Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
One more idea while Im gettin on with imageshack

One of Kurt Wulffs US trusts is having BR selling 8million units for 15.45.It pays currently around 8% distribution,and no hedges in place.


With CL above 60,and NG over 8?This could be a nice opportunity.BR still owns 40% I think of all units,so Im not sure the reason for the sell,but Kurt Wulff has not mentioned a sell alert for it yet.

Chart looks promising?

[URL=http://img150.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pbt2zn.png][IMG]http://imhttp://img150.imageshack.us/img150/2806/pbt2zn.pngg150


cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

My apoligies,

http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/2806/pbt2zn.png

cordially Tom,
tried to get them to load auto.

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
As an instructional piece,at your leisure,would you look at SNDK?

Sure. It's a good one to review. I've looked at this several times in this thread.

Posted about bullishness here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=976

Then posted about profit-taking

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=7870&postcount=1035

And 12 days later when a massive selloff occurred. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1144

Today the weekly looks bullish to me; done a great job getting through resistance. Not sure how long the impulse up will last though.


a pullback to the daily channel 33.50 and rising is a good play I think. Or just wait for gap support long at 30.97.

[spikefader]

...LEXR,which is close to being stopped out...
It gapped up recently,and appears to be hitting an upper channel.
Does this fit a likely short,with a gap fill in mind as a target?The volume seems to be sputtering here.If I could post a chart directly without resizing,and linking to imageshack I would to illustrate.

I dont know how you get your charts to load up here,Ill keep at it,and figure it out one day.

cordially Tom

Yeah LEXR not responding to the channel long I posted here about http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=485
and in fact has traded below that channel long day, so I'm no longer bullish on it. There was a channel turn down from the channel long day actually, so there is reason to be bearish on it. Failed channel long with turn down. The weekly channel from the bottom is a big one, so there's plenty of room for it to drop. If 4.73 fails, there is a likelihood it will fall fast to gap support of 4.08 and it may even want to fill the gap.

I remember the bullish gap projection target to over 7.25 prices was one of the reasons I liked it in the first place. And in most cases gap projections are met within a few months, but they can drag on for years before they are met. This might be one of them. Daily money flow looks alright but weekly is just now getting back to zero from being red. There is also an ominous looking SHS potential on the daily that would target 3.10ish, and there's your gap fill. The neckline is yet to break, but it's close.

[spikefader]

oh, and for charts, I use http://www.imageshack.us/ to load my charts to. Then I copy and paste the 'Hotlink for forums (1)' link that it generates into my Mr.M post and it auto loads when you submit your post here.

[spikefader]

My apoligies,

http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/2806/pbt2zn.png

cordially Tom,
tried to get them to load auto.

PBT: Wait for the weekly channel long around 14.20ish (daily channel long is a little higher than that) and it'll be worth looking for a real pure pattern I think. But:

Two concerning factors;
1) is the weekly money flow - it's been so strong the last 2 1/2 years, and now has just entered red territory, and no zero line reject which bulls would hope to see.
2) The weekly shows a possible 5 wave move, with the 5th being truncated followed by that sharp drop last 2 weeks.

Those 2 things would have you looking for a pure intraday pattern on the channel long day (i.e. the pattern has to be really good and pure looking), and I don't think it's worth giving it much 'wiggle room' (i.e tight stop and very good r/r and move stop to even asap).

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Thanks for the input Spike,its cool to watch as your analysis keeps getting better,Ive noticed the addition of PSAR and moneyflow into the charts.

I will likely be stopped out of LEXR monday,but Ill take a lucky break if it happens.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings,

Thanks for the input Spike,its cool to watch as your analysis keeps getting better,Ive noticed the addition of PSAR and moneyflow into the charts.

I will likely be stopped out of LEXR monday,but Ill take a lucky break if it happens.

cordially Tom

Thnx! Yes, money flow is real interesting and the psar well, I'm not sure if it's just adding too much! ha But I think it's a good trend spotting indicator, certainly on an hourly chart. Those two together seem to work real well for MM picks to catch the next wave of $$ flowing in.

Good luck this week!

[Runner]

Spike, have you tried PSAR for shorting?

[spikefader]

Spike, have you tried PSAR for shorting?

Yes, although I found it worked better for futures both long and short. One of my older systems use PSAR and stochastics. Spot the new trend, wait for a stochastics pullback entry on a shorter time frame. You used to could catch 10 points in ES a few years ago when they traded well. ER and YM and currencies produce better moves these days.

[New-born baby]

Any advice?

Spike,
What would you say about EENC, KBH and BMHC these days?
And will the market rebound tomorrow, or are we in a definite bear that will pull the Dow down to 10,000?

Thanks!

[spikefader]

Spike,
What would you say about EENC, KBH and BMHC these days?
And will the market rebound tomorrow, or are we in a definite bear that will pull the Dow down to 10,000?

Thanks!

Just looked at the weekly EENC and notice that upper major channel tag that signaled profit-taking. And that's what they've done. How long will they do it? I don't know. There is a minor weekly long last week, and I'd be bullish on it while that 22.59 low holds. Below it, I wouldn't be long.

Looking at the weekly, KBH acted VERY bullish in June, and the channel action indicates a potential for new highs, but it's obviously intent on searching for support first. Last week's volume wasn't exceedingly high. It was higher than average, but not maxed out. The minor weekly channel is still untouched, currently 70, so maybe it wants that before a bounce. The gap under 60 is the thing that throws the element of doubt in there. Especially considering it wasn't massive volume to say it's a runaway. Let's face it, it's just one big guess as to where the money will come back in.

Yep, put options on the break of 79.19 would have been a fabulous play, and I'm not saying I told ya so, just reinforcing that you should have been more defensive with your position than you were. But I don't want to be critical; just helpful. When it was -4% it was still 'reasonable' loss. Today got as bad as -12.8% from your entry, which is just infuriating I'm sure. And hey, I've made the same mistake many times before. This time for you, full of optimism, hot MM pick when he's on a roll, and boom, just when he thinks the bubble can't possible burst right this second it does or apparently has started....and as with all bubbles that burst, it's sudden and unexpected. Just like the other picks of his that have been poorly timed. His picks chase momo, and sometimes the momo is going to disappear, but that's cool with him and fits his plan. His protection is diversification and patience. My protection is stops. Yours should depend on the allocation size you have. If it's heavy, then use stops or buy puts when support fails. It's a lesson; more fees to the teacher. It'll sink in for you and you'll be covered before this type of thing happens again.

If I've crossed the line of 'going easy' while you're in pain, I'm sorry dude. You've been busy and you probably have gone over all this anyway and don't need yet another reminder.

But best to you Newborn. It's all good All things work together..... you know the rest.

[New-born baby]

No problemo

Spike,
No problemo. Any and all sermons appreciated here. You can say "I told you so" as often as you like, and I'd agree with you. My problem: I have never bought any puts before. I have only sold covered calls. Yeah, I'm a newborn alright. Too late for puts now.

Something is wrong that they are selling EENC at all. Price of oil hits new highs; EENC is pulling back like somebody pulled a gun on it. Other Cans are making new highs every day; EENC is pulling back. It found support today at the 50 day; we'll see if it holds. But EENC pays a monthly dividend, so it pays a man to hold it. The price of oil isn't going to burst anytime soon (or at least, I don't think it will ). (Famous last words . . . just check MM's statement about the housing market).

As for KBH, no sweat. Like I said, it isn't my money. I've lost money in the market before. And the Lord has given it back to me. You may put me in the Greenspan category,(i.e. delusional --he says there never was a housing bubble), but I really am not sweating.

But several lessons have been learned (I hope).

Thanks Spike!

I think KBH's pullback has been excentuated by insider selling. Reminds me of NGPS's violent descent last January.

[Runner]

Yes, although I found it worked better for futures both long and short. One of my older systems use PSAR and stochastics. Spot the new trend, wait for a stochastics pullback entry on a shorter time frame. You used to could catch 10 points in ES a few years ago when they traded well. ER and YM and currencies produce better moves these days.

Thanks for the reply Spike

[dmk112]

NB,

I'm trying to make some positive out of KBH for ya... I think tomorrow (or next couple of days) will be KEY... good luck buddy