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Spike, if the bear suit goes back on, what are your short picks?
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I'll do it at the close.Originally posted by dmk112
I'd highly recommend GM short at close.Originally posted by dmk112
XING is a good one too.
SPY of course.
BRCM looks weak with plenty of downside to a channel.
EBAY has significant channel break recently with channel short from the top in play; plenty of downside to a channel for that.
GOOG will likely fill the gap, with a channel short from early Feb still in play.
I still like MACR short (mentioned that in IIC's thread I think), but it's a chase now.Comment
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I just changed my Avatar to a mild-mannered and completely unitimidating bear.
But don't be fooled! This is one of those times where you should never underestimate the quiet, whimpy, doctor-looking, that-bear-wouldn't-hurt-a-fly looking bear. It's actually a maniacal, pathelogical sociopath bear, that will use chloroform to knock you out while you're unsuspecting, tie you up, lock you in a cellar, shave yer head, pierce your crown jewels, then torture you over a 6 month period.
Careful out there; it's a jungle.
D:Comment
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Maybe you should sell your bear on Ebay. He might bring a big price.Originally posted by spikefaderComment
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I have to agree with you that today had a chilling affect about it. Can't remember when I saw such wide swings in stocks and the indices and then to finish off the way it did.THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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Spike,
Can I get your thoughts on SIM, this thing can't seem to find a bottom, it broke 200 dma today, is it done or what?
On regression channels, OK so I click on the low and then drag to...?? The high? but then how will you know when the channel is broken as the channel will just keep moving higher and higher. Thanks!Comment
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OK, dmk112, on channels, here are some thoughts.
You drag the channel from the high or low you think is significant to the current day to see where price sits relative to the channels. Be sure to note how the channel actually reacts from its creation all the way to the current day. Learn to read how a channel acts relative to the price on the chart. Watch for channel touches, channel bounces, channel expansions (warning against the direction of the channel; i.e. lower channel hit with expansion is warning to longs, and upper channel hit with expansion, warning to bears), channel turn downs from lows (this is bearish), channel turn ups from highs (this is bullish).
On expansions, i.e. price hits a channel and it expands, this is a significant thing. Only one way to look at it. It is a warning against the bigger trend. But with a caveat. Say you've just seen a lower channel touch, you've spotted a double bottom intraday pattern, you enter long, but the daily channel has expanded, it's a caution long, right, so what am I doing long then? Should I get out? No. It is only a caution to the long side. Don't exit a potential great entry just because the channel expands? Your long may still be proven right and price could really bounce hard from the channel hit. But at the same time, be prepared to take profits at a logical upper channel hit in the days ahead. And also, be prepared for your stop to be taken out. If you're terribly worried about it, move stop to break even quickly, or take profits at intraday R2. Walk away and look for another perfect entry.
Further, channel expansions can lead to very volatile moves up or down. It's like a rubber band; an expanding channel touch can stretch the band, and then boing, fire the long up like a rocket. OR the expansion can break the rubber band and the stock falls like a rock. It all depends on what the market wants to do with that critical point of the channel. Just be prepared for the move and use stops and targets accordingly.
View channel turn up from highs as a potentially bullish thing. In a strong market, when you have a bullish bias, then chase the turn ups. In a weak market and you're bearish, don't chase them. With channel turn downs, they can be chased in a weak market when you're bearish, but don't chase them when the market has you bullish. If you don't have a general market bias, then hesistate in chasing channel turn ups and downs. But in this thread, you can see many many examples of channel turn ups and downs that could have been successfully 'chased'. Just like there are many examples of channel longs and channel shorts that could have been traded.
But remember, channels are a tool. It's not the tool that makes the master. It's the master's ability to use the tool. So go and be a genius and effectively use the tool
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Ok, Thanks for the great response spike!
Now, what exactly is a "channel turn up"?
ON the chart you say "it seems it wants this low channel" is that because that is where the green and the pink intersect? If so, is that an entry?
Is there a tutorial I can find on this stuff b/c I don't wanna bug you on the board with all these questions, since this stuff is hard to grasp...Don't the channels change everyday?Comment
Hopefully that won't be for quite a while.
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