of time, you will come to see that this scenario is just another learning experience for you. Consider it as part of your University education fees. You will grow from it; you will see the mistake/s you made; you will see how emotion may have influenced your thinking; you will modify your future trading; and the goal will be to master all your emotions in order that pure charting and r/r logic can triumph. Success IS possible, if one has the will to do it; and I know you do.

Bottom line is plan the trade and trade the plan.

Best to ya NB! And all you newbies out there, learn from someone elses mistakes and save yourselves the heartache!

**Thomrich** · 08-04-2005, 02:06 PM

Greetings Spike,

Concerning a past profile,KCS,it was setting up nice ,and you wanted to keep an eye on it for the perfect entry.I happened to grab a few shares back in June in the 14.90 range,from what I anticipated a breakout of a trading range.

At your convienence would you do a chart analysis,as where a good target would be,since you spotted it originally,I hope you may have jumped in.

BTW exited ERF from 38.40 at 42.

I know you dont trade pinkies,but Kurt Wulff from Mcdep is calling COSWF "if you could own only one",I value his opinion in energy,so Im moving there.Having a hard time getting chart data,since its a pink sheet.

cordially Tom

PS EENC seems to be forming something interesting,not sure if its bullish,but it looks similar to a prelude to the last move up.

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 02:53 PM

Tomrich! Awesome work with KCS. Man what a chart. I just looked at all the previous charts I've posted for it. C entry is magic ain't it. I just looked at the weekly channel for the last 3 years and I was about to say target the upper channel of 22.20 and rising, but maybe that's premature, considering this monthly chart:

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 02:57 PM

Tomrich,
Is this COSWF:

http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javacharts.jsp?symbol=COSWF

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 03:05 PM

EENC alert set for the minor channel long.

**diogenes** · 08-04-2005, 05:12 PM

If you happen to be taking requests, then what do you think of OSG?

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by diogenes

If you happen to be taking requests, then what do you think of OSG?

Love it. Now you've just got to find the perfect entry for it

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 05:49 PM

OSG hourly buy signal with psar and money flow today.

**spikefader** · 08-04-2005, 05:51 PM

OSG: On the daily, big channel turn up from the March highs. Green light to take the closing price long, or tomorrow's intraday pivot. The stop is the tricky part. I'll watch this tomorrow and see if I can find a pattern worth entering on.

**diogenes** · 08-04-2005, 05:56 PM

Great reply!

Originally posted by spikefader

OSG: On the daily, big channel turn up from the March highs. Green light to take the closing price long, or tomorrow's intraday pivot. The stop is the tricky part. I'll watch this tomorrow and see if I can find a pattern worth entering on.

Great. I will make sure to take a look if you do.

Anyway, thanks...now time to look into CDE (well for me).

**Thomrich** · 08-04-2005, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

Tomrich,
Is this COSWF:
http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javac...p?symbol=COSWF

Greetings,

Obviously I didnt try very hard,as you found it in a jiffy.Thank you.

Concerning KCS,it was luck on my part,you saw the potential.Your skills are impressive,ever consider a consult service?I'd be in line for sure.Kurt Wulff charges 6K per year to get his analysis immediate,and by the time it hits the free section,20% moves are the norm,I think you could compete very well.

As always thanks,

cordially Tom

**spikefader** · 08-05-2005, 02:03 AM

Originally posted by spikefader

Look for the ABC and play the C long is the plan I'd draw up. And if it gives you a purple channel long day first, take it long there, and exit on the B completion, and wait for the C to go long again.

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http://img309.imageshack.us/img309/8089/kospjuly235jg.jpg

lol Runner, did you see KOSP. It was a very short 'c' and boom, it took off today!

**spikefader** · 08-05-2005, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by Thomrich

Greetings,
Obviously I didnt try very hard,as you found it in a jiffy.Thank you.
Concerning KCS,it was luck on my part,you saw the potential.Your skills are impressive,ever consider a consult service?I'd be in line for sure.Kurt Wulff charges 6K per year to get his analysis immediate,and by the time it hits the free section,20% moves are the norm,I think you could compete very well.
As always thanks,
cordially Tom

You're welcome. And thanks. Consulting - could be quite a satisfying venture. I might well do that one day.