Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Spike,
Do you think ACI will retrace Wednesday? I am seeing the FIB line at $75.38 for the retrace of the recent move downward, and I figure that is going to prove to be resistance. In short, I expect a pullback tomorrow. Would you agree?

Thanks!

I'm thinkin' it might be impulsive. Recent channel long, then failed channel short (confirmed with SHS intraday pattern yesterday). And while you've got an intraday double top today, it is coming off a 'c' long today and an hourly bullflag is in place.

If it is impulsive, you are owed 1 more good hourly impulse and a another 5 waves on the 5 min within it up to 80.50. And if today's 'c' fails, then she may fall hard. So imagine 74.85 as the pivot point as far as bull/bear outcome. You have potential daily bullish zero line rejects on the daily, so money might come into that bull flag. I wouldn't count on a retrace.

Good luck.

[spikefader]

Hi Spike,
Congrads on your wonderful calls lately. You are "da BULL"!
Listen, whats going on with HLEX chart?
Cramer pumped last Friday on his TV show, and it certainly got some volume steam going. But up so much? It even printed an all-time high today (intrday).
I am seeing support at around $22... and then the bottom of the gap at $20.
Of course there is a 50-day moving avg at around $21.
What are yuor thoughts? I know a few that shorted around the $23.90 area today, and perhaps should I join on a re-test of this level tommorow?
THANKS again!

Thanks.

Gold nugget every now and then

HLEX it's a tricky one with mixed signals today. Looks like it's done a 30 min 12345a, so look for the b,c, 'c' long opportunity. But you have double top now, and expanding channel short, so I'd expect the 'c' to fail. Short from 23.90/24.00 double top is a very good play, despite not having a perfect pattern there (kinda SHS with small L shoulder).

Should you join on a retest of 23.90? Yes, I'd say that's pretty good r/r there. You'd be shorting the next strength which will be the 'b' up, and look for the c to fail and potential gap fill. With risk of 1.6% (over hod) you'd be looking for 15%, which is r/r of 9.4 which is pretty good.

[mystiky]

Spike - appreciare the very fast reply.

I love your words, but if you have a minute or two to draw a CHART, that would be awesome. I am a bit confused about the 15% r/r. From 24?

MERCI!

Thanks.

Gold nugget every now and then

HLEX it's a tricky one with mixed signals today. Looks like it's done a 30 min 12345a, so look for the b,c, 'c' long opportunity. But you have double top now, and expanding channel short, so I'd expect the 'c' to fail. Short from 23.90/24.00 double top is a very good play, despite not having a perfect pattern there (kinda SHS with small L shoulder).

Should you join on a retest of 23.90? Yes, I'd say that's pretty good r/r there. You'd be shorting the next strength which will be the 'b' up, and look for the c to fail and potential gap fill. With risk of 1.6% (over hod) you'd be looking for 15%, which is r/r of 9.4 which is pretty good.

[spikefader]

Spike - appreciare the very fast reply.
I love your words, but if you have a minute or two to draw a CHART, that would be awesome. I am a bit confused about the 15% r/r. From 24?
MERCI!

Sure here ya go. Yes, the r/r of 9 is a 15% move down from 23.90 to a full gap fill of 20.30.

[spikefader]

Creme is rising.

[B.J]

Well, here's what I think

[skiracer]

There's no doubt that it broke the trendline today but I wouldn't call it a spectular day or a convincing breakthrough. About a 24 point range from LOD to HOD on pretty good volume on both the $COMPQ and the Q's. Speaks of indecision to me. An I wouldn't be relying on that broken trendline to act as strong support now that it has been broken as resistance. We've had a pretty good run up an I'm not saying it's done yet but we're due for a correction of sorts and that actually would be good for the markets in general to pick up the uptrend after some consolidation of these recent gains.

Remember it's coming up to Thanksgiving and we all have alot to be thankful for so keep in mind to try and do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Still when we might be wrong, an every one of us is plenty of times, it's bad enough being wrong and no one needs it shoved in their face for believing in what they thought might be right.

[spikefader]

LOL B.J!

Yep, ski, I agree that the market is due for a correction. There are gaps back there and considering the volume on those days I expect them to fill at some time in the next month. When it sells, it will be a very tradeable drop. dmk is just licking his beary lips for it to happen, and frankly so am I. Short the futures when it drops quick will be very rewarding when it does come, and I'll be looking to get into that action! Trust me! I love shorting.

But the fact is that the market is acting impulsively and just cuz it's 'due for a correction' doesn't mean it can't squeeze those shorts some more. And while we are likely in the 5th completion on the COMPX (and the Dow for that matter) there is no guarantee that it won't abc when the 5th is done and then continue up. We are likely in a smaller 3rd of 5 for COMPX, so I see us continuing up for one or two more days then the corrective waves kicking in. Shoot, it could do it first thing in the morning, ramp exhaustive move that sells and drop to fill the gaps.

For my YM long I am going to be watching like a hawk when Dow hits 10882 major trendline resistance (likely tomorrow) for an intraday pattern or blow off top to close it out, or at least trim 2/3 of it. If a double top and SHS forms at or just beyond that trendline I'd be unwise to hold it in hope in the face of the bearish setup. In fact, dmk, that is a very good place to be looking to short. But if the pattern or blow off doesn't show I'll be holdin' it. Optimistic bears must surely anticipate that the count looks like it's doing a 5th within a 5th from the start of the move and the Dow looks like it's just about out of steam. Corrective abc waves could be back to 10700 over the next 6 trading days.

For my Q calls I think I'll do the same thing; take profits on a pattern the next few days. I'd be cautioning yall to be careful from this point forward establishing longs.

Ain't it the dumps! Just when the bullishness starts becoming obvious .... it's time to start looking over your shoulder and consider selling to all the knuckas that missed the move and now excitedly buying on emotion that might be optimism based purely on something as simple as a COMPX trendline break.

It makes no sense to many, and oh so much sense to a few.

Make 'em pretty!

[B.J]

Remember it's coming up to Thanksgiving and we all have alot to be thankful for so keep in mind to try and do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Still when we might be wrong, an every one of us is plenty of times, it's bad enough being wrong and no one needs it shoved in their face for believing in what they thought might be right.

If that's to me, I was simply poking fun at the line thickness thing more than DMK's take on the market. As an investor, I have tons of respect for DMK, and everyone else on here, and have probably been wrong more often. But, if DMK has a problem with my picture, I'll certainly get rid of it.

Happy Turkey day, all! But I'll be around tomorrow, as well to watch the probably quiet trading day

[skiracer]

It was a great call on the bullish move Spike. I was somewhere out in left field but one of my better assets is that when I see the writing on the wall I never let my personal feelings or ego get in the way of the right side. My own feelings are that I'm only a stop away from stopping the bleeding if it goes the wrong way so I can't get in to much trouble. I had a pretty good couple of weeks myself and feel blessed especially seeing how I was feeling about the markets a couple of weeks ago. I know you'll be protecting those gains regardless of how this thing goes. Great work.

[skiracer]

If that's to me, I was simply poking fun at the line thickness thing more than DMK's take on the market. As an investor, I have tons of respect for DMK, and everyone else on here, and have probably been wrong more often. But, if DMK has a problem with my picture, I'll certainly get rid of it.

Happy Turkey day, all! But I'll be around tomorrow, as well to watch the probably quiet trading day

BJ
It was kind of for everyone but I really didn't intend it in a mean spirited way at all. It didn't offend me at all an I hope it didn't bother DMK either or he didn't take it in the wrong way. It's all good and the line actually was pretty funny. Back at you with the Happy Turkey day. I'm sitting on a couple of great positions right now an it would be nice to see it go on for the rest of the week but I'll be keeping a tight rein on what I've got going right now just in case the worm turns.

[ForeverInvesting]

Oil?

Spike,

Can you post your current thoughts on crude oil? It bounced of the trend line going back to December 2004. Should we start looking at oil stocks again?

Thanks.

[skiracer]

Spike,
Saw this on Briefing.com and wanted your take on the top chart. Also thought the bottom chart and whole article might help Foreverinvesting an his question. Looking at the top chart could you interpret it as 5 waves up with the last wave not quite through to completion? I think I see 5 waves.

[skiracer]

Spike,
Saw this on Briefing.com and wanted your take on the top chart. Also thought the bottom chart and whole article might help Foreverinvesting an his question. Looking at the top chart could you interpret it as 5 waves up with the last wave not quite through to completion? I think I see 5 waves.

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Spike if you see this soon,would you give some thought,HLEX looks ready to short,SHS,and falling wedge seem to be in play here around 23.60,any thoughts?

Im gonna take some short if I see it break

cordially Tom