Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[B.J]

Spike, re: SIM, someone else pointed out to me that the pattern since 2/22 actually forms a DESCENDING triangle. Since the two triangles intersect, does that mean price movement, one way or another, will occur very soon?

[New-born baby]

Fdg

Spike,

Apparently, you know something about chart reading. FDG down almost $4 today. It was up about 1.90 at one point, but acting very sluggish. I went to work and when I came home she had been hammered down.

Thanks for the good chart work!

[noshadyldy]

Omni

RATS!!!!! I had to go out and it jumped way past the pivot point with me standing on the sidelines. I think this stocks time has come (energy sector) and have you seen the volume. !
Price increased by ap. 33% this afternoon!!!!! RATS RATS RATS RATS!!!!!

[spikefader]

Spike, re: SIM, someone else pointed out to me that the pattern since 2/22 actually forms a DESCENDING triangle. Since the two triangles intersect, does that mean price movement, one way or another, will occur very soon?

I see a bullish bias. Ascending triangle is the bigger and more significant pattern.

[B.J]

Spike, I'm somewhat of a novice to charting, but I noticed one thing about SIM's action toward the close. I was watching it go down fairly rapidly in the last half hour, then it hit support at 6.72, and bounced. The 6.72 price is right on the lower edge of the triangle. My question: do traders consiously set their orders right on the edge? I ask this because there was a pretty large bid size once it got to 6.72.

As for my action, I had bought earlier at 7.10, figuring the 50 DMA would support it, but it was not the case. Thus I'm in a slight hole, but not bad.

[spikefader]

Spike, I'm somewhat of a novice to charting, but I noticed one thing about SIM's action toward the close. I was watching it go down fairly rapidly in the last half hour, then it hit support at 6.72, and bounced. The 6.72 price is right on the lower edge of the triangle. My question: do traders consiously set their orders right on the edge? I ask this because there was a pretty large bid size once it got to 6.72.

As for my action, I had bought earlier at 7.10, figuring the 50 DMA would support it, but it was not the case. Thus I'm in a slight hole, but not bad.

As for traders supporting the lower edge of a triangle, I would suggest yes, it might be a statistically significant occurrence. I know for certain, traders consiously put their bids at levels of support - wherever they happen to see it. It might be intraday price support or intraday FIB price, or double bottom, or any of the other technical reasons to judge support.

But, at the same time, there might be an ascending triangle that won't hold shape because support never arrives to keep it in there...thus the pattern fails. Thus the only truly certain thing is support is support until it fails. But it's not forgotten. That previous support changes into resistance, and the game starts over again.

[IIC]

Hey Spike...still a bear? I want to see a hi vol blowout of 2100 before I become bullish myself...Anyway, when you get some time...can I get your latest take on WITS?...Thx...Doug(IIC)

[dmk112]

never mind...i was asking a question that was already answered above...duh

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

While Im in limbo between brokers,I figure Ill do some research.A poster on a canroy sight who gives logical reasons for buys and sells has brought up a stock LTXX.

It is near a 3year low,with a chart that really shows me nothing bullish,yet the point is brought up that support has always kicked in at $5.00 and claims reward from here is significant.

Would a bid at support near 5, give a good RR scenario?

This particular investor cites money that will flow out of energy stocks as they get pricey,and into chip equipment stocks,which rocket up when in favor.I realise its pure speculation,and has no bearing on chart analysis,but it got me thinking.

Would a stock that has historically held these lows be worth considering,and can you see anything positive in its chart?It appears to be able to add 20% in a hurry at times.

Off topic,ZICA is hovering at 5.50,but what I can see on long and short term charts,channels look to converge aroung 4.00.Am I even close?

BTW Im glad to be taking a break from trading,looking to improve my timing skills.
Your call on PGH expanding its channel I believe signals a problem with that canroy.
Even though I lost cash on it,it is teaching me patience,and to wait for my price and not budge.

Its strange how when your on the bid,you view the ask as in control.When asking a price,I feel the bid is controlling the action.I think it points out poor entries on flawed buy premises,or impatience on my part.

Sorry for the long winded rant.

cordially inactive Tom

BTW exited EENC today for a small profit so I can change brokers,when I resume trading ,my focus will be on PVX,as it predictably swings betweeen dist.on good volume.

[spikefader]

Hey Spike...still a bear? I want to see a hi vol blowout of 2100 before I become bullish myself...Anyway, when you get some time...can I get your latest take on WITS?...Thx...Doug(IIC)

Hey IIC. Yep, still a bear. I clicked the wrong option in the bull/bear poll. If there is a bullish triangle break on a closing basis, that would flip me back to a bull I think.

Wits, weekly channel turn up is bullish. On the daily, channel long from Feb 22 remains in force. Weekly upper channel targets 26.00ish.

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
LTXX......near a 3year low...$5.00 claims reward...would a bid at support near 5, give a good RR scenario?

Off topic,ZICA is hovering at 5.50,but what I can see on long and short term charts,channels look to converge aroung 4.00.Am I even close?

BTW Im glad to be taking a break from trading,looking to improve my timing skills. Your call on PGH expanding its channel I believe signals a problem with that canroy. Even though I lost cash on it,it is teaching me patience,and to wait for my price and not budge.

Its strange how when your on the bid,you view the ask as in control.When asking a price,I feel the bid is controlling the action.I think it points out poor entries on flawed buy premises,or impatience on my part.

LTXX: Yes, it's in the thick of volume and price support. Is that enough to enter? Not for me. Many others buy such support. But channels are whispering lower prices. The red channel turn down is bearish, and there's the recent channel short day. I wouldn't buy this yet.

ZICA: Nice reading. I'm seeing 4.00 - and came to that prior to reading your whole paragraph mentioning 4.00 You have a double top there around 8.00, and price looks to search for some volume support. Time will tell if it's 4.00 or lower. But that lower channel is the one to watch for an entry imo.

PGH: Not sure. On the weekly, it shows a real nice channel long last week, with no expansion. Since that daily channel expansion (break?) there hasn't been a channel short day yet.....and from the width of that channel, there is still a chance it could turn up prior to signalling the short. Still has a chance to prove that the channel long was in fact a 'c' entry and not a channel break.

Patience is so hard to learn imho. I think one has to just finally realize that being stubborn and inflexible about entries is the only way to really exploit an edge. That, and being prepared to miss a move completely because it just didn't give you the discount smart ambush entry you wanted. Yes, that bid/ask in control feeling is something I can relate to. Market maker games can add confusion to the equation and cause you to pull the trigger way too early. This is why it's best not to watch bid/ask movement so much as to form a plan based on the pattern and price action, put the order in there and wait. If it fills, great. If it doesn't, ces la vis. Impatience is the destructive force that we all feel. Often, we want price to show us that it's ok to buy, which means you're going to be chasing an entry after a bullish spurt. Thus losing an element of edge - buying into weakness at support.

Good tradin'!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
Thanks for the input,and world class advice.The more I study,I find a patient,disciplined trader will profit off a mediocre mover,and an impulsive trader will likely lose on even a great moving stock.

EE is my lesson to learn Entries are essential.

cordially Tom

[IIC]

Hey IIC. Yep, still a bear. I clicked the wrong option in the bull/bear poll. If there is a bullish triangle break on a closing basis, that would flip me back to a bull I think.

Wits, weekly channel turn up is bullish. On the daily, channel long from Feb 22 remains in force. Weekly upper channel targets 26.00ish.

Thanks...IIC

[MickyMouse]

break.

Patience is so hard to learn imho. I think one has to just finally realize that being stubborn and inflexible about entries is the only way to really exploit an edge. That, and being prepared to miss a move completely because it just didn't give you the discount smart ambush entry you wanted. Yes, that bid/ask in control feeling is something I can relate to. Market maker games can add confusion to the equation and cause you to pull the trigger way too early. This is why it's best not to watch bid/ask movement so much as to form a plan based on the pattern and price action, put the order in there and wait. If it fills, great. If it doesn't, ces la vis. Impatience is the destructive force that we all feel. Often, we want price to show us that it's ok to buy, which means you're going to be chasing an entry after a bullish spurt. Thus losing an element of edge - buying into weakness at support.

Good tradin'!

Spikefader,

Thanks for the advice. I memtioned in another thread that I have to refine my entry strategy. And I get the advice here from you! Thanks again.

Micky

[New-born baby]

Fording Coal

Spike,

FDG (was $106, now $98.50) fell just like you said. The last two days it has fallen less than $1. Today it fell something like $ .40 to $98.50. Is this thing basing, in your opinion? My chart says $93.65 bottom. March 29 she divys out $1.30 and splits 3:1. I want some of that, but I don't want to jump in too soon. What does an expert say? I value your opinion.

Thanks!