Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Lyehopper]

AMTD vs IB

Don't know fellas.... What would IB's commission cost for this example: Sell 6,500 shares URBN limit 33.49?....

I traded this on Wednesday for $5.50. They have worked out a commission "deal" with me so I won't leave them. I'm pretty sure that nobody can touch my current margin rates either.

Tell ya what, I'll hammer these guys for the change at AMTD, I'll drop the IB name to my rep and shake him up a little.... tell him I've got a couple of "high profile" trading buddies of mine trying to get me to switch.lol.... Let you know how it goes.... What else should I ask for?

[skiracer]

Lye,
Are you saying that you traded 6500 shares of URBN at $33.49 = $220285.00 an it only cost you $5.50 to do the transaction?

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Are you saying that you traded 6500 shares of URBN at $33.49 = $220285.00 an it only cost you $5.50 to do the transaction?

yes that's what I'm saying.

[dmk112]

I guess when you're trading that many shares, IB is no good, lol. I guess it's good for me, I usually trade 100-500 lol.

[Lyehopper]

I guess when you're trading that many shares, IB is no good, lol. I guess it's good for me, I usually trade 100-500 lol.

AMTD treats 50 share and 10,000~ share trades the same. Costs them no more or less to electronically make the trade I guess. The advertised rate at AMTD is $10.99 per trade.... Like I said, I made a "deal" with them for a reduced rate.

IB might "deal" too though.... Just never know till you call them and talk to the right person.

[billyjoe]

Spike,
I have a stock whose short interest has declined by 97% in the last 30 days. It is doing very well , however, as rising short interest can be viewed as a near term bullish indicator how should I interpret this? It's only been on the market for a few months and would be considered thinly traded. Thanks

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Lye, you've got yourself a sweet commission structure there, and that's got to keep your motivation levels high to stay loyal to them. Assuming direct access/better order creation, execution and management isn't important to you then it's a no-brainer; stay with Ameritrade. You can always simply set stops and manually exit rather than feel the need to use limit target orders sitting in place. And like you say, squeeze them to get up-to-speed with IB's platform options. For me, it's more than the commission structure that's important, but I trade differently than you. I need direct access. I need speed. I need futes. I need booktrader and bracket orders. Commissions might be great with retail, but a 5 second guarantee doesn't cut it. 5 seconds is an eternity sometimes Why don't you open a small account with IB and play with it. See if it's going to give you an edge, or something you'll value enough to seriously consider switching.

[spikefader]

billyjoe, short interest is something I've never looked at too seriously. What's the ticker? Anyone else?

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

I was stopped out of this recently,anticipating a break,which failed to happen.It seems to be setting up a better RR scenario.



Im looking for an entry in the 8 range,with a stop at the 7.70 range,with a target of 11.Any thoughts Spike.

cordially Tom

[RL]

Spike Do You Agree With This?

The Naz has been in a rising wedge pattern that broke out on a closing basis
to the upside last week. The target calculated objective is a 400 point
move higher, up to 2635. This is calculated by taking the height of the wedge
at its widest point (week ending 1/23/04 for the high and 8/13/04 as the low)
and adding it to the pivot price (resistance line) of the wedge (2235). This
is also just below the 38.2% retracement value using the 2000 high and 2002
low, around 2,660.

A weekly close back below 2235 would signal a breakout failure and a likely
retracement back to the support line of the wedge

ON MY E-MAIL

[spikefader]

SCOTC Creme of the Crop review:

SCOTC Creme calculations for review to date:

I've gone over the numbers and for % profit/loss calculations I have been averaging over the 20 open positions, and I think this is in error. I should be averaging over all positions, which is currently 40 and is going to be rising with each elimination until the Star is made.

So the calculations (below) show that profit to date is average of 0.63% spread over the 40 positions. So the % drops but at least it's positive

CLOSED positions
BCSI -4 AGN -4 GEAC +1.2 RATE -4 CHRW -4 GILD -4 SYNC -6.5 MCRS -1.8 CB -1.2 ER -2 PSYS -3.5 SYNC -2.5 DJO +1.6 DJO -1 DJO -1 GOL -5.8 GOL -5.8 GOL -4 CIB -4 CIB +0.7................subtotal -55.6 for 20 positions = average of -2.78%
OPEN positions
GOOG 9.4 GOOG 8.7 ARS 7.8 ARS 7.5 GOOG 6.6 MCO 6.4 MCO 6 AET 5.9 GYI 5.1 GOOG 4.9 CHS 4.5 CHS 3.7 MCO 3.5 ARS 3.5 AET 2.2 MCO 1.1 AET 0.6 MCO 0.3 GYI 0.1 CHS 0.2 ....................subtotal 80.8 for 20 positions = average of 4.04%

Grand Total Profit is 80.8 - 55.6 = 25.2% out of 40 positions, which is an average of +0.63%. OK, sweet. It's profitable to date. Phew! hehe
_______________________

I wanted to also work out the average return for the 20 original Creme of the Crop candidates. System profit and loss is one thing, but what's the average % performance of the 20 candidates we started out with.
OK, Let's look at some % performance averages of "The Creme". Let's break it down into closed/eliminated versus open/rising.

First the closed: BCSI -4 AGN -4 GEAC +1.2 RATE -4 CHRW -4 GILD -4 SYNC -4.5 (-6.5 -2.5 averaged) MCRS -1.8 CB -1.2 ER -2 PSYS -3.5 DJO -0.13 (+1.6 -1 -1 averaged) GOL -5.2 (-5.8 -5.8 -4 averaged) CIB -1.65 (-4 +0.7 averaged).

That's -38.78 over 14 picks. So the average of eliminated Creme is -2.77%, with the worst being GOL at -5.2%, which underperformed the average loser by a sad 87% (this pick suffered a gap down open and there was slippage stopouts to -5.8% on 2 positions). Bottom line though was the port easily recovered to profitable territory - the power of diversification.

Next the Creme still open: GOOG 7.34 ARS 6.2 MCO 3.41 AET 2.85 CHS 2.63 GYI 2.55.

That's 24.98% over 6 picks. So the average of open and rising Creme is 4.16%, with the best being GOOG at 7.34%, which is outperforming the winners average by a huge 76%. Now THAT's Superstock performance. Perhaps the Star will be GOOG...... The laggard of the Creme (GYI) is only underperforming the average by 35%, which is OK considering it only has 2 positions and the 2nd position was just initiated and has yet had much opportunity to grow. And the bottom line is that GYI has as much chance as the others to become the Superstock! In fact, looking at the charts, it's setting up for a channel boom for this week. It's had a slight expanding weekly upper tag and the daily shows channel turn up from that top.....so if it's truly a Superstock it will boom and impress.

This week is going to be very interesting to watch.

What is going to start occurring now is the stronger ones being eliminated for positive %s, which will alter the system averages, average loser, average winner, win/loss ratio, and win probability, which is going to make for some interesting equity curve analysis. There are sooooooo many possibilities it's ridiculous to even try to do equity curve analysis. But for the fun of predictions I'm going out on a limb use some poetic licence and forecast one.

With some assumptions, average loser should/could/might reduce to -1.3%, average winner should/could/might raise to +7%, so win/loss ratio of 5.3 and a win prob of maybe 0.66 assuming only a handful more stopouts in negative numbers. So with all those assumptions, here's the equity curve that I precariously (and not seriously) predict



haha wow! Nice curve.
Is it too optimistic? Of course it is.
SCOTC is yet to prove it can do anything near this! But this is the potential that I see for the current portfolio. It's a matter of how the system averages out over the longer term though. There are sure to be system plays in future dumps that crash and burn and bring the equity curve down. But let's not let the truth get in the way of a good story! hehe

[spikefader]

Greetings,

I was stopped out of this recently,anticipating a break,which failed to happen.It seems to be setting up a better RR scenario.



Im looking for an entry in the 8 range,with a stop at the 7.70 range,with a target of 11.Any thoughts Spike.

cordially Tom

It doesn't really do much for me bullishly at the moment, and doesn't show that awesome r/r I like to see. Now although the weekly shows room for a move to 10.45 area, the daily is rising wedgy which is a bearish pattern, so I want to see that taken out/resolved first. And until that happens I think it's at risk of falling all the way to 3.00.

I'd be more inclined to look for a gap support or gap fill play?? Or stalk it short even. But good luck if you play it.

[spikefader]

The Naz has been in a rising wedge pattern that broke out on a closing basis to the upside last week. The target calculated objective is a 400 point move higher, up to 2635. This is calculated by taking the height of the wedge at its widest point (week ending 1/23/04 for the high and 8/13/04 as the low) and adding it to the pivot price (resistance line) of the wedge (2235). This is also just below the 38.2% retracement value using the 2000 high and 2002 low, around 2,660.

A weekly close back below 2235 would signal a breakout failure and a likely
retracement back to the support line of the wedge
ON MY E-MAIL

Seems reasonable to me!

[Lyehopper]

Lye, you've got yourself a sweet commission structure there, and that's got to keep your motivation levels high to stay loyal to them. Assuming direct access/better order creation, execution and management isn't important to you then it's a no-brainer; stay with Ameritrade. You can always simply set stops and manually exit rather than feel the need to use limit target orders sitting in place. And like you say, squeeze them to get up-to-speed with IB's platform options. For me, it's more than the commission structure that's important, but I trade differently than you. I need direct access. I need speed. I need futes. I need booktrader and bracket orders. Commissions might be great with retail, but a 5 second guarantee doesn't cut it. 5 seconds is an eternity sometimes Why don't you open a small account with IB and play with it. See if it's going to give you an edge, or something you'll value enough to seriously consider switching.

Hey Spike.... When you say "Direct Access" is that the same as "Direct Order Routing?".... Because Direct order routing is an option I can sign up for at no extra cost at AMTD..... That will enable me to put in a limit order for (say) 5,000 shares of a stock and only (example) show 100 shares on the level II's at my target buy price at a time. Gives me the ability to have "larger" limit orders "less exposed" on the level II's.

Now "Booktrader and Bracket orders" I don't have at AMTD.... What is BookTrader anyway?lol

Hey.... I think I will set me up an account anyway and see what it has to offer dude. What's a minimum required to be able to get daytrading buying power with 25% minimum equity requirement?.... $20k?

[spikefader]

Lye, with the direct order routing with Amtd I wonder if you are still stuck with the 5 second guarantee for fillls....
On direct access, unlike most retail brokers who send your order to a destination via a middleman (thus the 5 seconds), IB's type of direct access routes directly to each exchange through either a T1 or T3 line to over 50 exchanges and market centers around the world (no order routing/execution time lag) and additionally has incorporated the various exchange rules in its SMART-routing technology to ensure that customers obtain true best execution, no matter what product they trade or where they trade. Is AMTD this advanced?? http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en...tStructure.php

Booktrader a one-click immediate transmit of orders/bracket or oca orders - very cool, very fast, very happy.

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/php/webhelp/Making_Trades/Book_Trader/tradeBooktrader.htm

IB has the daytrading 25k equity rule: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en...DayTraders.php