Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[dmk112]

lol well don't get too excited dude. If ya ask me, 'nice' is an understatement!! Those intraday pattern failures were HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE. As was the bullish price action last three days in the face of bearish daily candles at resistance.

Spike the COMPX closed at 2,227 - STILL BELOW ITS OPEN
That is not HUUUUUUUUUUGE if you ask me. Until that 2,234 is taken out WITH VIGOR then I am a bear.

dmk, I thought you were gonna be a bull after COMPX pushing up through the 100/200 EMAs back when we were joking about this pic:

LOL that was funny. I was a bull after that point, but that was about 2 weeks ago. But it just doens't feel like a TRUE rally. It seems that the indices are breaking out but have not taken all the boats with them. I'm not saying there aren't great stocks out there, but not as many as I would like to see in this last move. On Friday there were 187 new hi's and 133 new lo's - THAT IS NOT A BULL MARKET FOR SURE.

Just my thoughts and the market does have potential, but the fact is, resistance is resistance until it is broken, and it still is NOT broken (COMPX).

Good weekend All.

[ForeverInvesting]

Spke,

Do you think this a valid chart?

Thanks.

[spikefader]

Hey Tom.

It'll keep 'gettin' ya every time' while ever you let it. Just gotta bite the bullet and say no!

LEXR, I think she's goin' up, but I'd be taking profit at 10.20-10.45 resistance and waiting.

Good luck!

[spikefader]

ForeverInvesting: Bullish broadening pattern fits best I think.

EDIT: the position of the top '2' should be a little right of where it is.

[tokyojoeskid]

I have been out for a week, and look to my surprise SNDK is dropping like a rock! Now it is time to be stalking it for an entry. Spike where do you think next support is, 43?

Thanks much

TJk

[spikefader]

I have been out for a week, and look to my surprise SNDK is dropping like a rock! Now it is time to be stalking it for an entry. Spike where do you think next support is, 43?

Thanks much

TJk

Well it's no surprise to me. I think I told you'd it would probably fall fast from profit-taking around 63.00. It's fallen almost 20 points from the top in short order. I think I may have even commented about the intraday pattern on the day of the high?? I dunno, anyway, yes, it's stalk time dude. It's an expanding major weekly channel, but if 46.15 doesn't hold I would recommend you let it cook for several weeks and wait for it to recover and give you new reason to take it. You see, 46.15 was the last weekly channel long. Failure there makes it smell.

As I speak there's a double bottom setup at 46.40 that is worth taking long with stop at 46.35ish. Very nice r/r there.

[spikefader]

Spike ......I am a bear....just doens't feel like a TRUE rally....not taken all the boats with them...187 new hi's and 133 new lo's.....NOT A BULL MARKET FOR SURE....resistance is resistance until it is broken, and it still is NOT broken (COMPX).
Good weekend All.

Dude, with the greatest respect, I gotta question your logic. SPX and COMPX and NDX are hitting 3-year highs and the Dow ain't far away from it, and in my humble little opinion is acting impulsive and bearish intraday patterns are failing. That's bull. Impulse is impulse. Don't forget that. It seems you're only fighting the trend here. The patterns are all there to support long. I don't understand why you're not seeing all that. And I'm only laying it out there cuz I don't want you to a) miss out on it and b) lost money shorting futures when it's clearly bullish. Perhaps this is only about dmk vs spike?? I dunno. But it ain't no contest to me, and it's all about being on the right side of the trade, and admitting you're wrong early to reduce downside and leverage upside.

Good tradin' dude. Wish ya the best.

[dmk112]

Dude, with the greatest respect, I gotta question your logic. SPX and COMPX and NDX are hitting 3-year highs and the Dow ain't far away from it, and in my humble little opinion is acting impulsive and bearish intraday patterns are failing. That's bull. Impulse is impulse. Don't forget that. It seems you're only fighting the trend here. The patterns are all there to support long. I don't understand why you're not seeing all that. And I'm only laying it out there cuz I don't want you to a) miss out on it and b) lost money shorting futures when it's clearly bullish. Perhaps this is only about dmk vs spike?? I dunno. But it ain't no contest to me, and it's all about being on the right side of the trade, and admitting you're wrong early to reduce downside and leverage upside.

Good tradin' dude. Wish ya the best.

Spike, I'm not trying to argue with you at all. I'm just suprised that with being right at resistance, you're overly bullish?!? I'm questioning your logic, lol. Yes, the trend is up but we are at 4 year resistance and that's a fact. And yes we made "4 year highs" blah blah blah. Take a look at the NAZ & SPX in July, they were making yearly highs as well... I think you know what happened days after.

I'm not trying to be negative here but I am just stating the facts. Maybe that resistance will break indeed and you will be the "hero" but until that point you're just stating your opinion and I am stating mine. I look at market internals as a signal of how strong a rally is, and the internals are not screaming "RALLY!". In fact, the idicies are making highs and the internals are not (new highs & ad/dc). That's a negative divergence!

I just want to say that you have to be careful on the long side right now and I would definetly NOT be initiating any long positions here, that's all. I'm not saying go short on your whole porfolio, LOL.

By the end of this week we will know if we're heading for a "leg up" or if we're going back down to the bottom of this 4 year trading range. Goold luck.

[spikefader]

Why use the word 'hero'? It sure ain't about that and it's somewhat inflammatory. But I'll take it like you didn't mean that I'm trying to be one and move on with some thoughts about you post.

Strinctly speaking we aren't 'right at' resistance, we are approaching 'some' of it. but it's OK to be holding long and even establishing longs into index resistance if the TA supports it for the issue you're looking at, as long as the r/r is right. Fear of approaching index resistance is no reason to take a bearish or even neutral stance for that matter. Sure, smart money generally sells resistance. But a) we're not at it yet and b) Patterns and ST indicators are supporting a bullish bias.

And I'm doing much more than just stating my opinion on the bullishness; for weeks I've been posting charts and logic behind the opinion. You haven't. If anyone's stating opinion it's you, and by your own admission you say you're 'feeling' like it isn't a genuine rally, albeit for the a/d argument. And you use a failed breakout months ago as a reason not to be optimistic right now? Breakouts fail all the time, doesn't mean you don't look optimistically at the other things that support that a breakout may be volatile to the upside. Again, it's down to your r/r setups. But general market bias should be established for reasons, not fear of resistance that we're not even at yet. Negative divergence you say? That might happen for a tradeable lengthy period of time. It's ok to trade in the face of one if the balance of the TA green lights it.

But thanks, I will be careful on the long side; always am. Just like the short side I'm fast to admit I'm wrong so I avoid being badly wrong. You gotta change stance fast in today's market. I was very bearish not long ago you'll recall; then I switched very bullish and have been correct for a while now thankfully. But it ain't about being a hero and right (while it IS nice to be right every now and then ). It's about finding the truth and expressing it in a modest and agreeable way so others can benefit from it.

Anyway, I'll get out of your face. You're entitled to the view and I'll respect it. Hope that if she does sell you nail the top.

[ForeverInvesting]

ForeverInvesting: Bullish broadening pattern fits best I think.

EDIT: the position of the top '2' should be a little right of where it is.

So do I understand your thinking that around $40 is a better entry?

Thanks again.

[spikefader]

Added to YM 10811. 30 point stop to start.

[spikefader]

So do I understand your thinking that around $40 is a better entry?

Thanks again.

Oh no, sorry; I meant that the height of X is the target of X from the breakout. As far as entry, there's a channel turn up from Friday you could take at the close 45.93 or today's intraday pivot 45.84, which it's under now by a little. That would leave you a stop of 44.00 for 4% risk. But bear in mind there is a double top from today and Friday now......so that might justify waiting for that to resolve. Or wait for the 20-day PSAR/MFI buy signal to chase it.

Good luck.

[ForeverInvesting]

Oh no, sorry; I meant that the height of X is the target of X from the breakout. As far as entry, there's a channel turn up from Friday you could take at the close 45.93 or today's intraday pivot 45.84, which it's under now by a little. That would leave you a stop of 44.00 for 4% risk. But bear in mind there is a double top from today and Friday now......so that might justify waiting for that to resolve. Or wait for the 20-day PSAR/MFI buy signal to chase it.

Good luck.

Thanks, I will watch it closely.

[billyjoe]

Spike,
Can you suggest some alternative ways of using stops in a portfolio that closes all positions at week's end ? Last week I used 7%, 7%, 7%, 4%, 2% somewhat trailing based on opening prices each day of the advancers. Thanks.

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Yours seems a pretty clever way to do it. Early in the week give more wiggle room, reducing to Friday tight stops to lock in the gains you have and reduce the downside risk late in the week.

You could try something like FIB fans from the latest significant low to the latest high:
Mon/Tues use the 61.8% fanline
Wed/Thurs use the 50% fanline and
Friday use the 38.2% fanline.

Or just use regular Fib retracements in the same way, but fans will be slightly more aggressive and tighter.

Another idea is to use PSAR trend indicator.
Mon/Tues/Wed use the 60 min chart
Thursday/Fri use the 30 min.

Or how about simple moving averages?
Mon/Tues use the 40 sma on the hourly chart
Wed/Thurs use the 20 sma
Friday use the 10sma

Few ideas there that might help....