Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[billyjoe]

Spike,
Your SCOTC port is beating the Cheap stock port so far , but that's expected.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Spike,
I have a feeling that Lye is having satellite problems.



Was doing some reading and came upon this quote , could have been written by Spike, but who said it first?

"If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgement is sound , act on it , even though others may hesitate or differ. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right."

billyjoe

I can tell you're all on the edge of your seats trying to figure out who made that quote. No, it wasn't our sage, Spikefader , it was Benjamin Graham in "The Intelligent Investor" 1949.

billyjoe

[Gatorman]

I can tell you're all on the edge of your seats trying to figure out who made that quote. No, it wasn't our sage, Spikefader , it was Benjamin Graham in "The Intelligent Investor" 1949.

billyjoe

Unfortunately, all of us have had days when our stock picks make "Intelligent Investor" seem like a contradition in terms. Here's hoping that future ones like that are few and far between.

[spikefader]

Yup Runner, no headway yet, but that's OK. I'm actually very upbeat about SCOTC, and won't be abandoning it even if this round stops out for the max average of -4% because I really think I'm onto something here.

I will likely end up tweaking it to use hourly PSARs for exiting and having a rule to automatically transfer the eliminated over to whichever of the strongest 3 happens to be nearest intraday support, thus maximizing the momo element. Why you may ask???

Well! Get ready for this: My next post will describe how had I done that, i.e. used hoursly PSAR, the system would be very nicely profitable today and going into tomorrow with a commanding lead over the broader market, with the chance for much more tomorrow.

And not only that, but we would have our Superstar stock right now, at this minute! AET!

Yep, it would be AET with 20 positions loaded onto it. All the other 19 would have been eliminated already! In just 3 days!

I haven't worked out the percentage profit on it yet, but if my calculations are correct, it may be greater than an average of +3% for the portfolio in 3 days, with a tight stop on the AET position using the trailing hourly PSAR, which is now at 93.30ish.

So I'll go calculate it now and post some charts showing the method.

PS. (And that's an astute observation about people abandoning good systems simply cuz they start in a drawdown and they lose patience and let emotion distract them from the fact that the system may be 'sound' and worthwhile).

[Runner]

Spike here is the industry and sub-ind chart that AET belongs to. I put up a 50 week LinReg channel. Now if it can pop old highs it very well may run.

AET IND http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/2698/aet8gf.jpg

AET Sub-IND http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/3851/aetsub7xk.jpg

[IIC]

Preliminary estimate at $105.

This one is rising in down market days.. Is the Big Blue Giant Rising Now?

Check it out.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/S...ibm,PLTADANRBO[PA][D20041004][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Hi Alice...IBM is not on my watchlist...so I cannot offer a decent opinion...But, your link is too long to completely hyperlink....Please feel free to use my link shortening site for those loooooooong links...It's free and I think it is a handy little tool:

http://TrimURL.com

[spikefader]

AET is the 'would-be' Superstock had I only......

Sheeeeeeeeeesh........and I even talked about using hourly PSAR to eliminate in my first post about SCOTC! hehe

OK, folks, I mentioned earlier that had I played SCOTC using hourly PSAR to eliminate as opposed to 4% risk the Superstock would have been discovered already, and the system would be in positive territory, and I speculated +3%. And in reality, it may have been anywhere from 1% to 3% actually.

OK, this exercise is somewhat time consuming, but I did it in order to see if it's worth modifying the elimination rule I've used. Effectively, the hourly PSAR elimination rule will reduce the downside risk even more and really power eliminate and leverage to the strongest stock MUCH quicker.

After looking at the charts below and info of the eliminations you'll see that going into Tuesday night, AET and ARS were the only ones left. Would I have split the risk between them? Probably.

ARS stopped out this morning and 'would have' hit each position with -1.5%, but the others with AET would have benefited from AET's gap up of 3%, so the port would more than likely be positive and growing further after the additional switch overs to AET today.

Elimination Info:
Monday eliminations (x14):
MCO for +0.8%.
BER for -0.5%.
CIB for -1%.
GYI for +0.7%.
CB for +0.4%.
PSYS even
GOL for -1.4%
BCSI for -0.3%
AGN for -0.6%
GEAC even
RATE for -0.6%
CHRW for -0.9%
GILD for -1.5%
MCRS for +0.6%

Survivors after Monday cuts:
SYNC ARS CHS GOOG DJO AET

Eliminated on Tuesday:
SYNC for +6%
DJO for +1.5%
GOOG call it even
CHS for call it even

Survivors after Tuesday cuts:
AES and ARS

Cut on Wednesday (today)
ARS for -0.6% from original position, and whatever several, perhaps up to 10, -1.5% positions.

Superstock = AES loaded and +1 to + 3% average, depending on the variables of adds.

ALL ELIMINATIONS (with the exception of ARS today) when totaled up surprisingly calculated to to be a POSTIVE +2.6%, wow, which averages to 0.13% across all 19 positions, hardly worth even bothering with, so let's call it break even. What's important is that the number is not negative.

So as of Wed morning, had I played the hourly PSAR elimination game, AES would have been fully loaded and in profit right now with 20 positions. The average without question would be positive, perhaps anywhere from +1% to +3.5% average, going into tomorrow with a trailing hourly psar stop at 93, which would be effectively a stop to even. So it would have all boiled down to tomorrow. AET either rocknrolls or stops the system out even. I think I would have preferred this situation to the current one where the port is down -1.5% average with 13 stocks left alive in the hunt for stardom, with more work to do to track them! hehe

I think this is how I will play SCOTC in future dumps. Comments? Agrees or disagrees?

Importantly, the fact is that had I done this, I would be average positive % wise, would have locked in profits for SYNC instead of taking the hit, I would have avoided those 5 other stop outs for -4%, and I'd have found the Superstock already, poised for some serious ROI. And all this in the face of a weak market.

Most importantly, AET did exactly what I was looking for in a Superstock; it was strong in the face of a weak market, when the portfolio needed it to be, as you can clearly see in this nice comparison chart:



Here are the all the PSAR charts to show you I'm not making this mess up (there's 20 of 'em so quite a scroll job) :

[spikefader]

OK Lye, I'm runnin some filtering on that short list now. I got distracted with all that stuff and had to get it outa my head before it disappeared! haha.

[spikefader]

Spike's Slime of the Swamp© - SSOTS

Here ya go Spike some real stinkers, 196 stocks.... Sorted by RV.

I like to use this search to find some of my short candidates. Notice VRTX shows up near the top. I've got several other short searches I've created too....

CNVR, AMR, IDIX, GSL, ALSK, REDF, VRTX*, SNMY, BCRX, KERX, SBAC, DOVP, ICOS, MNTA, MYG, CRXL, ENCY, FXEN, GY, OSIP, THRX,C ONR, LNG, TELK, ABGX, IIJI, SSRI, MYGM, RMBS, ADVS, AX, ERTS, NFLD, OATS, TSY, DWA, REGN, ISLE, ISBC, NKTR, LBTYK, SLAB, CY, ATVI, ERES, JBLU, MVL, PDG, WBMD, PTV, SRZ, DRC, MATK, SMTC, MNKD, NILE, FDRY, SIL, TER, SEBL, COT, PRX, EFII, LNCR, COCO, MGAM, MOH, BRKS, EP, BSG, AHG, AXCA, ODSY, STM, CCMP, MGLN, ORB, MCIP, SWY, WPI, HOTT, SHPGY, LEAP, NRG, WGII, ABC, ADI, CPWM, SUG, VVTV, PRGO, XRX, TAP, SCHL, SNE, UNS, CCU, FWLT, LPX, MNC,PHTN,AM, ANTP, COLM, RCII, SSCC, PIR, CRA, TSN, FTE, BGP, MMC, TECD, ABS, BOBE, GFF, HELE, JNY, NYT, SRP, ATN, AXL, BTH, CI, JRN, KRI, LPL, PBY, ARM, CKEC, DJ, OMX, RDSB, SI, SRE, FNM, IGT, AFG, TK, FBN, INTL, SUP, KWD, SXT, FNF, IFF LZB, RSH, DDS, IKN, PA, WOR, FPL, OMG, CZN, DCX, OFG, BNK, MAT, MTLM, SLE, WLDAE, SCG, PEG, WDR, BLS, VLKAY, NI, NLY, RAI, GAS, SBS, CAG, PSD, RGC, XEL, AEA, HRB, LEA, SAFM, BMY, KSE, CE, ABN, PGN, GXP, SBC, NYB, VLCCF, GM,FBC,GMR, FRO, SAX, IMH, NEW

Here's my top 10 stinkers Spike.... I've removed any drug stocks and any relitivly new issues.... because they are so unpredictable.

I simply chose ones with the worst (negative) growth.

(1) GSL
(2) AXL
(3) BTH
(4) CKEC
(5) CNVR
(6) ERTS
(7) GY
( KWD
(9) LEA
(10) MNC

OK dude, just filtered those 196 and have a short list of 30! Now bear in mind, I was brutal with the cut, and was looking for a specific thing: MOMO!

So these 30 fit the momo drop criteria, and I may have culled some really good shorts one might sell into daily strength, ya know!?! But these 30 are Spike's Slime of the Swamp©! haha

They are momo-ing with bearish PSAR with negative money flow. I haven't looked at the patterns for them, so caution for any that are near support levels and might bounce. Ideally, look for channel turn downs with descending triangle intraday pattern, OR wait for strength of these to a daily falling channel and with intraday like SHS with neckline break or double top.

And I like how 3 of mine (BTH, GY, and LEA) are in your Top 10 list!! (My next post contains detailed comment on those 3 charts for ya).

And here's the Slime© in alphabetical order:
AEA ALSK ARM BTH CAG CE COT CRXL DDS EP GM GY HOTT LEA MATK MCIP MTLM MVL OMG OSIP PHTN PRGO SCG SCHL SLE SRE UNS WBMD WLDAE WPI

Hope they turn out to be as pathetic as their potential momo suggests. May all this Slime© rise to the top of the Biggest % Losers list!

Definately running a SSOTS hourly PSAR elimination system for that selection I think. Starting at next open! I'll watch em and track it.

[spikefader]

OK, the three matching Slime BTH, GY and LEA:

BTH: big bear flag on weekly and working on a channel turn down on the daily....maybe tomorrow if it's weak enough. That would be worth chasing, especially with a descending triangle pattern intraday. If it loses 17.41 support dude, look out below! Look for 9.00 support I think.

GY: forming descending triangle on the weekly also SHS with neck break is there, and smaller descending triangle on the daily, maybe wait for sell signal on the 20-day psar/mfi chart I use... might go to 10.00 or 12.00ish.

LEA: In a 3rd down of 5 of a bigger 5 on the weekly, so it should go 345 before a larger abc. The last channel short on the daily was 33.55, with a channel turn down at current levels recently, so and a smaller turn down just today, so if it gives a descending triangle pattern intraday tomorrow, definately worth chasing to look for the 345 move. I see this one going to 20.00 and possibly 14.00 eventually.

[alice4321us]

IIC This is Cool!! Thanks

Hi Alice...IBM is not on my watchlist...so I cannot offer a decent opinion...But, your link is too long to completely hyperlink....Please feel free to use my link shortening site for those loooooooong links...It's free and I think it is a handy little tool:

http://TrimURL.com

New IBM Chart URL:

http://trimurl.com/3B7

[billyjoe]

Spike,
BTH , GY , and LEA are slime ? You're talking about my retirement stocks there !
Just kidding , but don't you think one of the best ways to rile up a bull is to start charting for shorts ?

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

GREAT! runs chills down my spine!

OK, the three matching Slime BTH, GY and LEA:

BTH: big bear flag on weekly and working on a channel turn down on the daily....maybe tomorrow if it's weak enough. That would be worth chasing, especially with a descending triangle pattern intraday. If it loses 17.41 support dude, look out below! Look for 9.00 support I think.

GY: forming descending triangle on the weekly also SHS with neck break is there, and smaller descending triangle on the daily, maybe wait for sell signal on the 20-day psar/mfi chart I use... might go to 10.00 or 12.00ish.

LEA: In a 3rd down of 5 of a bigger 5 on the weekly, so it should go 345 before a larger abc. The last channel short on the daily was 33.55, with a channel turn down at current levels recently, so and a smaller turn down just today, so if it gives a descending triangle pattern intraday tomorrow, definately worth chasing to look for the 345 move. I see this one going to 20.00 and possibly 14.00 eventually.

Short trades are MUCH more fun than trading long.... something about it just seems so.... WRONG!!!! LOL!

[spikefader]

haha Lye.

OK, based on today's action with hourly PSAR, I short-listed that 30 even futher, and these are the ones I'm tracking short now, just opened short for all of them.

I'll eliminate using hourly PSAR and see if we can catch a good momo ride down with one of these:

[spikefader]

SCOTC: Port gained a little strength today, and we're down to 11 stocks from the 20.

Closing out CB -1.19% and BER -1.97% as both their daily psar now bearish.

That gives me 3 opens to reallocate today, so I'll go check the charts and see. AET is definately one, I'll add to that one soon.