Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[dmk112]

Spike,

Also CHK is an oil that has been on my radar for some time...Where should I be looking ot get in this one? Thanks again.

[skiracer]

Thanks Spike.

[spikefader]

Spike, I know I'm learning...It seems that whenever I sell, it goes back up the next day, but if I don't it keeps going lower...i swear it's a conspiracy *they know everytime I make a trade* LOL

aren't we all learning! I know I am. I went through those same feelings as you, so I can definately relate. Keep at it bro! Here's a few thoughts that come to mind and no offence intended:

I love conspiracy theories as much as the next guy. But honestly, your problem isn’t that they’re out to get you; your problem is you’re out to get yourself. Your decisions are frustrating you. Emotion is clearly at play. You are probably 1) holding in hope, and 2) by admission, allowing yourself to ‘care’ emotionally about a stock’s price action after you exit a trade, i.e. look to be ‘proved’ wrong about your exit, which only reinforces to you why you should commit No. 1) again. It’s a vicious cycle. The problem with holding in hope is it exposes you to enormous % losses and the problem with allowing your exits to be proved wrong doesn’t help your future trading decisions. What happens after a trade is IRRELEVANT. It does not matter. Sure, look back and see where you could have learnt something to maybe add to your ‘system’ or trading rules, but don’t look back with regret, anger, frustration, fury or inadequacy. Strive to invest 0% emotion in your trading. Have your own reasons to create a plan for a trade, and execute it with no emotion; just do it. Then when you’re out, don’t worry about it. Up/down/sideways; it doesn’t matter to you. You traded your plan, took your profit, or loss, and moved on to new ground, new setups, and new opportunities. If you allow it to matter, it will destroy your routine and your confidence, and eventually your trading capital.

Let’s face it, we all strive to have some kind of repeatable methodology for trading, whether you call it a system or routine or whatever; whether based on fundamentals, or technicals or a combination of both. This is a good thing to strive for. Are you striving for this? If not, I encourage you to give some deep thought about what you are trying to accomplish and how you are trying to accomplish it. Perhaps you need to withdraw completely until you are very comfortable with your routine.

As long as your routine is strictly accountable and it maturely deals with both risk and money management, has an entry plan and an exit plan (losers and winners), and all that is compatible with your personality and amount of trading capital, then great. Unfortunately, we humans tend to think we are ready for things when we are not. When I was younger I thought I was ready to trade and was stupidly prepared to risk capital to prove to myself and others, and to the market, that I was smart enough to do it. I wasn’t ready. I wish I could make new or inexperienced traders understand that to be successful; one must be absolutely ready before they speculate with their fortunes and futures. It is very easy to lose money, big money, in the stock market. Imagine if you were stubbornly bullish in 2000 and on margin! The bubble bursting in 2000 is evidence that we need exit plans. Bursting stocks line Enron or ELN prove to us we need an exit plan, a hedging plan, or a broad diversification plan. That plan MUST be devoid of emotion and hindsight regret or you’ll chase your tail.

Best to ya’ll.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Also CHK is an oil that has been on my radar for some time...Where should I be looking ot get in this one? Thanks again.

Chase it at the intraday pivot or S1?? I am bullish on it. But r/r is important too. I like the other ones I posted a little more, but I expect this to move up too.

[dmk112]

Very good post Spike. I used to trade with the 7-8% loss (from WOM). I noticed that alot of times the 7 or 8 % point was hit and the stock would go back up. Therefore I thought that the system is faulty and the stop-losses are premature and not justified.

I then switched to a no stop system, i.e. only sell if it breaks major support, etc. All of the trades thus far I have been successul with (or maybe just lucky?). I was down on several stocks up to 15% and they came back for a gain of 20-25%. The problem with this system is that if support is 25% from your purchase price (e.g. 200 dma) once that price is hit it's hard to sell since your loss is so great so I decided to "hold it out". Since stocks naturally appreciate with time (ones with solid fundamentals) therefore sooner or later they will come back (right?).

The new system I'm now using is entering stocks on patterns (fib, channels, etc) and setting stops on the swing low of my entry therefore with a small loss %. We'll see how that will work, so far not too bad. Even though the market is not soo good.

[dmk112]

snip... But r/r is important too.

What is r/r?

Thanks

[spikefader]

Just took a long LGF 9.90. Weekly turn up, daily channel long and intraday pattern. Stop 9.89.

[spikefader]

re DHB long here out for a push earlier today. Next.

[spikefader]

Chase it (CHK) at the intraday pivot .......

Was a nice entry at the pivot today.

[spikefader]

What is r/r?
Thanks

risk reward ratio.

[spikefader]

Hey Bill......WCC: I am liking the action: weekly channel long recently. Today a bullish channel bust. But you weren't the early worm. Keep looking to be the early worm. Perhaps 29.00 gap support in the days to come....but today, I'd wait.

b_critical,
WCC: Today is a day to look to enter at gap fill/S2 zone. Just thought I'd give you heads up!

[b_critical]

Bought in at 28.65...lets see it ride

[spikefader]

Bought in at 28.65...lets see it ride

OK. Gap still hasn't filled - by one tick. I'm going to wait for the fill, and based on the pattern, I might be wise to wait and try for an inverted Head entry, which might turn out (or might not) closer to 28.00ish. I'll see how the pattern develops and decide when the time is right. Now, I think it's early to take it long.

[spikefader]

Notice a c entry on the Qs intraday.....

Go Mr. Bull.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

Concerning ZICA,seems to hold $4.00 stubbornly so far,and could be the start of a channel turn?Am I seeing this correctly?

cordially Tom