Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

ANy thoughts Spike on this chart here

http://img270.imageshack.us/img270/1792/xto1zr.png

Smarter money than me bought at 26,but Im wondering if an anticipated wedge break,and upper channel target are worth a buck or two.Its near it 52 week high,but in a strong sector.

Your thoughts on an entry,as I hope to bring something to the table for others to profit from.As with ELN,I could be completely wrong again in what Im seeing.So far my 8.04 is still good,I set a stop at LOD.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

I was trying to get an overall picture of the market and did a few charts (below) then somehow ended up doing Google research on economic fundamentals, where stocks fit in, where gold fits in, where bonds fit in....and I've run out of steam and time, but here's a few interesting quotes I found during my research. I'll just use quotations and let you decide whether they are overly gloom and doomy, or close to the mark. I for one am concerned about the future of the U.S. economy, and I'm wondering how long we've got until there's a meltdown. Anyway, here's the first quote, and they flow on from there.

"The most important market in the world is the US dollar market because this is the world’s reserve currency. More prices throughout the world are quoted in dollars than any other currency so when the day arrives that confidence is lost in our phony currency, it is difficult to see how our ever system of ever expanding bubbles can endure. Our currency is fundamentally a most unstable measure of value because this unit of measure is constantly changing" Jay Taylor, Editor of J. Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks newsletter.


(reference unknown)

"So the dollar is a phony and unreliable measure of wealth and its creation at will out of thin air leads to much mal investment and indebtedness that most certainly is leading us to an ultimate collapse of our monetary system. Mal investment leads to a far less than optimal application of scarce resources in our economy. And indebtedness, which is growing much, much faster than income will ultimately suck our economy into a deflationary black hole."

"When the dollar goes, the bond market is likely to collapse, especially given the fact that a full 42% of our U.S. Treasuries are now owned by foreign creditors. And when bonds fall and interest rates begin to rise, that is likely to be the deflation trigger for the remaining equity bubble as well as the housing and debt bubbles overall. All these markets are linked together, but the demise of the dollar is key."

"Debt is in the process of growing like a cancer that at some point cannot help but snuff out the fiat currency lie."

"When that day arrives, paper money will become worthless because of the inability of debtors to meet their obligations. That will lead to a loss of confidence in paper money....But those with gold should be in a much better position to survive than those without it."

"We buy gold because it is real asset money. Not liability money. As such its value will survive when liability money defaults from bank to bank just like thousands of dominoes lined up next to each other. It is an insurance policy which tragically 99% of all Americans do not hold." Jay Taylor.

"The truth of the matter is that once the foreign holders of our dollars, bonds, and stocks—and they are becoming a larger and larger percentage of the ownership of our financial assets—lose confidence and decide to sell those assets for whatever reason, the Fed is not going to be able to pump enough money supply into the system to offset what is going out the door, because as you get a big wave of selling from foreign securities holders, it is going drop asset values sharply lower. They will be wiping out trillions of dollars of financial wealth." Dr. Robert McHugh

I think the Fed is very concerned about the real estate bubble, which ironically was created by them. I think they are concerned about the health of the banking system above all else. A lot of banks and other financial institutions are loaded with mortgage backed securities. The Fed has quietly gone into these banks and told them they need to lighten up on these mortgage backed and trust preferred securities. In order for this to happen, the Fed needs a bond market that is rising, so that interest rates stay low, so that banks that put this paper on their books in this low interest rate environment can get out with gains, or at least break even, so they don’t jeopardize their capital as they dump this paper" Dr. Robert McHugh, Banker, Chartist, Gold Bull

Another interesting read for anyone who made it this far is http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ri...her042505.html

Oh, and here are some charts that'll be food for thought:


Good trades all, and make 'em 100% disciplined and restricted within the bounds of dualing fear and optimism

[Lyehopper]

SPIKE, YOU'RE FREAKIN ME OUT DUDE!!!!lol

Hey Spike, I started trading stocks in 1988, I remember my father-in-law after "Black Monday" in 87 crying about his losses. In 1989 I read this book called "Blood in the streets .... The great Depression of 1990" .... It kinda freaked me out then, as I had just started investing in stocks and had a new buisness (less than 4 years old and was in debt) But being the bull-headed SOB that I am, I kept investing .... and kept working my a$$ off .... and kept borrowing and my buisness has grown and I've prospered through good and bad economies .... thru 9/11/01 till now .... and my buisness is more profitable than ever (and my portfolio's ain't lookin too shabby either) and my debt is low. All that BS said .... I am concerned about the dollar too, economists have been calling for this "crash" for 20-30 years ..... It indeed might be a good time to be buying gold, (or gold stocks). Good post!

[IIC]

I have a question...And I'm serious...What is the BIG deal with gold anyway???...Since the price was not restricted...late '70's...I never could figure out what the attraction was???...Only that there is not really that much of it around...Supply/Demand.

Want to get Defensive?...I'll go with Water...Does life a whole lot better than gold IMO

[New-born baby]

40 miles

I have a question...And I'm serious...What is the BIG deal with gold anyway???...Since the price was not restricted...late '70's...I never could figure out what the attraction was???...Only that there is not really that much of it around...Supply/Demand.

Want to get Defensive?...I'll go with Water...Does life a whole lot better than gold IMO

IIC,
Don't you know?? One ounce of gold can be stretched out into a thread 40 miles long. That's why gold is valuable. It is the most mallable substance on earth. Great to solder computer board connections!

Truthfully, if the US fiat dollar collapses, so does every single currency in the world. And yes, I do think it will collapse sometime. But when it does, it seems to me that it will spark a global economic crisis such as has never been witnessed upon this earth. That will possibly be the catalyst for the ascension of AntiChrist to power. And that is no cause for a Christian to break a sweat because we know that every Word of God is true, and that every word will be fulfilled. You cannot stop the Will of God.

As a result, I don't own any gold. God has promised to feed His children. He'll make a way for His children. In addition, if AntiChrist is revealed, the believer is going to be raptured first, so he won't be here for the carnage anyway.

But I do like your Mr.Breakout pick of SWWN!

[Runner]

My simple question is can anyone tell me the value of a dollar bill compared to 10 years ago?

[New-born baby]

SImple

My simple question is can anyone tell me the value of a dollar bill compared to 10 years ago?

Well, I haven't looked up the 10 year value just yet, but the 1974 dollar is worth 24 cents in 2005. Our friend Mr. Greenspan admits that there is no way to keep inflation from eating up the savings of people once a nation leaves the gold standard. So don't expect to keep your money's value. Cannot be done.

[spikefader]

Spike's Sunday Night's Ascending Triangle Play.

Buy 5.05 and target 6.00. Stop 4.95.
Risking 2.9% to target 18%; R/R is 9.5



Although the 1st reaction high is only an intraday drop of $0.50 I still think it counts

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Well after losing 3 online poker tournaments and reading Spikes post,Im completely depressed.

My main focus for investing is to provide as much money for my daughter who is now 7.Was hoping to have a nice chunk of cash for her when shes an adult.The thought of inflation eating it all away sucks.

Im not convinced Gold would help if things get as bad as they look.Cant eat it,drink it,worthless unless someone will pay you for it,but with what?Worthless dollars?I realise its very complicated,but IMO a collapse described as such makes anything but food water and shelter worthless.Get out your garden hoe and rain bucket friends.

BTW NBB,its amazing how end time scenarios are coming together.Just 10 years ago during the boom everyone scoffed at the thought of financial crisis,now were all waiting for it.A surprise attack on 9/11 by a group of men that could be a softball team has cost the world billions.

Id have a drink,but I quit,so its off to bed and pray for tomorrow.

cordially Tom

[skiracer]

I agree with Doug about the water. If things were to ever go that far south fresh water would be a big deal.
I mentioned in an earlier post on my thread about Hubbert's Curve. I guess no one went to Google and picked up on it. If you do the article that I'm talking about is called
"It's the oil, stupid (Hubbert's Curve and World War 111). Kind of radical but true an when the chips are really down what path would we take to preserve our quality of life? It's 13 pages long but a good read.
I can't see the world financial leaders letting it go to the point of sheer demise, chaos, an anarchy. I do believe that the whole ball of wax is on thin ice with the credit and debt situation being as large as it is in our country and the world. Our answer to that has always been to start another war. We just need a decent reason to rationalize it. Energy seems a good enough one. Not condoning war but that's what we do better than anyone else.

[mimo_100]

I agree with Doug about the water. If things were to ever go that far south fresh water would be a big deal.
I mentioned in an earlier post on my thread about Hubbert's Curve. I guess no one went to Google and picked up on it. If you do the article that I'm talking about is called
"It's the oil, stupid (Hubbert's Curve and World War 111). Kind of radical but true an when the chips are really down what path would we take to preserve our quality of life? It's 13 pages long but a good read.
I can't see the world financial leaders letting it go to the point of sheer demise, chaos, an anarchy. I do believe that the whole ball of wax is on thin ice with the credit and debt situation being as large as it is in our country and the world. Our answer to that has always been to start another war. We just need a decent reason to rationalize it. Energy seems a good enough one. Not condoning war but that's what we do better than anyone else.

I did a Google swearch and could not find the link you are talking about. Could you provide it?

[New-born baby]

Spike's Sunday Night's Ascending Triangle Play.

Buy 5.05 and target 6.00. Stop 4.95.
Risking 2.9% to target 18%; R/R is 9.5



Although the 1st reaction high is only an intraday drop of $0.50 I still think it counts

Thanks, Spike. I'll be watching this one today.

[skiracer]

Spike,
Nice pick. I really like the whole setup an am just waiting for it to hit support. Great fundamentals also. Just got done checking it out. Looks great after the bounce off support line.

[New-born baby]

Kbh

Spike,
How do you see KBH for tomorrow (Tuesday)? There is an ascending triangle, but the RSI and CFM are weak, as well as the MACD. Then you add into the equation that today's candlestick looks like a possible trend reversal, and I don't know what to expect.

What sayest thou?

[dmk112]

Spike,
How do you see KBH for tomorrow (Tuesday)? There is an ascending triangle, but the RSI and CFM are weak, as well as the MACD. Then you add into the equation that today's candlestick looks like a possible trend reversal, and I don't know what to expect.

What sayest thou?

I would call that more a bear flag then a triangle bottom...IMO