Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Runner]

Spike what is your take on MTXX. I like the spike down and nice pop on it.
Do ya think NGPS is setting up short?

[mystiky]

I sold my IFO today at 17.50. Made some decent $$. Thinking of re-enterting it around the 15.90 levels.

Anyone with thoughts?

Hi Spike!

Well, on Friday I came across an interesting stock, to say the least.

There were rumours flying around that if IFO would close above $15, it was going to join the IBD 100 list. Well, it closed at 15.68 and did indeed debut at #40 on the list (first time ever appearance).

What makes this very interesting is that the float on IFO is only 1.4 million shares. It seems that there are at least 110,000 shares shorted (as of November 15 NASDAQ numbers filed), and around 165,000 shares are currently being held by some mututal funds.

Now, the amazing thing is the stock has run-up from $5 to $15 in a month(due to amazing earnings and Samsung news) not one insider has sold a share! I also think that on November 15 (when those short-sales numbers filed) the stock price was $9. I bet that there are many more shorts by now, since it has gone up 80% from that level by now.

So I am thinking that by now the trading float is UNDER 1 million shares, and I decided to jump in and got some at around the 14.70 level.

What does your "crystal ball" say for this one? I am not an expert, but the chart doesn't look that extended and with the new IBD money coming in on Monday (and a potenetial of a major short squeeze), what do you say?

Also, others -- please feel free to comment. I hope that Spike doens't mind this...

[spikefader]

Hi Spike!

Well, on Friday I came across an interesting stock, to say the least.

There were rumours flying around that if IFO would close above $15, it was going to join the IBD 100 list. Well, it closed at 15.68 and did indeed debut at #40 on the list (first time ever appearance).

What makes this very interesting is that the float on IFO is only 1.4 million shares. It seems that there are at least 110,000 shares shorted (as of November 15 NASDAQ numbers filed), and around 165,000 shares are currently being held by some mututal funds.

Now, the amazing thing is the stock has run-up from $5 to $15 in a month(due to amazing earnings and Samsung news) not one insider has sold a share! I also think that on November 15 (when those short-sales numbers filed) the stock price was $9. I bet that there are many more shorts by now, since it has gone up 80% from that level by now.

So I am thinking that by now the trading float is UNDER 1 million shares, and I decided to jump in and got some at around the 14.70 level.

What does your "crystal ball" say for this one? I am not an expert, but the chart doesn't look that extended and with the new IBD money coming in on Monday (and a potenetial of a major short squeeze), what do you say?

Also, others -- please feel free to comment. I hope that Spike doens't mind this...

Not at all; I encourage everyone to post thoughts.

For ISO my crystall ball at first glance was that it's a bit of a chase now. But if you were looking at the EW count, I can see a small first set of 5 waves, an abc correction that was bought for a second set of 5 waves, and this last push is probably the completion of the 5th, so look for an abc correction wave pattern and then perhaps another set of 5 waves up. I would recommend you stalk this one for perhaps a 13.57 gap fill support play. A triple in 5 weeks is something you've got to be very disciplined with, cuz if it does abc then attempt another set and truncates and fails at a double top, you don't wanna be a bagholder if it profit-takes quickly. They can be sharp. I'm going to challenge you to do a chart for the count I describe, post it here, and I'll correct any errors for you. Good luck with it!

[spikefader]

I sold my IFO today at 17.50. Made some decent $$. Thinking of re-enterting it around the 15.90 levels.
Anyone with thoughts?

lol, I just get around to replying to you and I see this post! Great exit there; congrats. That's cooooooooooooool. What was your reasoning for exit? I can see some waves that you could have counted intraday to justify it.

[spikefader]

Spike what is your take on MTXX. I like the spike down and nice pop on it.
Do ya think NGPS is setting up short?

NGPS actually sets up long from the minor channel long on the weekly last week, and earlier channel turn up from 37.15 weekly candle. When I consider the very boomish action late in 2004, it's got a really good upside potential. First target 40.00ish, and new highs over 52.00 in months ahead. Now that bias would be switched to neutral at a failure of the channel long on the weekly.

MTXX impressive move today. I think 21.00-21.50 is pretty tough channel resistance considering the sharp correction.

[mystiky]

IFO & Luck...

Spike,

I exited IFO only for the reason of "not wanting to be piggish". I made a gain of almost 3 points on it, so why push it? Just as you said, when a stock goes up that much in a month, you dont want to be the "last one" holding the bag.

What made me sell was the action at the time when it got around the 17.50 level. Bigger blocks started to go off, without the price moving either way. I have noticed with other stocks that I watch on level 2 that when this happens, its usually large short sales or profit taking by the BIG BOYS and they are selling to the desperate shorts/late commers, who are scarmbling to cover.

Also, Ialmost re-entered the stock at 16.70 later on in the day, but passed on it. Wanted to see where it closed today and the total volume. Something is telling me that if tommorow it cannot get above the 17.80 (or 1 mark, it maybe a short there for a revisit down to the 16 level.

Anyhow -- the IBD news is now out, played with and I will be on the sidelines for a little while.

I wish I could draw charts as well as you. I dont even have the software that does it. I use SharpCharts (free verssion) to check 10/30/50/200 moving day avgs. I also look at the RSI and the Stochastics. Thats about it...

I am sure upon hearing this, you are about to have a heart attack. But it's the best I can do for now. I am eager to learn, and this website has been a tremendous help!

THANKS AGAIN!

lol, I just get around to replying to you and I see this post! Great exit there; congrats. That's cooooooooooooool. What was your reasoning for exit? I can see some waves that you could have counted intraday to justify it.

[Runner]

NGPS actually sets up long from the minor channel long on the weekly last week, and earlier channel turn up from 37.15 weekly candle. When I consider the very boomish action late in 2004, it's got a really good upside potential. First target 40.00ish, and new highs over 52.00 in months ahead. Now that bias would be switched to neutral at a failure of the channel long on the weekly.

MTXX impressive move today. I think 21.00-21.50 is pretty tough channel resistance considering the sharp correction.

Spike, thanx for pointing out the weekly on NGPS, I did not see it.

[spikefader]

Spike,
I wish I could draw charts as well as you. I dont even have the software that does it. I use SharpCharts (free verssion) to check 10/30/50/200 moving day avgs. I also look at the RSI and the Stochastics. Thats about it...
I am sure upon hearing this, you are about to have a heart attack. But it's the best I can do for now. I am eager to learn, and this website has been a tremendous help!
I exited IFO only for the reason of "not wanting to be piggish".
THANKS AGAIN!

But you CAN draw charts like me with a little practice and using SmartCharts free version (for the daily charts). Just click on 'annotate' and that's what I use for dailies. It's got the best raff channels out there for the way I use them. See below picture.

and on IFO: hehe, well it worked wonders! (Get in the habit of counting those waves too....cuz when there are clear sets of 5 with abc patterns then that can help you spot the potential best areas to get out too.)

Nah, no heart attack. Smart people can do very well with limited resources, so you've proven with IFO that you're smart! hehe. Free intraday charts are out there, albeit with 15 min delay, but it's a really big help though if you can see real-time.

Make 'em pretty

[spikefader]

Spike, thanx for pointing out the weekly on NGPS, I did not see it.

Sure. Today NGPS wasn't inspiring, and any weaker tomorrow and there's a channel turn down on the weekly in progress. Right now it's flat. At first glance, it looks quite capable of testing 20.00 again. But it's still got bullish bias while last week's 26.66 holds. But there are so many better looking charts out there - I think anyway.

[mystiky]

Charts & CRM

Spike!

Wow - never knew this about the chart drawing and how easy it is. Will start trying it out! Thanks again!

By the way -- how does that chart of CRM look to you....???

so many shorts, but its getting downgrade by brokers almost daily and the insiders are dumping like crazy...but just keeps running up and up and up.... but I think that it will be sold off as soon as 2006 starts. Mutual funds trying to get on it to show that "they owned it" in 2005. When it comes down, I think it will REALLY come down.

Your thoughts?

[spikefader]

You'll notice I'm bullish bias today.

Just took YM swing long at 10824. 35 point stop.

[spikefader]

SCOTC - Creme of the Crop #1 (from Veteran's Day Dump)
Looking good now

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Spike I missed a good short opp on DRL,when you have time could you point out the whisper of weakness?It could really tank if this latest rally was a bull trap.

cordially Tom

[B.J]

Spike, I'll get it for this, but those aren't boogers hanging off your bull's (avatar) nose are they?

[spikefader]

Snort!
Now just hope it isn't going to be a blow off top! Come on bulls; hang in there!