Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

I am looking to take a long on PVX,as my chart shows,a recent channel long touch,within a long term channel.Also you can see it has dipped below the 50dma,which it doesnt seem to stray b elow for too long.

A recent dist ex-date caused the selloff,and my analysis shows 9.90
monday,with a rise to the mid 10s before the next dist payment.

I see volume support at 9.50,so a spike down to there may be worth a shot,although shares on a dip like that are snatched up very quick,leaving me sometimes with no purchase at all on a AON limit,or very few bought on a regular limit,not worth trading.

Your opinion Spike would be always appreciated.

http://img199.exs.cx/img199/1162/pvxlong6uy.png

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Spike...I know you are more of a technician than I...but I am short term bearish...I have 3 days to analyze...but I don't see these O/S conditions as letting up soon. Maybe brief bounces???

BTW...When you turn Bullish...what time frame are you usually looking at? I rarely look past a few days to a week myself...at least in the past year...Thx

You know me ....... change stance quickly. I really do let Vector direct me. Time frame could be a day, to weeks, depending on what it does. I do use charts to formulate a bigger objective and try to get a road map happening, but Vector rules, since I'm trying to nail turns as early as possible. The idea is to nail a turn that develops into a trend. The chop can only annoy for so long, then a trend reward follows. Nail the turn and you maximize the reward. Very often that very turn will be in the face of a good chart indication, later proving that the market acted completely independantly of any great looking chart I might see. This is why I'm very happy to admit I was wrong about a particular chart and that market forces always dictate, and one should never underestimate overriding market forces.

[spikefader]

@Thomrich: I saw the second chart you posted and it looked fine. Glad you worked it out - thanks all that responded!

@b_cadvantag: I've spoken on and off in this thread about what I use so do a site search on the word 'vector', which is what I decided to call my self-designed leading indicator, and you'll find some descriptions of it, but nothing that actually specifies it. I use a single and easy to interpret 'indicator'. Not a traditional indicator you see these days, but one that I developed and have chosen not to share. I'm happy to share the reading; just not what it is.

As for it's accuracy, it is like every other indicator out there. It gives false readings and is proven wrong. But I don't expect it to have a high percentage accuracy. Tight stops keep me out of trouble in that regard. What I do expect is it will nail a turn for me that will develop into a trend that will lead to profits that exceed all the choppy false-start tiny losses or early exit profits that you've seen me post in this thread with QQQQ trades. It's just a matter of time and it will reward my patience. I'll eventually nail another turn and get a trend ride. I'm currently long and maybe it'll be The One, and maybe it won't be. A potential 'c' long entry exists in the Nasdaq weekly chart as I type. But it's only potential and it might be that it's not ripe yet and needs another couple weeks down first. Channels point to the down potential, but channels aren't the be-all either. As long as I don't fall in love with a market view then I avoid exposure to the horrors of the unexpected, while still "being in it to win it" as far as attempting to ride a wonderful trend in one direction.

Best to ya.

[grebnet]

Pque

Spike any thoughts on PQUE ??? I like the looks of it ,currently pulling back a bit. Thanks

[spikefader]

Hey spike can I get your read on AMGN, trying to maybe find a biotech.
Thanks
TJk

Bearish right now.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Glad to see the Bull suit back on. That bear suit was pretty rough on the market.

Yes, but it has a potential to get worse. Imagine if the last 2 years move was taken back! If the 'c' entry fails, that's what could happen. I'm bullish but when I turn bearish again I'll be strongly warning folks on the long side. This price objective is a worry to bulls. A run up in volatility usually coincides with some serious selling.

[Websman]

Yes, but it has a potential to get worse. Imagine if the last 2 years move was taken back! If the 'c' entry fails, that's what could happen. I'm bullish but when I turn bearish again I'll be strongly warning folks on the long side. This price objective is a worry to bulls. A run up in volatility usually coincides with some serious selling.

That doesn't sound to reasurring Spike...

[spikefader]

yes, Spike... PLEASE fix this %@!!&%* market for us!

LOL. Wish I could.

Right now the market reminds me of that scene in "Finding Nemo" where all those pelagic fish have been netted by the fishing trawler, and Nemo wants to risk life and limb to go into the net to tell the other fish to all swim down to work as a team and save themselves. Nemo's dad lets him go in there and Nemo and Dori successfully convey the message to all the 'dumb' tuna to swim down....they all swim down and they snap the wooden 'arm' that supports the net, and all the fish escape!

How does this relate to the market?? Well, the trawler is owned by a big hungry bear; all the fish in the net are bulls oblivious to their peril; and I want to be Nemo so I can tell all the fish to work as a team, swim together, and break the bearish net that's closing in around them. If the bulls can just buy the 'c' entry they'll swim to freedom!!!

[spikefader]

Greetings,

I am looking to take a long on PVX,as my chart shows,a recent channel long touch,within a long term channel.Also you can see it has dipped below the 50dma,which it doesnt seem to stray b elow for too long.

A recent dist ex-date caused the selloff,and my analysis shows 9.90
monday,with a rise to the mid 10s before the next dist payment.

I see volume support at 9.50,so a spike down to there may be worth a shot,although shares on a dip like that are snatched up very quick,leaving me sometimes with no purchase at all on a AON limit,or very few bought on a regular limit,not worth trading.

Your opinion Spike would be always appreciated.

http://img199.exs.cx/img199/1162/pvxlong6uy.png

cordially Tom

Looking at weekly charts for PWI, PVX and PBT, I'm thinking it's still too early to bite.

That was this post.
Today's chart shows that it is time. Go for it!

[spikefader]

PVX intraday. Perhaps go for neckline break of the inverted SHS. Or wait for double bottom.

[spikefader]

Spike any thoughts on PQUE ??? I like the looks of it ,currently pulling back a bit. Thanks

Long at 6.00ish perhaps....

[spikefader]

XING:
Another one of the 'careful she may drop' stocks. Could easily lose more than half its value.....

[spikefader]

PVX intraday. Perhaps go for neckline break of the inverted SHS. Or wait for double bottom.

Long 9.37. Stop 9.32.
EDIT: Out now. Wait for double bottom entry at 9.14 with tight stop. Caution longs: daily channel break.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
I entered PVX at 9.40,with the plan of exiting before next dist. over 10.00.Hoping history repeats itself.

Zica broke 4.00,just as you thought.Thanks for saving me alot of money.Are we witnessing a freefall to below 3.00 coming soon?

cordially your friend Tom

[jiesen]

XING:
Another one of the 'careful she may drop' stocks. Could easily lose more than half its value.....

Thanks for the heart attack, Spike!

The chart's always been scary for this one, but I have bought mainly for fundamental reasons, not technical:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=XING&annual

So I don't plan to sell for technical reasons either. If it goes back to 3, well, I'll just load up again, just like I did last time it was trading at 3. But I just can't see it selling for a $50M market cap again, when sales have gone from $30M to $300M now, so I'm not selling at $5. Profits are coming, and they will keep this sucker afloat despite all technical indications to the contrary.

Did the chart give a signal before XING went from $7 to $70 in one day?
How about when it went from .74 to $15 over a few months? I was holding it all the way up (and all the way back down to $6) and wish I could have just let it go then... but I still think it'll see $15 and above eventually.