Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Runner]

Spike if you play low volume stocks, keep your eyes on FTK. Thing has been on fire.. It broke out of a nice flat base!!

[Lyehopper]

I'm wit cha Spike!

Lye; here's PARL food for thought:

Today reveals a channel turn up after that 'c' correction. Pretty good volume and nice bullish candle today.

That channel turn up is the green light for chasing the pivot 30.54 tomorrow. A stop under today's low is just over 4% risk. Initial conservative channel target is 39.00 and rising on the daily so that's roughly 28% reward, which makes the r/r 5.79, and if price movement works nicely in a wave formation, you'd be re retargeting to increase that 28%.

Strongly recommend stop to even after the first intraday higher high, since that larger weekly count is a 5 completion. That's what I'll be doin' anyway

http://img112.imageshack.us/img112/1047/parlaug116ir.jpg

Hey Spike,

Thanks again for the PARL TA... I'm holding a nice position, hope it takes on off too .... Thanks again .... YOU ARE HUGE!

Now I'm gonna throw some TA back your way. You ripped PACT "a new one" yesterday.lol .... All that bearish TA heard, seen and well noted .... Feed back please on the following. I won't include charts as you don't really need my charts.lol

Here's what I see in PACT .... Ran Fibonacci retracements since the breakout on 11/17/04 .... PACT has retraced to at least the 61.8% line or further with each run attempt. But at the same time it has developed a symmetrical triangle. It is achieving lower highs and higher lows till now it is being squeezed tightly at the end of this triangular formation. The Bollinger bands have just confirmed a very tight squeeze last week (on 8/2/05) of only about a 0.42 gap .... that's TIGHT. coming out of this "squeeze" it seems to want to move upward and the volume has increased nicely since 8/3/05, I think I'm seeing (some)accumulation .... PACT is also holding above it's 200 DMA and right on the 50 DMA .... Looking at a weekly chart PACT's TRIX signal is just about to cross upward signaling the beginning of a long term upward trend .... (KEY BULLISH SIGN) Studying it's daily chart, PACT's TRIX signal crossed upward on 8/2/05 .... The other bullish indicator to me is the "flag pole" developed back in Nov/Dec 2004. Strong upward move then followed by this triangle or "flag" pendant. When PACT does break from this formation it's move will most likely will be in the SAME direction as the LAST "big" break (upward) .... The only negatives I see are it's high short interest. Could be a blessing or a curse and Chaikin money flow shows steady distribution .... Either way up or down .... PACT will be breaking out of this narrow range very soon. I'm long PACT, hoping to see a NTES repeat next week. These China-techs can bust out like a rodeo bull.
~Lye

[IIC]

Spike...your periodic WITS analysis would be appreciated...I'm getting tired of this...avg buy 14.49...4/04 and 6/04...I feel like I have too much tied up...But I've had others like that; HANS sold at 25...LCAV at about 22...MIDD at 25.96...They all take off after I sell...I made decent $$$ on each...But it coulda been a whole lot better...PATIENCE PATIENCE PATIENCE on the long termers...Thx

[spikefader]

Hey Spike,

Thanks again for the PARL TA... I'm holding a nice position, hope it takes on off too .... Thanks again .... YOU ARE HUGE!

Now I'm gonna throw some TA back your way. You ripped PACT "a new one" yesterday.lol .... All that bearish TA heard, seen and well noted .... Feed back please on the following. I won't include charts as you don't really need my charts.lol

Here's what I see in PACT .... Ran Fibonacci retracements since the breakout on 11/17/04 .... PACT has retraced to at least the 61.8% line or further with each run attempt. But at the same time it has developed a symmetrical triangle. It is achieving lower highs and higher lows till now it is being squeezed tightly at the end of this triangular formation. The Bollinger bands have just confirmed a very tight squeeze last week (on 8/2/05) of only about a 0.42 gap .... that's TIGHT. coming out of this "squeeze" it seems to want to move upward and the volume has increased nicely since 8/3/05, I think I'm seeing (some)accumulation .... PACT is also holding above it's 200 DMA and right on the 50 DMA .... Looking at a weekly chart PACT's TRIX signal is just about to cross upward signaling the beginning of a long term upward trend .... (KEY BULLISH SIGN) Studying it's daily chart, PACT's TRIX signal crossed upward on 8/2/05 .... The other bullish indicator to me is the "flag pole" developed back in Nov/Dec 2004. Strong upward move then followed by this triangle or "flag" pendant. When PACT does break from this formation it's move will most likely will be in the SAME direction as the LAST "big" break (upward) .... The only negatives I see are it's high short interest. Could be a blessing or a curse and Chaikin money flow shows steady distribution .... Either way up or down .... PACT will be breaking out of this narrow range very soon. I'm long PACT, hoping to see a NTES repeat next week. These China-techs can bust out like a rodeo bull.
~Lye

heh Lye....rip it a new one. Yeah, I guess I did. I probably should have just done the pink triangle and left it at that LOL, but hey, that would have been too easy! So anyway, we agree that the pink triangle break is going to lead the next tradeable move.

Since you're holding long, I'll root for ya and hope my puny TA is blindsided by the huge institution about to buy it!

[spikefader]

Spike...your periodic WITS analysis would be appreciated...I'm getting tired of this...avg buy 14.49...4/04 and 6/04...I feel like I have too much tied up...But I've had others like that; HANS sold at 25...LCAV at about 22...MIDD at 25.96...They all take off after I sell...I made decent $$$ on each...But it coulda been a whole lot better...PATIENCE PATIENCE PATIENCE on the long termers...Thx

I feel yer frustration. WITS has been somethin else. But it's looking pretty good I think, despite the potential double top there. The count I did takes it over it, unless the 5th truncates and stops short. The pattern can't even give you ascending triangle hope that you're gonna get a good 5th! WITS; the frustrating enigma! But you do have the green channel turn up that follows the major channel long. They are good to have. I'm bullish on it in the face of that double top, as long as the channel long day holds. If it fails there, that's a double top with a failed channel long, which is an exit warning right in your face.

[spikefader]

Spike - let me ask you this: If today's lows are taken out tomorrow (on the compq)... will that turn you bearish?

No, remember I get led by that silly Vector thingymagig And as far as compq's and sox count goes, I could just be early on 'c' location. IIC may be right about Naz return to the 50 (2023). (That would match with a major channel long too).

And if I'm wrong on my read, the beauty of Vector is it will get me neutral or bearish very quickly. Right now, it's still bullish, which is fine with me since the counts are in areas of 'c' and 4, which are good areas to have a bullish bias. I'm looking at $SOX and that's wanting channel support which is OK too, since the count I have allows for a return to 450ish to complete 4. Vector may just be early is all.

And I say all this as I'm cautiously scalping Dow futures on the short side today. Huh you say!!! Spike, why are you shorting when your bias is bullish??! Well, futes are a different ballgame alltogether and often move well against any general market bias I have. I want to exploit those moves. Having a fixed bullish daily view might mean I miss some very nice intraday scalps/swings.

[Lyehopper]

PACT .... need more TA Spike.

What do you see in PACT now Spike?

A finish above 8.75 would be pretty bullish don't you think? Target 17.24? or am I just plain crazy?

[spikefader]

What do you see in PACT now Spike?

A finish above 8.75 would be pretty bullish don't you think? Target 17.24? or am I just plain crazy?

Lye; heh, call me a nut, but I see a great short setup with the formation of that R shoulder on the 20 day hourly chart. It's also right at the triangle resistance. Very good r/r for the short entry here, with stop above high of day at 8.50 or 8.80. That's either 1.7% or 4% risk to target at least the SHS target, which is +21%, and 2.50 full retrace and +70%.

I'd want to see the daily close out of the triangle before I'd lose my bias.

And if I'm wrong and it explodes up, yep, good target, but let me think more on it and get back.

[New-born baby]

Topping Tails

Lye; heh, call me a nut, but I see a great short setup with the formation of that R shoulder on the 20 day hourly chart. It's also right at the triangle resistance. Very good r/r for the short entry here, with stop above high of day at 8.50 or 8.80. That's either 1.7% or 4% risk to target at least the SHS target, which is +21%, and 2.50 full retrace and +70%.

I'd want to see the daily close out of the triangle before I'd lose my bias.

And if I'm wrong and it explodes up, yep, good target, but let me think more on it and get back.

PACT is full of tops tails.

[spikefader]

PACT: fyi, forming a right shoulder on intraday 1 min, which is exactly where I'd be entering short if I was going to. Tell me to shut up Lye I won't be offended. The last thing you want is some knucklehead calling short when you want it to run...but that's just how I'd trade it. The neckline break of the SHS (assuming it comes) would also be another option of where I'd short it.

EDIT: Reading back through thread I see the ticker error here; I listed PARL and was actually refering to PACT. So I've corrected it.

[FundaMental1]

Spike - ALY

ALY - this one has had a crazy run recently but has pulled back around $2 from it's high. it seems like it may be basing right now? what are your thoughts and a good entry point?

Also, what do you think of IPII? it got wacked on earnings today (down like 25%). what does the chart indicate there?

thank you chart master.

[Lyehopper]

but let me think more on it and get back.[/QUOTE]


Back in the "day" ... When I used to play "five-card draw" with my old man, he'd say; "son .... study long, study wrong".

Of course with PACT the "kicker" card will be that earnings report next week.

PARL has a face down kicker too. dd shall reveal.

[spikefader]

PACT in review today.

[dmk112]

Spike, still bullish?? What is that vector thingymaggig telling you?

[spikefader]

Spike, still bullish?? What is that vector thingymaggig telling you?

Yep, still bullish. Vector bullish at close.

I did close my EFA position today though for a modest 6.5%. That's done the 5 wave completion (within a 3) I think, and I'm going to re-enter the abc/4 correction to the gap fill and look for a 5th.