Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[dmk112]

Spike, can I get your thoughts on NGPS? Took a wild hit today...

[spikefader]

Spike, can I get your thoughts on NGPS? Took a wild hit today...

Sure. Just now posted my thoughts over in the NGPS thread http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...6&postcount=72

[spikefader]

ARLP examples

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

Pardon my naivete,but which charting software are you displaying?

cordially Tom

[df21084]

Quotetracker.

Greetings Spike,

Pardon my naivete,but which charting software are you displaying?

cordially Tom

Woohoo !!!!! I can answer that. It's the free charts supplied via QuoteTracker. I downloaded this software a couple of days ago. It's very nice, and it's free.

Thanks spikefader for letting me know about this. http://www.quotetracker.com/

[spikefader]

Yep, df is correct. That is a 'Historical' chart via prophet.net integration with QT. There is also a Big Charts option too. The intraday charts I post are QT's.

[jiesen]

thanks...I took some at 79.34...I'm headed to Foxwoods tonight! Who will drink with me??

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AHC&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

AHC hit an all-time high today of 120. It looks like your trip to Foxwoods this time will be 50% better! (Unless the price of beer there has gone up...)

[spikefader]

Above chart posted last Sunday night.
Ascending triangle magic this week


Perhaps I should do an ascending triangle Sunday night play every week!

[Websman]

VPHM looks like an ascending triangle.

[spikefader]

VPHM looks like an ascending triangle.

Yes, it does....and there's a channel turn up from the top too........and 2 channel long days in the last couple months........great money flow......a pull back to a 15 min gap support area, that has held twice before, a 15 min bullish trend change with money flow of 70 Friday afternoon........it's at a fabulous area to be buying! Stop at 11.20 under price support is 3.4% risk, to target 20% (upper daily channel of 14.00). Sounds like an OK plan that one.....

[New-born baby]

Of course you should!

Perhaps I should do an ascending triangle Sunday night play every week!

Do we need to beg you? Please post an ascending triangle play every Sunday night!
God bless the Spike.

[skiracer]

There are a number of factors to take into consideration regarding any ascending triangles. The first one being that they are not a sure thing and a large percentage fail. Bulkowski's " Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" gives 8 or nine pages on them and should be read by anyone doing this type of trading. Here are a few of the more important points from the book regarding ascending triangles.
1. Triangular shape with horizontal top line an up sloping bottom line.
2. Short term (up to 3 months) bullish consolidation.
3. Failure rate of 32%.
4. Failure rate if you wait it out for the upcoming upside breakout 2%.
5. Volume trend as the two lines approach the apex of the triangle (point where the two lines intersect) should trend downward. Lessening volume.
6. Premature breakouts; 25%
7. Breakout distance to apex(apex being the point in item #5. 63% - not sure what this means.
8. Throwbacks - 58% - these are pullbacks to the horizontal top line and are good entry points if the breakout is missed when it takes place.
9. Percentage meeting predicted price target. 89%

Identification Characteristics. These are necessary and required to fulfull the characteristics to be called a true ascending triangle.
1. Horizontal top line and upsloping bottom line.
2. Prices must rise up to and fall away from a horizontal resistance line (top line) at least twice (two minor highs). Prices need not touch the top trendline but should come reasonable close (say within 1/8 of a point). The top line need not be perfectly horizontal but usually is a level line.
3. Up-sloping bottom line. The prices decline to and rise away fro an up-sloping trendline. Basically the same requirements about touching the bottom trendline twice. At least two minor lows are required.
4. Price movement should cross the chart pattern several times; there should not be a large amount of white space in the center of the triangle. So zigzagging back and forth from top to bottom as the triangle pattern tightens getting closer to the apex.
5. Volume is heavier at the start of the formation than at the end. Volume is usually at it's lowest just before the breakout. This is an important signal of the coming breakout as volume usually dries up to almost nil just before the breakout.
6. Premature breakouts happen quite frequently both to the upside and downside. Volume on a premature or false breakout will be heavy, just as in the genuine breakout.
7. Upside breakouts will usually, but don't need to be, on heavy volume and will continue to remain heavy for several days.
8. Price action after the breakout, or once prices pierce the horizontal resistance line confirming a breakout, will move up an away from the ascending triangle formation. Throwbacks will happen an are good for entry if missed at first. But if prices continue to climb rapidly then volume will probably remain high. For downside breakouts, volume is high at first and usually tapers off unless the price decline is high and then the volume usually remains high.
Some tactics for trading ascending triangles.
1. Compute the height of the formation at the start of the triangle. Add the result to the price of the horizontal trendline. The sum is the minimum price target. This would be the number of points from the low at the start of the triangles bottom up-sloping line to the top of the horizontal line. If the number is 3.5 the add that number to the price which the horizontal line is at and that is your minimum target price generally speaking as a rule of thumb.
2. Wait for a confirmation and buy the stock the day after the breakout (when prices close above the top trendline by at least 1/8 point). If you miss this point, hope for a throwback (pullback) then buy when the prices resume the breakout direction after the completion of the pullback. If you're like me an I think Spike also, you most likely will look for an entry before this confirmation but sometime after you confirm that this is a true ascending triangle just to catch a point or two more than those entering on the breakout. This doesn't always work out but that's what stops are for.
3. For short term traders, sell when prices near target price (this is called the measure rule) or when prices pierce a support trendline. For intermediate and long term holders hold until the fundamentals or market conditions change.
4. On downside breakouts, when it doesn't go according to plan sell if you own the stock. If you don't own the stock it is a great entry for a short term shorting play or add to your short position.
5. On shorting plays when an ascending triangle appears you have a one in three chance that it will breakout downward. You have to be watching to confirm the direction and to make the short play on these instances.

So don't assume anything with these ascending triangles. The odds are more in your favor that they will provide upside movement but any move to the upside is not written in stone. Everyone should invest in a copy of Bulkowski's book for referencing chart patterns of any type. The more you read on the numerous types of chart formations and the odds of how they will perform the better your chances of picking the right play for those setups.

[IIC]

Hey Spike...I probably should know this...But when you are Bullish or Bearish...What kind of time frame are you talking about?

For example...I am Bearish for the next week...but I am Bullish for the year-end.

[dmk112]

ski, this is true - failure rate is pretty high! that is why I will wait until the upside breakout

[spikefader]

Runner;
re http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=3779
KOSP looks set to start the 'c'.